Essays on Equilibrium Asset Pricing

Essays on Equilibrium Asset Pricing
Author: Aoxiang Yang (Ph.D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation is developed to address unresolved issues in the asset pricing literature, focusing on both risk premium levels and dynamics. Chapter 1 addresses short-horizon risk premium dynamics. In the data, stock market volatility weakly or even negatively predicts short-run equity and variance risk premia, challenging positive risk-return trade-offs at the heart of leading asset pricing models. I show that a puzzling negative volatility-risk premia relationship concentrates in scattered high-uncertainty states, which occur about 20\% of the time. While at other times, the relationship is strongly positive. I develop a micro-founded learning model in which due to learning frictions investors underreact to structural breaks in high-volatility periods and overreact to transitory variance shocks in normal times. The model can successfully explain the novel time-varying volatility-risk premia relationship at short and long horizons. The model can further account for many other data features, such as a robust positive correlation between equity and variance risk premium, the leverage effect, and negative observations of equity and variance risk premia at the onsets of recessions. Chapter 2, coauthored with Professor Bjorn Eraker, focuse on equilibrium derivatives pricing. It is motivated by the observation that leading asset pricing models typically can not explain the levels or dynamics of VIX options prices. We develop a tractable equilibrium pricing model to explain observed characteristics in equity returns, VIX futures, S\&P 500 options, and VIX options data based on affine jump-diffusive state dynamics and representative agents endowed with Duffie-Epstein recursive preferences. A specific model aimed at capturing VIX options prices and other asset market data is shown to successfully replicate the salient features of consumption, dividends, and asset market data, including the first two moments of VIX futures returns, the average implied volatilities in SPX and VIX options, and first and higher-order moments of VIX options returns. In the data, we document a time variation in the shape of VIX option implied volatility and a time-varying hedging relationship between VIX and SPX options which our model both captures. Our model also matches many other asset pricing moments such as equity premia, variance risk premia, risk-free interest rates, and short-horizon return predictability. To derive our specific model, we first develop a general framework for pricing assets under recursive Duffie-Epstein preferences with IES set to one under the assumption that state variables follow affine jump diffusions, as in \citet{DPS00}. Relative to the literature, our framework has a clear marginal contribution that it is an endowment-based equilibrium model with (i) clearly stated affine state variable dynamics and (ii) precisely characterized equilibrium value function, risk-free rate, prices of risks, and risk-neutral state dynamics. We prove our state-price density is a precise $IES\to1$ limit of that approximately solved in \citet{ErakShal08}. The recursive preference assumption implies that higher-order conditional moments of the economic fundamental, such as its growth volatility and volatility-of-volatility, are explicitly priced in equilibrium. Since VIX derivatives depend on these factors, this in turn implies that the former carry non-zero risk premia.

Essays on Volatility Risk, Asset Returns and Consumption-based Asset Pricing

Essays on Volatility Risk, Asset Returns and Consumption-based Asset Pricing
Author: Young Il Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2008
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

