Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls

Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls
Author: Gurnain Kaur Pasricha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2020-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513546104

This paper borrows the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions from monetary policy literature to ask whether capital controls respond to macroprudential or mercantilist motivations. I explore this question using a novel, weekly dataset on capital control actions in 21 emerging economies from 2001 to 2015. I introduce a new proxy for mercantilist motivations: the weighted appreciation of an emerging-market currency against its top five trade competitors. This proxy Granger causes future net initiations of non-tariff barriers in most countries. Emerging markets systematically respond to both mercantilist and macroprudential motivations. Policymakers respond to trade competitiveness concerns by using both instruments—inflow tightening and outflow easing. They use only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. Policy is acyclical to foreign debt; however, high levels of this debt reduces countercyclicality to mercantilist concerns. Higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices, and having an inflation targeting regime with non-freely floating exchange rates, increase responsiveness to mercantilist concerns.

Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?
Author: Mr.Anton Korinek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2015-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513506463

International capital flows can create significant financial instability in emerging economies because of pecuniary externalities associated with exchange rate movements. Does this make it optimal to impose capital controls or should policymakers rely on domestic macroprudential regulation? This paper presents a tractable model to show that it is desirable to employ both types of instruments: Macroprudential regulation reduces overborrowing, while capital controls increase the aggregate net worth of the economy as a whole by also stimulating savings. The two policy measures should be set higher the greater an economy's debt burden and the higher domestic inequality. In our baseline calibration based on the East Asian crisis countries, we find optimal capital controls and macroprudential regulation in the magnitude of 2 percent. In advanced countries where the risk of sharp exchange rate depreciations is more limited, the role for capital controls subsides. However, macroprudential regulation remains essential to mitigate booms and busts in asset prices.

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
Author: Mr.R. G Gelos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2019-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513522906

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Capital Control Measures

Capital Control Measures
Author: Andrés Fernández
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2015-04-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484332342

This paper presents a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data in Schindler (2009) and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), this dataset includes additional asset categories, more countries, and a longer time period. The paper discusses in detail the construction of the dataset and characterizes the data with respect to the prevalence and correlation of controls across asset categories and between controls on inflows and controls on outflows, the aggregation of the separate categories into broader indicators, and the comparison of this dataset with other indicators of capital controls.

Capital Flow Deflection

Capital Flow Deflection
Author: Paolo Giordani
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2014-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498317499

This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.

Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework

Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2011-02-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498339352

Emerging markets (EMs) are experiencing a surge in capital inflows, lifting asset prices and growth prospects. While inflows are typically beneficial for receiving countries, inflow surges can carry macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This paper reviews the recent experience of EMs in dealing with capital inflows and suggests a possible framework for IMF policy advice on the spectrum of measures available to policymakers to manage inflows, including macroeconomic policies, prudential measures and capital controls. Illustrative applications of this framework suggest that it may be appropriate for several countries, based on their current circumstances, to consider prudential measures or capital controls in response to capital inflows. The suggested framework is intended to inform staff policy advice to all Fund members with open capital accounts. It forms part of a broader effort to sharpen Fund surveillance, preserve evenhandedness, and foster greater global policy coordination. As indicated in the Supplement to this paper, this broader effort includes the development of “global rules of the game” on macroprudential policies, capital account liberalization, and reserve adequacy, and the preparation of spillover reports assessing spillovers from the five systemic economies—all of which will inform the current and broader framework being developed.

Managing Capital Flows

Managing Capital Flows
Author: Masahiro Kawai
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 184980687X

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.