Essays on Pricing and Portfolio Choice in Incomplete Markets

Essays on Pricing and Portfolio Choice in Incomplete Markets
Author: Ti Zhou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 282
Release: 2008
Genre: Portfolio management
ISBN:

This dissertation is a contribution to the pricing and portfolio choice theory in incomplete markets. It consists of three self-contained but interlinked essays. In the first essay, we present a utility-based methodology for the valuation and the risk management of mortgage-backed securities subject to totally unpredictable prepayment risk. Incompleteness stems from its embedded pre-payment option which affects the security's cash flow pattern. The prepayment time is constructed via deterministic or stochastic hazard rate. The relevant indifference price consists of a linear term, corresponding to the remaining outstanding balance, and a nonlinear one that incorporates the investor's risk aversion and the interest payments generated by the mortgage contract. The indifference valuation approach is also extended to the case of homogeneous mortgage pools. In the second essay, using forward optimality criteria, we analyze a portfolio choice problem when the local risk tolerance is time-dependent and asymptotically linear in wealth. This class corresponds to a dynamic extension of the traditional (static) risk tolerances associated with the power, logarithmic and exponential utilities. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal investment strategies and wealth processes in an incomplete non-Markovian market with asset prices modelled as Ito processes. The methodology allows for measuring the investment performance in terms of a benchmark and alter-native market views. In the last essay, we extend the forward investment performance approach to study the optimal portfolio choice problem in an incomplete market driven by jump processes. The asset price is modelled by a one-dimensional Lévy-Itô process. We prove the existence of a forward performance process by restricting the local risk tolerance functions to be time-independent and linear in wealth. This yields only three types of performance measurement criteria, namely, exponential, power and logarithmic. The optimal portfolios are constructed via stochastic feedback controls under these criteria.

Essays in Asset Allocation

Essays in Asset Allocation
Author: Xin Gao
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre: Commodity exchanges
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of two essays in asset allocation. In the first essay, I explore the question of how investors should optimally incorporate commodities in their multi-asset portfolios, or even if they should at all. To tackle this problem, I conduct a comprehensive out-of-sample assessment on the economic value of commodities in multi-asset investment strategies for both mean-variance and non-mean-variance investors who exploit the predictability of time-varying asset return moments. With both monthly and quarterly rebalancing frequencies, I find that predictability makes the addition of commodities profitable even when short-selling and high leverage are not permitted. For instance, a mean-variance (non mean-variance) investor rebalancing quarterly, with moderate risk aversion and leverage, would be willing to pay up to 108 (155) basis points per year after transaction cost for adding commodities into her stock, bond and cash portfolio. In the second essay, I study the economic value generated by active equity mutual funds from an investor’s perspective. I employ an optimization-based portfolio approach to construct a composite investment strategy of U.S. active equity mutual funds. The strategy jointly exploits the conditioning information conveyed by multiple fund characteristics and macroeconomic variables about the cross-section of fund performance. Based on an extensive out-of-sample performance evaluation, I find that the proposed strategy consistently outperforms a large set of passive investments that rely on index funds as well as the strategies that exploit the fund characteristics on an individual basis. The outperformance is net of fees and expenses and after precluding short-sales and leverage. I further show that the proposed strategy’s superior performance derives from effectively exploiting the predictive power of distinct fund characteristics to shift portfolio allocation toward (away from) funds with future outperformance (underperformance) as market conditions evolve over time. The findings indicate that investing in active equity mutual funds can add significant economic value for investors if the time-varying predictability in fund performance is properly taken into account and if an optimal portfolio approach, as opposed to simpler strategies based on sorting or on equal-weighted schemes, is adopted.

