Essays On Monetary Policy Under Openness
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| Author | : Sarfaraz Ali Shah Syed |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 310 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Despite the prevalent consensus on the short to medium-run effects of monetary policy shocks on the real economy and long-run effects on inflation; the relative importance of the channels of monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) still remains open to debate. In this regard, recent findings of the monetary literature and the important developments in the economic and financial structure of the economies on the whole invoke new insights and important questions on the relevancy of monetary policy. The new era of increased openness has also started posing new challenges to the existing monetary transmission mechanism and the policy effects thereof. However, this area has yet not been explored on merit by the researchers, and the existing literature explains only a small part of this globalization -inflation puzzle. Therefore, this thesis aims to make a contribution to this debate. Starting with the analysis of monetary transmission the corresponding channels and the lags we develop a theoretical model to explain the developments and challenges to the monetary policy in the current scenario of increased globalization. The succeeding section deals with the data of a large set of economies, where in the first instance we compute the potential output and subsequently the output gap for the whole sample. Going ahead we conduct panel estimation using Phillips curve equation for our sample to investigate the globalization impacts on the economies on the whole and in parts based on the regional and economic groups.
| Author | : Richard William Evans |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 244 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Inflation (Finance) |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Ayse Zeyneti Kabukcuoglu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 336 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In the first chapter, I quantify the welfare effect of eliminating the U.S. capital income tax under international financial integration. I employ a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the U.S. and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor price dynamics are key: after the tax reform, post-tax interest rate increases less under financial openness relative to autarky. Therefore the wealth-rich households gain less. Post-tax wages also fall less, so the wealth-poor are hurt less. Hence, the fraction in favor of the reform increases, although the majority still prefers the status quo. Aggregate welfare effect to the U.S. is a permanent 0.2 % consumption equivalent loss under financial openness which is 85.5 % smaller than the welfare loss under autarky. The second chapter aims to answer two questions: What helps forecast U.S. inflation? What causes the observed changes in the predictive ability of variables commonly used in forecasting US inflation? In macroeconomic analysis and inflation forecasting, the traditional Phillips curve has been widely used to exploit the empirical relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, cast doubt on the performance of Phillips curve-based forecasts of U.S. inflation relative to naive forecasts. This indicates a difficulty for policy-making and private sectorâs long term nominal commitments which depend on inflation expectations. The literature suggests globalization may be one reason for this phenomenon. To test this, we evaluate the forecasting ability of global slack measures under an open economy Phillips curve. The results are very sensitive to measures of inflation, forecast horizons and estimation samples. We find however, terms of trade gap, measured as HP-filtered terms of trade, is a good and robust variable to forecast U.S. inflation. Moreover, our forecasts based on the simulated data from a workhorse new open economy macro (NOEM) model indicate that better monetary policy and good luck (i.e. a remarkably benign sample of economic shocks) can account for the empirical observations on forecasting accuracy, while globalization plays a secondary role.
| Author | : Inhwan So |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 120 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Banks and banking |
| ISBN | : |
This dissertation studies the effects of monetary policy in small open economies. In Chapter 1, I investigate how the openness of banking sector influences the transmission channels of home and international monetary policy shocks in small open economies. For the analysis, I construct a small open economy DSGE model enriched with a globalized banking sector. I consider two forms of bank globalization: international bank capital finance and foreign loan account import. By comparing the effect of each type of bank globalization on monetary policy transmission, the analysis delivers the following results. First, bank globalization leads to a significant attenuation of domestic monetary policy transmission. This is because, in response to home monetary shocks, banks' global activities allow them to maintain bank rates and demands on deposit to some extent compared to those in financial autarky. On the other hand, opening of the banking sector intensifies the impact of foreign interest rate shocks on the local bank activities. In addition to the conventional channel of international monetary transmission through interest-parity condition, global bank operation opens a new channel which makes bank rates more responsive to foreign monetary shock. Chapter 2 investigates the nature of monetary policy transmission in four small open economies - Australia, Canada, South Korea, and the U.K. - and the U.S. (the benchmark) by estimating structural vector autoregressive models using the external instrument identification method. Differing from related studies on U.S. monetary policy, which mostly employ high-frequency futures data on monetary policy operating instruments (federal fund futures rates) to identify monetary policy shocks, we propose and test alternative sets of external instruments for the four focal open economies that do not yet have well-established futures markets in monetary policy instruments. The empirical results obtained by applying this data-oriented method yield important messages from both the econometric and macroeconomic perspectives. First, U.S. monetary policy plays an important role in monetary transmission in SOEs, presumably hampering the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy. In particular, the effect of domestic monetary policy shocks on medium- and long-term interest rates is quite weak and short-lived, while U.S. monetary innovation significantly and persistently influences domestic financial variables. Second, the paper provides some evidence that foreign exchange rates in this process respond to monetary shocks as Dornbusch (1976)’s overshooting hypothesis. Chapter 3 studies the wedge between the interest rate implied by Euler equation and money market rate in five small open economies – Australia, Canada, Finland, Korea, and the U.K. Standard Euler equation predicts strongly positive relationship between the two interest rates. However, data shows significantly large wedge between them, which causes negative correlation. We explore the systemic link between the wedge and two possible influencing factors – monetary policy and net foreign asset position. The empirical results from our analysis deliver the important message that the wedge is closely related to net foreign asset position in open economies, while its relationship to the stance of monetary policy has mixed results.