Abstract: My dissertation addresses two main issues regarding asset returns: econometric modeling of asset returns in chapters 2 and 3 and puzzling features of the standard consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) in chapters 4 and 5. Chapter 2 develops a new theoretical derivation for the GARCH-skew-t model as a mixture distribution of normal and inverted-chi-square in order to represent the three important stylized facts of financial data: volatility clustering, skewness and thick-tails. The GARCH-skew-t is same as the GARCH-t model if the skewness parameter is shut-off. The GARCH-skew-t is applied to U.S. excess stock market returns, and the equity premium is computed based on the estimated model. It is shown that skewness and kurtosis can have significant effect on the equity premium and that with sufficiently negatively skewed distribution of the excess returns, a finite equity premium can be assured, contrary to the case of the Student t in which an infinite equity premium arises. Chapter 3 provides a new empirical guidance for modeling a skewed and thick-tailed error distribution along with GARCH effects based on the theoretical derivation for the GARCH-skew-t model and empirical findings on the Realized Volatility (RV) measure, constructed from the summation of higher frequency squared (demeaned) returns. Based on an 80-year sample of U.S. daily stock market returns, it is found that the distribution of monthly RV conditional on past returns is approximately the inverted-chi-square while monthly market returns, conditional on RV and past returns are normally distributed with RV in both mean and variance. These empirical findings serve as the building blocks underlying the GARCH-skew-t model. Thus, the findings provide a new empirical justification for the GARCH-skew-t modeling of equity returns. Moreover, the implied GARCH-skew-t model accurately represents the three important stylized facts for equity returns. Chapter 4 provides a possible solution to asset return puzzles such as high equity premium and low riskfree rate based on parameter uncertainty. It is shown that parameter uncertainty underlying the data generating process can lead to a negatively skewed and thick-tailed distribution that can explain most of the high equity premium and low riskfree rate even with the degree of risk aversion below 10 in the CRRA utility function. Chapter 5 investigates a possible link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic risk. This chapter studies why U.S. stock market volatility has not changed much during the "great moderation" era of the 1980s in contrast to the prediction made by the standard C-CAPM. A new model is developed such that aggregate consumption is decomposed into stock and non-stock source of income so that stock dividends are a small part of consumption. This new model predicts that the great moderation of macroeconomic risk must have originated from declining volatility of shocks to the relatively large non-stock factor of production while shocks to the relatively small stock assets have been persistently volatile during the moderation era. Furthermore, the model shows that the systematic risk of holding equity is positively associated with the stock share of total wealth.

The Equity Risk Premium

The Equity Risk Premium
Author: William N. Goetzmann
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 568
Release: 2006-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195148142

This book aims to create a strong understanding of the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the research and anaylsis of two scholars who are experts in this field, this volume presents the key issues that are paramount to investors, including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.

Essays on the Term Structure of Volatility and Option Returns

Essays on the Term Structure of Volatility and Option Returns
Author: Vincent Campasano
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

The first essay studies the dynamics of equity option implied volatility and shows that they depend both upon the option's time to maturity (horizon) and slope of the implied volatility term structure for the underlying asset (term struc ture). We propose a simple, illustrative framework which intuitively captures these dynamics. Guided by our framework, we examine a number of volatility trading strategies across horizon, and the extent to which profitability of trading strategies is due to an interaction between term structure and realized volatility. While profitable trading strategies based upon term structure exist for both long and short horizon options, this interaction requires that positions in long horizon options be very different than those required for short horizon options. Equity option returns depend upon both term structure and horizon, but for index options, implied volatility term structure slope negatively predicts returns. While the carry trade has been applied profitably across asset classes and to index v volatility, given this difference in index and equity implied volatility dynamics, I examine the carry trade in the equity volatility market in the second essay. I show that the carry trade in equity volatility produces significant returns, and unlike the returns to carry in other asset classes, is not exposed to liquidity or volatility risks and negatively loads on market risk. A long volatility carry portfolio, after transactions costs, remains significantly profitable and negatively loads on market risks, challenging traditional asset pricing theories. Overwriting an index position with call options creates a portfolio with fixed exposures to market and volatility risk premia. I allow for time-varying allocations to volatility and the market by conditioning on the slope of the implied volatility term structure. I show that a three asset portfolio holding a VIX futures position, the SandP 500 Index and cash triples the returns of the index and more than doubles the risk-adjusted returns of the covered call while maintaining a return volatility roughly equal to that of the SandP 500 Index.

Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing

Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Gang Li
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation contains three essays on empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, I study the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns of risky assets. I find that when the true asset pricing model cannot be identified, the idiosyncratic volatility obtained from a misspecified model contains information regarding the hedge portfolio in Merton's (1973) ICAPM. Empirically, I find that from 1815 to 2018, a combination of equal-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (EWIV) and value-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (VWIV) can strongly forecast stock market returns over short- and long-term horizons. Furthermore, EWIV and VWIV jointly can explain the cross-section of average stock returns. I show that the combination of EWIV and VWIV is a proxy for the conditional covariance risk in the ICAPM. The deduction also provides new insights concerning the tail risk measure proposed by Kelly and Jiang (2014). The second essay is a joint work with Bing Han. We propose a new and robust predictor of stock market returns and real economic activities based on information from equity options. We aggregate the difference in implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put options across stocks and find that the aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS) is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns. We attribute the predictive power to common informed trading in equity options instead of time-varying risk premium. The third essay, coauthored with Yoontae Jeon and Raymond Kan, studies the expected option return under an extended Black-Scholes model that incorporates the presence of stock return autocorrelation. We show that expected returns of both call and put options are increasing functions of return autocorrelation coefficient of the underlying stock. We find strong empirical evidence from the cross-section of average returns of equity options to support this prediction. Average returns of calls and puts as well as straddle returns all show monotonically increasing relationship with the degree of underlying stock's return autocorrelation coefficient. We also examine how the information on stock return autocorrelation helps investors to improve the out-of-sample performance of their portfolios.