ESSAYS ON OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES

ESSAYS ON OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
Author: Dan Luo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation consists of three chapters where the common theme is the use of various econometric techniques to constructing optimal portfolios and empirically exploring portfolio performance. My first chapter proposes new approaches to constructing mimicking portfolios for non-tradable shocks from a large set of base assets. Although the analytical solution to mimicking portfolios is available, it involves estimating the covariance of asset returns and covariance of returns with replicated shocks. The estimates of those moments are noisy and can have a detrimental impact on the quality of the portfolio performance out of sample, especially in the presence of a large number of base assets. To mitigate the overfitting problem, this chapter imposes regularization constraints on portfolio strategies. The first proposed approach solves the portfolio variance minimization problem with target portfolio betas and a constraint on the upper limit on the norm of portfolio weights. The second approach recasts the mimicking portfolio problem to a GMM estimation problem, where the portfolio weights are the estimated parameters, along with constraints on the norm of the portfolio weights. Compared with the first approach, the second approach does not estimate the portfolio problem inputs explicitly and may not satisfy the beta constraints in-sample, leading to additional flexibility to better perform out-of-sample. This chapter uses simulations to study the comparative advantage of the two approaches, applies the proposed techniques to construct mimicking portfolios for nine macroeconomic and uncertainty shocks, and examines the empirical out-of-sample portfolio performance. In all cases, the regularized mimicking portfolios have feasible portfolio weights without sacrificing the portfolio performance. In my second chapter, I propose a new methodology to form conditional mimicking portfolios. Prior research forms mimicking portfolios mostly based on past realizations of returns and shocks without utilizing conditioning information, which would capture the time variation in statistical moments of returns and shocks. My conditional mimicking portfolios track the target shocks period by period, efficiently use available information about future shocks and returns, and have a minimal conditional variance of returns. The key innovation of my methodology is that I transform the traditional conditional portfolio minimization problem into a set of conditional moment restrictions and apply the optimal Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to find portfolio weights. To obtain the optimal GMM estimator, I build upon the classical GMM framework and construct the optimal instruments, which are non-parametrically functions of asset characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Compared with the traditional approach, my methodology neither imposes assumptions on the dynamics of conditional returns and shocks nor struggles to identify unobservable investors' information sets. To exploit the finite sample property of conditional mimicking portfolios, I use simulations and apply my methodology to create portfolios that mimic six macroeconomic and uncertainty shocks. Results show that the use of conditioning information helps improve the out-of-sample portfolio performance and also highlight the challenges of forming conditional mimicking portfolios. In my third chapter, I study portfolio management, with a focus on mutual fund performance. Prior research primarily examines the performance of equity mutual funds, leaving bond mutual funds relatively understudied. In this chapter, I construct a holding-based measure, weight shift, to capture the intensity of bond mutual funds' trading activity. The traditional measure of funds' trading activity - portfolio turnover - has several limitations, such as infrequent reporting, sensitivity to large changes in average total net assets, and susceptibility to the amount of one-sided aggregate transactions. I investigate the relationship between funds' trading activity and future fund performance, and find that higher fund trading activity predicts lower fund performance controlling for fund-specific characteristics. The negative impact of trading activity on fund performance is stronger among high-yield funds, in line with the notion that more noise trading incurred by high trading in illiquid markets erodes fund performance. I also examine the incentive for managers to engage in intensive trading activity, and find that managers use high trading intensity as a signal to attract investors, especially retail investors. Finally, I find that weight shift captures the inferior managerial skill and reacts to macro uncertainty. This chapter sheds light on understanding the trading behavior of bond mutual funds and questions the value of active management in bond mutual funds.

Essays on Optimal Portfolio and Resource Allocation

Essays on Optimal Portfolio and Resource Allocation
Author: Sergiy Pysarenko
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper proposes a micro-foundation for Contest-Success Functions (CSF) in a principal/agents setting. We characterize the principal's utility function so that the Ratio Form CSF results as the unique optimal allocation rule. The literature assumes a particular CSF without considering that the principal has her own preferences and that the optimal allocation, after having observed efforts, may differ from the allocation stipulated by the CSF. In this case, the CSF is not the principal's best response strategy; thus, the contest is not strongly credible. To ensure strong credibility, we consider sufficient conditions for a non-monotonic utility function, as well as for a larger family of monotonic utility functions compared to the literature. This paper proposes a novel approach of portfolio allocation. The fundamental indexing (FI) and Markowitz mean-variance optimization (MVO) approaches are complementary but have been considered separately in the portfolio choice literature. Using data on S&P 500 constituents, we evaluate a portfolio construction technique that utilizes the benefits of both approaches. The out-of-sample results of the blended portfolios attest to their superior performance compared to common benchmarks, and to portfolios constructed solely based on the FI or MVO methods. In pursuit of the optimal blend between the MVO and FI, we find that the ratio of market capitalization to GDP, being a leading indicator for an overpriced market, demonstrates remarkably advantageous properties. This paper proposes a Price-Adjusted Fundamental Index (PAFI) portfolio to improve on the Arnott Fundamental Index (FI) portfolio construction methodology. We adjust the Arnott fundamentals with a measure of under- or overpricing. We use data on S&P 500 constituents, and separate industries to compute Sharpe ratios that test the performance of the Arnott FI, the Global Minimum Variance (GMV), and PAFI portfolios against appropriate benchmarks. We test an alternative way to blend FI and GMV portfolios, based on Markowitz mean variance optimization. We find that PAFI and some of PAFI-based portfolios outperform FI and FI-based portfolios for Oil & Gas, Health Care, Technology and Telecommunications industries, and for defensive and sensitive super-industries.

