Essays on the Term Structure of Volatility and Option Returns

Essays on the Term Structure of Volatility and Option Returns
Author: Vincent Campasano
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

The first essay studies the dynamics of equity option implied volatility and shows that they depend both upon the option's time to maturity (horizon) and slope of the implied volatility term structure for the underlying asset (term struc ture). We propose a simple, illustrative framework which intuitively captures these dynamics. Guided by our framework, we examine a number of volatility trading strategies across horizon, and the extent to which profitability of trading strategies is due to an interaction between term structure and realized volatility. While profitable trading strategies based upon term structure exist for both long and short horizon options, this interaction requires that positions in long horizon options be very different than those required for short horizon options. Equity option returns depend upon both term structure and horizon, but for index options, implied volatility term structure slope negatively predicts returns. While the carry trade has been applied profitably across asset classes and to index v volatility, given this difference in index and equity implied volatility dynamics, I examine the carry trade in the equity volatility market in the second essay. I show that the carry trade in equity volatility produces significant returns, and unlike the returns to carry in other asset classes, is not exposed to liquidity or volatility risks and negatively loads on market risk. A long volatility carry portfolio, after transactions costs, remains significantly profitable and negatively loads on market risks, challenging traditional asset pricing theories. Overwriting an index position with call options creates a portfolio with fixed exposures to market and volatility risk premia. I allow for time-varying allocations to volatility and the market by conditioning on the slope of the implied volatility term structure. I show that a three asset portfolio holding a VIX futures position, the SandP 500 Index and cash triples the returns of the index and more than doubles the risk-adjusted returns of the covered call while maintaining a return volatility roughly equal to that of the SandP 500 Index.

Option Markets, Return Predictability and Term Structure

Option Markets, Return Predictability and Term Structure
Author: Yanhui Zhao
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of three essays on eliciting information about underlying assets from the equity options markets, and improving our understanding of the term structure cost of equity. In the first essay, we find that high standard deviations of the volatility premium, of implied volatility innovations, and of the volatility term structure spread in equity options predict low underlying returns. This return predictability is not explained by the levels of these three variables, or by volatility of volatility, other known firm characteristics, or common risk factor models. We find support for interpreting the standard deviations of these option-based measures as forward-looking proxies of heterogeneous beliefs. In the second essay, we find that stocks with high risk-neutral skewness (RNS) exhibit abnormal performance driven by rebounds following poor performance. This behavior connects it to momentum crashes caused by reversal in past losers. In periods of post-recession rebounds and high market volatility when momentum crashes occur, a zero-investment high-low RNS portfolio has significant positive abnormal returns. The momentum anomaly is strongest (weakest) in stocks with the lowest (highest) RNS, consistent with the positive relationship of RNS to momentum crashes. These results hold controlling for trading frictions, other firm characteristics, and risk factors. We generalize our findings to all stocks by constructing an RNS factor-mimicking portfolio SKEW and find that a WML strategy that avoids high SKEW beta stocks has superior performance to the baseline and risk-managed WML strategies. In the third essay, we estimate the cost of equity capital term structure for the insurance industry as a whole, and several insurance sectors such as life/health and property/casualty. We use a vector autoregressive process to jointly model the dynamics of expected cash flows, beta, and the market risk premium. We obtain a closed form solution for the discount rate appropriate for each maturity. Our empirical analysis shows that for the insurance industry, the cost of equity based on our term structure model is on average nearly 299.6 basis points higher compared to the single period CAPM. This means that these insurers might overly invest if they rely on the single period CAPM.

Volatility Surface and Term Structure

Volatility Surface and Term Structure
Author: Kin Keung Lai
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 113
Release: 2013-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135006989

This book provides different financial models based on options to predict underlying asset price and design the risk hedging strategies. Authors of the book have made theoretical innovation to these models to enable the models to be applicable to real market. The book also introduces risk management and hedging strategies based on different criterions. These strategies provide practical guide for real option trading. This book studies the classical stochastic volatility and deterministic volatility models. For the former, the classical Heston model is integrated with volatility term structure. The correlation of Heston model is considered to be variable. For the latter, the local volatility model is improved from experience of financial practice. The improved local volatility surface is then used for price forecasting. VaR and CVaR are employed as standard criterions for risk management. The options trading strategies are also designed combining different types of options and they have been proven to be profitable in real market. This book is a combination of theory and practice. Users will find the applications of these financial models in real market to be effective and efficient.

