Essays on Technological Change and Financial Markets

Essays on Technological Change and Financial Markets
Author: Changho Choi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN: 9781124906706

My dissertation investigates several long-standing issues in macro and international macro, specifically questions related to technological change, financial market imperfections and international risk sharing. The first two chapters analyze these issues in a closed economy model, while the third chapter studies these issues in an open economy model. The first chapter examines the role of credit market imperfections in propagating news of future productivity, both theoretically and empirically. The second chapter investigates the technology-hours debate in an economy buffeted by anticipated technology and fiscal policy shocks. The third chapter, jointly written with Yi Chen, examines the role of a recursive preference developed in Epstein and Zin (1989) in explaining the equity home bias puzzle in an otherwise standard two-country endowment-driven open macro model. Viewed as a whole, my dissertation is an effort to connect technological processes with financial markets in macro models in order to further our understanding of macro phenomena. The first chapter investigates the role of credit market imperfections in shaping the response of the economy to news of future productivity, and proposes an alternative view of how news shocks propagate through the economy. In contrast to the conventional wisdom about news of future productivity - that it generates strong booms in the short run - I develop a novel news-driven business cycle model in which credit market imperfections significantly dampen the short-run response of economic activity to news. To exploit the fact that news of future productivity generates an asymmetry between expected returns and the current financial conditions faced by firms, I model credit market frictions as arising from the agency cost problem. In contrast to the limited enforceability problem, the agency cost problem serves to dampen the short-run response of investment because the desire to increase investment due to the higher expected returns is offset by the endogenous rise in the external finance premium in the absence of an actual rise in productivity. This inertial behavior of investment is in turn transmitted to hours worked and final output through the general equilibrium effect. I then estimate the response of economic activity to news shocks using U.S. manufacturing data and find some suggestive evidence for the credit frictions mechanism presented in the model. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, economic activity exhibits a muted response to news shocks during anticipation periods and therefore tracks, rather than leads, the actual change in productivity. Second, news shocks explain a small fraction of output fluctuations. Finally, industries that are more dependent on external finance or exhibit more volatile idiosyncratic productivity growth appear to have a more dampened response to news shocks in the short run. The second chapter investigates the reliability of using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) evidence on the response of hours to a technology shock to discriminate between two workhorse business cycle models: standard real business cycle models and sticky price models. Given growing attention to the role of news shocks in the business cycle literature, I evaluate the performance of the SVAR procedure when the true data generating process is driven by news shocks about future technology and fiscal policy. The main results are summarized as follows. First, when the SVAR procedure is applied to the data simulated from an economy with unanticipated shocks to the technology process, the estimated impulse responses have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses. Second, when the SVAR procedure is applied to the data generated from an economy with news shocks to the technology process, the estimated impulse responses generally have a different qualitative pattern from the true responses, and frequently they produce opposite signs. The poor performance of the SVAR procedure largely comes from the anticipation of technology, whereas little is attributed to the anticipation of fiscal policy. Third, if the true data generating process is driven by conventional unanticipated technology shocks, a SVAR researcher can be confident about drawing the conclusion about model discrimination. However, if the true data generating process is driven by news about future technology but a researcher still uses the SVAR procedure based on the conventional information assumption, then the probability that a researcher draws the right conclusion about model discrimination falls dramatically. The third chapter, written jointly with Yi Chen, investigates the role of a recursive preference developed in Epstein and Zin (1989) (EZ) in explaining the equity home bias puzzle, and shows that EZ preferences play a role of increasing the home equity share relative to standard CRRA preferences. This happens because EZ preferences generate a long-run risk hedging demand that contributes to a positive covariance between the relative expenditure and the excess equity return. As a result, the local equity is more likely to be a good asset since it pays off more when investors are willing to spend more. Additional main findings are as follows. First, using the least structural information, we show that the degree of equity home bias depends on the conditional covariance-variance ratio between the relative expenditure and the excess equity return, which nests as a special case the standard CRRA models' implication that the equity home bias depends on the conditional covariance-variance ratio between the real exchange rate and the excess equity return. Second, our model is an infinite-horizon model, while standard trade-cost-based explanations work within two-period models in which portfolio adjustment is impermissible by construction. Thus, our model gets the moment representations for the equity home bias right, while two-period trade-cost-based models assume away portfolio adjustment, thereby overstating the relationship between the real exchange rate and the excess equity return.

Essays in Technology Diffusion and Asset Pricing

Essays in Technology Diffusion and Asset Pricing
Author: Ziemowit Konrad Bednarek
Publisher:
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