Applications of Optimal Portfolio Management

Applications of Optimal Portfolio Management
Author: Dimitrios Bisias
Publisher:
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis revolves around applications of optimal portfolio theory. In the first essay, we study the optimal portfolio allocation among convergence trades and mean reversion trading strategies for a risk averse investor who faces Value-at-Risk and collateral constraints with and without fear of model misspecification. We investigate the properties of the optimal trading strategy, when the investor fully trusts his model dynamics. Subsequently, we investigate how the optimal trading strategy of the investor changes when he mistrusts the model. In particular, we assume that the investor believes that the data will come from an unknown member of a set of unspecified alternative models near his approximating model. The investor believes that his model is a pretty good approximation in the sense that the relative entropy of the alternative models with respect to his nominal model is small. Concern about model misspecification leads the investor to choose a robust optimal portfolio allocation that works well over that set of alternative models. In the second essay, we study how portfolio theory can be used as a framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions focusing on the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Prioritizing research efforts is analogous to managing an investment portfolio. In both cases, there are competing opportunities to invest limited resources, and expected returns, risk, correlations, and the cost of lost opportunities are important factors in determining the return of those investments. Can we apply portfolio theory as a systematic framework of making biomedical funding allocation decisions? Does NIH manage its research risk in an efficient way? What are the challenges and limitations of portfolio theory as a way of making biomedical funding allocation decisions? Finally in the third essay, we investigate how risk constraints in portfolio optimization and fear of model misspecification affect the statistical properties of the market returns. Risk sensitive regulation has become the cornerstone of international financial regulations. How does this kind of regulation affect the statistical properties of the financial market? Does it affect the risk premium of the market? What about the volatility or the liquidity of the market?

Essays on Asset Pricing and Portfolio Optimization

Essays on Asset Pricing and Portfolio Optimization
Author: Christian Koeppel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

WThis doctoral thesis focuses on the effects of investor sentiment on asset pricing and the challenges of portfolio optimization under parameter uncertainty. The first essay "Sentiment risk premia in the cross-section of global equity" applies a recently developed sentiment proxy to the construction of a new risk factor and provides a comprehensive understanding of its role in sentiment-augmented asset pricing models for international equity indices. We empirically demonstrate the existence of a statistically significant and economically relevant sentiment premium. Differentiating between developed and emerging markets we reveal different patterns of return reversals / persistence. Our results contribute to the explanation of global cross-sectional average excess returns, demonstrating superiority in terms of predictive power when compared to competing definitions of sentiment. The second essay "Does social media sentiment matter in the pricing of U.S. stocks?" finds that the inclusion of micro-grounded, social media-based sentiment significantly improves the performance of the five-factor model from Fama and French (2015, 2017). This holds for different industry and style portfolios such as size, value, profitability, and investment. Applying a robust GMM estimator, the sentiment risk premium provides the missing component in the behavioral asset pricing theory of Shefrin and Belotti (2008) and (partially) resolves the pricing puzzles of small extreme growth, small extreme investment stocks and small stocks that invest heavily despite low profitability. The third essay "Diversifying estimation errors: An efficient averaging rule for portfolio optimization" proposes a combination of established minimum-variance strategies to minimize the expected out-of-sample variance. The proposed averaging rule overcomes the strategy selection problem and diversifies estimation errors of the strategies included in our rule. Extensive simulations show that the contributions of estimation errors to the out-of-sample variances are uncorrelated between the considered strategies. We therefore conclude that averaging over multiple strategies offers sizable diversification benefits.

Essays on Robust Portfolio Management

Essays on Robust Portfolio Management
Author: Lukas Plachel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) provides an elegant mathematical framework for the efficient portfolio allocation problem. Despite its exceptional popularity, MPT poses a number of well-documented problems in practical applications. Especially the fact that it generates notoriously extreme and non-robust allocations which may seriously impair the out-of-sample performance. This thesis introduces three methods with the common objective to remedy those shortcomings. Chapter 1 addresses the problems of traditional mean-variance optimization originating from model- and estimation errors. In order to simultaneously tackle both error sources, a joint method for covariance regularization and robust optimization is proposed which exploits the inherent complementarity between the two concepts. An application of the method to equity markets reveals similarly attractive behaviour as pure covariance regularization during normal times and improved performance as measured by out-of-sample volatility if a jump in systematic risk occurs. Chapter 2 introduces a covariance estimation approach which is based solely on characteristic company information. In contrast to traditional, time series based estimation procedures which typically lead to extreme and unreliable estimates, the proposed method produces stable covariance matrices which can be used if no time series data is available, or complementary to traditional methods. We derive characteristics-based covariance matrices for a US stock universe and use them as shrinkage targets in a minimum variance optimization example. The resulting strategies clearly dominate the benchmark case of identity shrinkage in terms of out-of-sample volatility. Chapter 3 bridges the gap between MPT and one of the most vivid fields of contemporary research: Artificial Intelligence. A model is introduced which uses a Neural Network to learn the relation between portfolio weights and arbitrary measures of portfolio.

Essays On Trading Strategy

Essays On Trading Strategy
Author: Graham L Giller
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 217
Release: 2023-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811273839

This book directly focuses on finding optimal trading strategies in the real world and supports that with a well-defined theoretical foundation that allows trading strategy problems to be solved. Critically, it also delivers a menu of actual solutions that can be applied by traders with various risk profiles and objectives in markets that exhibit substantial tail risk. It shows how the Markowitz approach leads to excessive risk taking, and trader underperformance, in the real world. It summarizes the key features of Utility Theory, the deficiencies of the Sharpe Ratio as a statistic, and develops an optimal decision theory with fully developed examples for both 'Normal' and leptokurtotic distributions.