Essays in Asset Pricing and Volatility Risk

Essays in Asset Pricing and Volatility Risk
Author: Gill Segal
Publisher:
Total Pages: 448
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

In the third chapter ("From Private-Belief Formation to Aggregate-Vol Oscillation") I propose a model that relies on learning and informational asymmetry, for the endogenous amplification of the conditional volatility in macro aggregates and of cross-sectional dispersion during economic slowdowns. The model quantitatively matches the fluctuations in the conditional volatility of macroeconomic growth rates, while generating realistic real business-cycle moments. Consistently with the data, shifts in the correlation structure between firms are an important source of aggregate volatility fluctuations. Cross-firm correlations rise in downturns due to a higher weight that firms place on public information, which causes their beliefs and policies to comove more strongly.

Essays on Asset Pricing and Portfolio Optimization

Essays on Asset Pricing and Portfolio Optimization
Author: Christian Koeppel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

WThis doctoral thesis focuses on the effects of investor sentiment on asset pricing and the challenges of portfolio optimization under parameter uncertainty. The first essay "Sentiment risk premia in the cross-section of global equity" applies a recently developed sentiment proxy to the construction of a new risk factor and provides a comprehensive understanding of its role in sentiment-augmented asset pricing models for international equity indices. We empirically demonstrate the existence of a statistically significant and economically relevant sentiment premium. Differentiating between developed and emerging markets we reveal different patterns of return reversals / persistence. Our results contribute to the explanation of global cross-sectional average excess returns, demonstrating superiority in terms of predictive power when compared to competing definitions of sentiment. The second essay "Does social media sentiment matter in the pricing of U.S. stocks?" finds that the inclusion of micro-grounded, social media-based sentiment significantly improves the performance of the five-factor model from Fama and French (2015, 2017). This holds for different industry and style portfolios such as size, value, profitability, and investment. Applying a robust GMM estimator, the sentiment risk premium provides the missing component in the behavioral asset pricing theory of Shefrin and Belotti (2008) and (partially) resolves the pricing puzzles of small extreme growth, small extreme investment stocks and small stocks that invest heavily despite low profitability. The third essay "Diversifying estimation errors: An efficient averaging rule for portfolio optimization" proposes a combination of established minimum-variance strategies to minimize the expected out-of-sample variance. The proposed averaging rule overcomes the strategy selection problem and diversifies estimation errors of the strategies included in our rule. Extensive simulations show that the contributions of estimation errors to the out-of-sample variances are uncorrelated between the considered strategies. We therefore conclude that averaging over multiple strategies offers sizable diversification benefits.

Essays in Asset Pricing and Institutional Investors

Essays in Asset Pricing and Institutional Investors
Author: Qi Shang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