| Author | : Gennady Lyakir |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 208 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Thitima Chucherd |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 474 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Fiscal policy |
| ISBN | : |
This thesis addresses interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and in an empirical model under a structural vector error correction model (SVECM). The thesis consists of three essays. The contribution is both theoretical and empirical that enables a better understanding of the complexity of interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in small open economies. The first essay examines the equilibrium determinacy under monetary and fiscal rules. The goal is to investigate how monetary and fiscal policy interactions ensure a unique and non-explosive (determinate) equilibrium for a small open economy. The study focuses when policy makers implement a set of policy mixes to address domestic output price inflation control for monetary policy, debt stabilization for fiscal policy, and joint output stabilization tasks. The result indicates that two policy schemes facilitate a determinate equilibrium. First, monetary policy actively controls inflation when fiscal policy sets a sufficient feedback on debt. Second, monetary policy becomes passive against inflation when fiscal policy is insolvent. Adding output stabilization to each rule simply causes variants of this fundamental. An interest rate rule with output stabilization can be more passive against inflation while providing a stronger response to the output gap. Fiscal policy is required to set higher feedback on debt along with its stronger counter-cyclical policy. The second essay links between the equilibrium determinacy and policy optimization. This essay provides insights into the design of policy mixes and compares determinacy outcomes between two theoretical models of a small open economy: with and without an explicit exchange rate role. This study shows that policy interactions in a small open economy with an endogenous exchange rate is quite sophisticated, especially when a monetary rule is added with an output stabilization task and/or targeted to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Additional concern for monetary policy in an open economy causes a partial offset to its reaction on domestic output price inflation that weakens its effect on the real debt burden. To minimize economic fluctuations, policy makers should mute the role of output stabilization for monetary policy, and set minimum feedback on debt that is compatible with the degree of counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Substantially active response to inflation is satisfactory for monetary policy with CPI inflation targeting. The third essay empirically presents monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Thailand's SVECM suggested by a theoretical DSGE model developed from the previous essays. This essay shows that the DSGE-SVECM model can be supported by Thai data. A shock to monetary policy is effective with a lag. Government spending policy is also effective with a lag and some crowding-out effects on output. An adverse shock in tax policy unexpectedly stimulates the economy, indicating room for enhancing economic growth by relaxing revenue constraint. Monetary policy is mainly implemented to correct a consequence of a fiscal shock on inflation (and also the domestic and foreign shocks), while fiscal policy appears to counter a consequence of the monetary policy shock on output.