Equity Volatility Term Structures and the Cross-Section of Option Returns

Equity Volatility Term Structures and the Cross-Section of Option Returns
Author: Aurelio Vasquez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. We rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform straddle portfolios with low slopes by an economically and statistically significant amount. The results are robust to different empirical setups and are not explained by traditional factors, higher-order option factors, or jump risk.

Term Structure Forecasts of Volatility and Option Portfolio Returns

Term Structure Forecasts of Volatility and Option Portfolio Returns
Author: Jim Campasano
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

I examine the predictability of equity implied volatility from the term structure, and find that forward volatility levels are biased predictors of future spot implied volatility. I construct options structures which proxy for forward volatility assets, and show that a long-short portfolio of forward volatility assets produce significantly profitable returns. As the construction of the trade is borne from a violation of an expectations hypothesis, the strategy is similar to the carry trade effected in foreign exchange and other assets. Unlike the returns to carry in foreign exchange and other assets, the forward volatility assets are not exposed to liquidity or volatility risks and negatively loads on market risk.

Three Essays in Theoretical and Empirical Derivative Pricing

Three Essays in Theoretical and Empirical Derivative Pricing
Author: Hamed Ghanbari
Publisher:
Total Pages: 179
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

The first essay investigates the option-implied investor preferences by comparing equilibrium option pricing models under jump-diffusion to option bounds extracted from discrete-time stochastic dominance (SD). We show that the bounds converge to two prices that define an interval comparable to the observed option bid-ask spreads for S&P 500 index options. Further, the bounds' implied distributions exhibit tail risk comparable to that of the return data and thus shed light on the dark matter of the divergence between option-implied and underlying tail risks. Moreover, the bounds can better accommodate reasonable values of the ex-dividend expected excess return than the equilibrium models' prices. We examine the relative risk aversion coefficients compatible with the boundary distributions extracted from index return data. We find that the SD-restricted range of admissible RRA values is consistent with the macro-finance studies of the equity premium puzzle and with several anomalous results that have appeared in earlier option market studies.The second essay examines theoretically and empirically a two-factor stochastic volatility model. We adopt an affine two-factor stochastic volatility model, where aggregate market volatility is decomposed into two independent factors; a persistent factor and a transient factor. We introduce a pricing kernel that links the physical and risk neutral distributions, where investor's equity risk preference is distinguished from her variance risk preference. Using simultaneous data from the S&P 500 index and options markets, we find a consistent set of parameters that characterizes the index dynamics under physical and risk-neutral distributions. We show that the proposed decomposition of variance factors can be characterized by a different persistence and different sensitivity of the variance factors to the volatility shocks. We obtain negative prices for both variance factors, implying that investors are willing to pay for insurance against increases in volatility risk, even if those increases have little persistence. We also obtain negative correlations between shocks to the market returns and each volatility factor, where correlation is less significant in transient factor and therefore has a less significant effect on the index skewness. Our empirical results indicate that unlike stochastic volatility model, join restrictions do not lead to the poor performance of two-factor SV model, measured by Vega-weighted root mean squared errors.In the third essay, we develop a closed-form equity option valuation model where equity returns are related to market returns with two distinct systematic components; one of which captures transient variations in returns and the other one captures persistent variations in returns. Our proposed factor structure and closed-form option pricing equations yield separate expressions for the exposure of equity options to both volatility components and overall market returns. These expressions allow a portfolio manager to hedge her portfolio's exposure to the underlying risk factors. In cross-sectional analysis our model predicts that firms with higher transient beta have a steeper term structure of implied volatility and a steeper implied volatility moneyness slope. Our model also predicts that variances risk premiums have more significant effect on the equity option skew when the transient beta is higher. On the empirical front, for the firms listed on the Dow Jones index, our model provides a good fit to the observed equity option prices.