The thesis includes three papers: 1. Limited Arbitrage Analysis of CDS Basis Trading By modeling time-varying funding costs and demand pressure as the limits to arbitrage, the paper shows that assets with identical cash-flows have not only different expected returns, but also different expected returns in excess of funding costs. I solve the model in closed-form to show that the arbitrage on the CDS and corporate bond market is a risky arbitrage. The sign of the expected excess return of the arbitrage is decided by the sign and size of market frictions rather than the observed price discrepancy. The size and risk of the arbitrage excess return are increasing in market friction levels and assets' maturities. High levels of market frictions also destruct the positive predictability of credit spread term structure on credit spread changes. Results from the empirical section support the above-mentioned model predictions. 2. General Equilibrium Analysis of Stochastic Benchmarking This paper applies a closed-form continuous-time consumption-based general equilibrium model to analyze the equilibrium implications when some agents in the economy promise to beat a stochastic benchmark at an intermediate date. For very risky benchmark, these agents increase volatility and risk premium in the equilibrium. On the other hand, when they promise to beat less risky benchmark, they decrease volatility and risk premium in the equilibrium. In both cases, the degree of effect is state-dependent and stock price rises. 3. Institutional Asset Pricing with Heterogenous Belief (Co-authored) We propose an equilibrium asset pricing model in which investors with heterogeneous beliefs care about relative performance. We find that the relative performance concern leads agents to trade more similarly, which has two effects. First, similar trading directly decreases volatility. Second, similar trading decreases the impact of the dominant agents. When the economy is extremely good or bad, the second effect is dominant so that the relative performance concern enlarges the excess volatility caused by heterogeneous beliefs. When the first effect is dominant, which corresponds to a normal economy, the volatility is lower than without the relative performance concern. Moreover, this paper shows that the relative performance concern also influences investors' holdings, stock prices and risk premia.

Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing

Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Fei Fang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation focuses on empirical asset pricing, including stock and options pricing. In the first and third chapter, we examine the linkage between stock market and options market at firm level. In Chapter Two, we documents the impact that systematic variance risk has for option prices of individual stocks. In the first chapter, we study the relation between future stock returns and option-based measures. We find that the options-based measure - future stock return relation is strongest for relatively less liquid stocks. After taking transaction costs into consideration, the risk-adjusted returns of the long-short stock portfolios do not differ significantly between stock liquidity groups. This chapter provides better understanding on the options-based stock return predictability. In the second chapter, we construct novel factors to mimic variance risk related to firm characteristics using individual stocks' variance risk premium. We then document that market variance risk premium and variance risk mimicking factors have strong explanatory power for option prices. Our new analytic framework links the variance risk factors related to firm characteristics to the individual equity option price structure. In the third chapter, we provide additional empirical results on how stock price can affect option prices. Our preliminary results reveal a link between the informational inefficiency of stock price and option prices. We find that a greater departure from random walk leads to a lower level of implied volatility (compared to realized volatility) and a steeper implied volatility curve.

Essays in Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice

Essays in Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice
Author: Philipp Karl Illeditsch
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

In the Ơ̐1rst essay, I decompose inƠ̐2ation risk into (i) a part that is correlated with real returns on the market portfolio and factors that determine investor0́9s preferences and investment opportunities and (ii) a residual part. I show that only the Ơ̐1rst part earns a risk premium. All nominal Treasury bonds, including the nominal money-market account, are equally exposed to the residual part except inƠ̐2ation-protected Treasury bonds, which provide a means to hedge it. Every investor should put 100% of his wealth in the market portfolio and inƠ̐2ation-protected Treasury bonds and hold a zero-investment portfolio of nominal Treasury bonds and the nominal money market account. In the second essay, I solve the dynamic asset allocation problem of Ơ̐1nite lived, constant relative risk averse investors who face inƠ̐2ation risk and can invest in cash, nominal bonds, equity, and inƠ̐2ation-protected bonds when the investment opportunityset is determined by the expected inƠ̐2ation rate. I estimate the model with nominal bond, inƠ̐2ation, and stock market data and show that if expected inƠ̐2ation increases, then investors should substitute inƠ̐2ation-protected bonds for stocks and they should borrow cash to buy long-term nominal bonds. In the lastessay, I discuss how heterogeneity in preferences among investors withexternal non-addictive habit forming preferences aƠ̐0ects the equilibrium nominal term structure of interest rates in a pure continuous time exchange economy and complete securities markets. Aggregate real consumption growth and inƠ̐2ation are exogenously speciƠ̐1ed and contain stochastic components thataƠ̐0ect their means andvolatilities. There are two classes of investors who have external habit forming preferences and diƠ̐0erent localcurvatures oftheir utility functions. The eƠ̐0ects of time varying risk aversion and diƠ̐0erent inƠ̐2ation regimes on the nominal short rate and the nominal market price of risk are explored, and simple formulas for nominal bonds, real bonds, and inƠ̐2ation risk premia that can be numerically evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques are provided.