First chapter of this thesis finds a new consumption growth predictor linked to macroeconomic fundamentals: the technology gap, the dierence between potential and actual productivity of capital. I construct a representative firm business cycle model, in which the technology gap generates specic patterns of short- and long-run consumption growth, and consumption growth volatility. Intuitively, a high technology gap acts as an economic shock that increases consumption in the long term due to a higher future productivity level. I use quality-adjusted price indices of durable investment goods to create a proxy for the technology gap. Consistent with the model, I find empirical evidence that a high technology gap predicts: (i) strong consumption growth at longer horizons, (ii) high consumption growth volatility, and (iii) high risk-free rate. Second chapter demonstrates the relationship between research and development expenditure, and firm productivity. I construct a model which implies that firm-level R & D optimal policy should be dependent on ex-ante productivity. Firms ex-ante further from the frontier optimally invest more in R & D. Ex-post productivity depends on the amount of R & D investment and the match between new technology and existing production factors. Firms investing more in R & D are ex-post on average closer to the frontier, controlling for theoretically motivated endogeneity. I present empirical evidence supporting the model. Using data envelopment, I construct a measure of firm-level distance from industry-wide productivity frontier. On average, a 1% larger distance from the frontier causes a 0.5% increase in R & D intensity next quarter. R & D activity in turn predicts high stock return volatility. Third chapter tests the existing durable consumption-based asset pricing model of Yogo (2006). Consumption risk is measured by the covariance between asset returns and future durable consumption growth, rather than contemporaneous growth, as in the original model. I present empirical evidence that excess returns on Fama-French portfolios are correlated more with future than contemporaneous durable consumption growth. I transform the original Euler equations of the model to use information about the future consumption growth. As its correlation with returns is higher, the estimate of risk aversion from the model decreases substantially compared with Yogo (2006). I also find that the altered consumption risk measure increases the explanatory power of the model. I approximate the original model and show that it can be estimated in the simple OLS framework. Cross-sectional R square is highest when the consumption growth is sampled over six to eight quarters ahead. This result is robust to dierent sets of test assets.

Techno-economic Paradigms

Techno-economic Paradigms
Author: Wolfgang J. M. Drechsler
Publisher: Anthem Press
Total Pages: 443
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1843317850

'Techno-Economic Paradigms' presents a series of essays discussing one of the most interesting and talked-about socio-economic theories of our times: techno-economic paradigm shifts.

Three Essays on Expectation Driven Business Cycles

Three Essays on Expectation Driven Business Cycles
Author: Shen Guo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis studies business cycles driven by agents' expectation of future technology changes. The first chapter explores the effects which nominal rigidities and monetary policies have on the generation of Pigou cycles. The optimal response of the central bank is analyzed under circumstances when agents receive a signal indicating the technology change in the future. To achieve these objectives, I introduce nominal rigidities and monetary policy into a standard two-sector model with non-durable and durable goods. The optimal reaction of the central bank is found by solving the Ramsey optimization problem. I find that nominal rigidities tend to amplify the responses to the expectation and monetary policies affect the expectation driven business cycles by affecting the real interest rate and user cost of durable goods. Another interesting result is that a simple policy rule reacting to the inflation rates in both non-durable and durable sector with appropriate weights can closely mimic the performance of the Ramsey policy. The second chapter estimates a sticky price two-sector model with home production and capital adjustment costs to assess the significance of the news shocks in generating aggregate fluctuations. The analysis suggests that news shocks account for about 34% of the fluctuations in the aggregate output, 25% of the fluctuations in consumption-sector output and 38% of the fluctuations in investment-sector output. The third chapter explores the booms and busts induced by news shocks in a model economy with financial market frictions. With the presence of financial market frictions, firms have to pay an external finance premium which depends inversely on their net values. This provides firms with an incentive to build up capital stocks now to lower the external finance premium in the future. When firms receive news indicating a future technology improvement, they anticipate the need for more capital and so more external finance in the future; they could lower their future external finance costs by building up their capital and net values now. By adding financial market frictions into an otherwise standard RBC model, the model in chapter 3 succeeds in generating a boom when a news shock hits the economy.

Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles

Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles
Author: Alex Cukierman
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 430
Release: 1992
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262031943

These original contributions by some of today's leading macroeconomists and political economists explore a broad spectrum of social, political, and technological variables that encourage or impede economic growth. What political and economic factors stimulate growth and make an economy expand? These original contributions by some of today's leading macroeconomists and political economists explore a broad spectrum of social, political, and technological variables that encourage or impede economic growth. Topics range from economic reform and price flexibility to the economic effects of political coups and include both theoretical analysis and empirical results.During the past decade, economists have seen important new developments linking growth and business cycles to government policy. These contributions provide a clear understanding of these processes and their effect in shaping economic policy. They look at the welfare side of economics and offer strong economic models to explain the connection between social policies and economic growth. For example, John Londregan and Keith Poole address the economic effects of political coups, Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini explore the question of whether inequality is harmful for growth, and Stephen Parente and Edward Prescott look at the role of technology adoption in stimulating growth.The essays cover a wide range of approaches. Several focus on the interaction between growth and the choice of policy, where policy reacts to economic and distributional considerations through a majority rule process. Others take the policy as given and focus on the empirical estimation of the speed of convergence of rates of growth across states and regions and the importance of externalities and knowledge spillovers for rates of growth. Essays about the business cycle fall into two broad categories. One, arising from the new political economy tradition, examines the effects of elections and price decontrols on the business cycle. The other explores the implications of optimal economic policies in a representative agent framework for the cyclical behavior of the economy.

Systems of Innovation

Systems of Innovation
Author: Christopher Freeman
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 294
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This set of essays by Chris Freeman, founder of SPRU and one of the pioneers of innovation studies, will be of interest to anyone wanting to gain a deeper understanding of technical and social change.

Three Essays on Productivity (RLE: Business Cycles)

Three Essays on Productivity (RLE: Business Cycles)
Author: Mark J. Lasky
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 157
Release: 2015-03-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317502515

The behaviour of US productivity since this book was originally publishedin 1994, has added new relevance to the relationship between profits and productivity. In the long run, productivity growth determines the economic standard of living. This book is divided into three parts: the basis of the first is the empirical finding that, controlling for normal business cycle effects, productivity grows faster when profits have been low than otherwise. The second part discusses how to measure marginal cost using time series data and the third tests a basic assumption that productivity growth is exogenous to labour and capital.