| Author | : Louis-Philippe Rochon |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2001-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781782542827 |
'This book should be on the reading list of every graduate course in monetary economics. The distinguished contributors not only examine and discuss the nature of money and the conduct of monetary policy in a modern credit economy, but also take an historical perspective through the writings of Cassel, Wicksell, Sraffa and Hicks, as well as Keynes and Kaldor, and extend the theory of money endogeneity (or "horizontalism") to the open economy and economic growth. Interested readers have a feast before them.' - A.P. Thirlwall, University of Kent at Canterbury, UK The horizontalist perspective is an extension of the post-Keynesian approach, that has hitherto focused on a theory of credit and money. This book extends horizontalism beyond its traditional boundaries and makes it consistent with the post-Keynesian theories of output and the open economy. The authors compare and contrast the horizontalist position with various orthodox and non-orthodox views on money. They argue that horizontalism is perfectly compatible with liquidity preference, credit constraints, and a flexible interest-rate mark-up, and address recent developments in banking that reinforce the validity of a horizontal schedule of credit-money. The overall intention is to place horizontalism within the current heterodox tradition as a general theory of the creation of money that is consistent with the post-Keynesian view on macroeconomic policy.
| Author | : Nazire Nergiz Dinçer |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 179 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Monetary policy |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Muhammad Naveed Tahir |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of globalization on the dynamics of inflation and monetary policy in a globalized world. It consists of three essays.In the first essay we investigate the impact of financial globalization on the behaviour of inflation targeting emerging market economies with respect to exchange rate - Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements or not? We use quarterly data for six emerging market inflation targeting economies from the date of their inflation targeting adoption to 2009 Q4. The chapter uses small open economy new Keynesian model à la Gali and Monacelli (2005), and employs multi-equation GMM technique to investigate the relationship. We find that the response of central bank to the exchange rate in case of Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Thailand is statistically significant while insignificant for Korea and Czech Republic. Theoretically, it should not be so as even under flexible inflation targeting central bank responds to inflation deviation and output gap; we think that the peculiar characteristics of emerging markets, like fear of floating, weak financial system and low level of central bank credibility make exchange rate important for these economies. In the second essay we investigate empirically the relative importance of monetary transmission channels for Brazil, Chile and Korea. This chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to 2009 M12. We use a SVAR model incorporating the main monetary transmission channels combined together instead of individual channels in isolation. The empirical results indicate that the exchange rate channel and the share price channel have higher relative importance than the traditional interest rate and credit channel for industrial production. The results are not much different in case of inflation, except for Korea. The high ranking of exchange rate and share price channel is in line with the results by Gudmundsson (2007), which finds that exchange rate channel might have overburdened in the wake of financial globalization.In the third chapter we investigate empirically the role of openness - real and financial - on the inflation dynamics of Brazil, Chile and Korea. The chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to the end month of 2009. In this chapter we employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. We use imports to GDP ratio as an indicator for real openness whereas Chinn and Ito index (KAOPEN) and total assets plus total liabilities to GDP ratio form the data set of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti are two proxies for financial openness. The chapter concludes that there exists, generally, a positive relationship between real openness and inflation. However, in case of financial globalization the results are inconclusive as they are sensitive to measurement method of financial globalization.
| Author | : Herbert Giersch |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 372 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262071482 |
Demonstrates the essential connection between theoretical academic research and the creation of economic policy, reflecting his belief that the study of economics should lead to improvement of the social order and of the quality of human life. Herbert Giersch is one of Germany's most prominent economists and an outstanding contributor to the debate on European economic policy. Openness for Prosperity brings together his major essays in macroeconomic policy, written or published over the past two and a half decades. In these twenty nontechnical essays, Giersch clearly demonstrates the essential connection between theoretical academic research and the creation of economic policy, reflecting his belief that the study of economics should lead to improvement of the social order and of the quality of human life. Some of the policy positions that Giersch favors are free trade, limits to government, and openness of economies to future possibilities.The chapters are arranged in two parts with the first focusing on economic growth and structural change and the second on issues of monetary policy, inflation, and exchange rates. The essays are arranged chronologically according to the dates of publication or writing to suggest how topics and emphases have changed over time.The first part, reflecting Giersch's support of Schumpeter's views, includes essays on aspects of growth, protectionism in foreign trade, the role of entrepreneurship in the 1980s, prospects and problems for European economic integration in the 1990s, the lessons to be learned from West Germany's transition to a market economy, and the author's vision of the European and world economies at the end of this century. In the second part, essays address such issues as flexible exchange rates, indexation, IMF surveillance over exchange rates, neglected aspects of inflation, the effect of central bank independence on monetary policy, and the relationship between real exchange rates and comparative economic growth.
