Essays On Macroeconomic Policies In Heterogeneous Agent Models
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| Author | : Alaïs Martin-Baillon |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 256 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
It is now recognized that the heterogeneity of economic agents plays a crucial role in understanding the fluctuations of an economy. The different chapters of my thesis serve the same question: How does heterogeneity changes the way economic policies should be conducted? Today, heterogeneous-agent macroeconomics is developing in several directions, each shedding different light on the problems we face as economists. My thesis is at the confluence of the different facets of this field. The first chapter of my thesis, participates in the heterogeneous agent macroeconomics that derives analytical solutions in reduced-heterogeneity models. I study how governments should increase or decrease taxes on firms over the business cycle. I show that taking into account firms heterogeneity greatly changes tax policy recommendations. The second chapter of my thesis is part of quantitative heterogeneous agent macroeconomics. We study whether monetary policy should use its ability to redistribute wealth among heterogenous households to achieve its objectives. The third chapter of my thesis participates in field that uses micro data to understand macroeconomics and to design public policies. I estimate firms' propensities to invest to better understand how economic policies can vary firms' investment by varying their income.
| Author | : Nobuhide Okahata |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Macroeconomics |
| ISBN | : |
In these essays, I study the implications of macroeconomic policies under the environment with rich heterogeneities of economic agents. The analyses in these essays highlight that income and wealth inequality among agents could change the responses of macroeconomic policies and large aggregate shocks from those in the representative agent models. These results could modify our understanding of economic dynamics and the effect of macroeconomic policies. As an illustration, I focus on the monetary policy in a closed economy model and capital controls in an open economy model. I also develop a new nonlinear and global numerical solution method to analyze a class of heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic models. In the first chapter, ''An Alternative Solution Method for Continuous-Time Heterogeneous Agent Models with Aggregate Shocks'', I propose an alternative solution method for continuous-time heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks by extending the Backward Induction method developed initially for discrete-time models by Reiter (2010). The existing methods commonly used in the literature essentially rely on the local linearization and are only applicable to the problems where certainty equivalence with respect to aggregate shocks holds. On the other hand, the proposed method is nonlinear and global with respect to both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks and thus suitable to investigate models where large aggregate shocks exist or nonlinearity matters. I apply this method to solve a Krusell and Smith (1998) economy and evaluate its performance along two dimensions: accuracy and computation speed. I find that the proposed method is accurate even with large aggregate shocks and high curvature without surrendering computation speed (the baseline economy is solved within a few seconds). This new method is also applied to a model with recursive utility and an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model, and it is able to solve both models quickly and accurately. In the second chapter, ''Consumption Inequality and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian Model'', I consider a continuous-time heterogenous-agent New Keynesian model with the wealth effect of the labor supply and study quantitative implications of additional insurance mechanisms available to the households. Our numerical experiment illustrates cross-sectional consumption inequality increases after a contractionary monetary policy shock which is consistent with the previous empirical result while it contradicts with predictions of the model without the wealth effect of the labor supply. Furthermore, consumption response to contractionary monetary policy shock is dampened, and a cross-sectional average of utilities decreases while the opposite is true in the model without wealth effect. These results suggest that propagation of monetary policy shock to the aggregate variables and welfare depends critically on additional insurance instruments available to agents. The third chapter, ''Capital Controls under Income Heterogeneity'', studies the welfare implication of capital controls under the small open economy model with the idiosyncratic income risks and the borrowing constraints. A calibrated model computes the change in welfare for different levels of capital controls. Compared to the recent studies, welfare gain of capital controls becomes small under agent income heterogeneity. For the economy with low borrowing capacity, capital controls become more effective compared to the baseline case.
| Author | : Antzelos Kyriazis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2023 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This dissertation has three chapters. In the first chapter, I build a three-agent preferred-habitat New Keynesian (PHANK) model. I show that the fiscal multiplier decreases in the presence of countercyclical QE policies after a fiscal expansion since countercyclical QE implies that the central bank sells government bonds, leading to higher expected returns on these bonds, which in turn incentivizes the bondholders to save more. However, since bondholders save more, they consume less, and as a result, consumption inequality between the savers and the non-savers falls, but wealth inequality increases. The qualitative results are similar in a medium-scale heterogeneous agents New Keynesian (HANK) model. In the three-agent model, I also solve for the optimal fiscal and QE policies at the zero lower bound, and I find that both are expansionary. The optimal increase in central bank asset purchases allows the government to increase government spending by less relative to the case where QE follows a countercyclical rule, so lower tax revenues are needed. In the second chapter, I study how US QE programs affect the US economy and the emerging market economies regarding their macro aggregates and asset prices. First, using Bayesian VAR models, I find that expansionary QE has positive and statistically significant effects in the US economy and the emerging market economies; real GDP, real investment, the price level, and asset prices rise. However, in emerging market economies, the currencies appreciate, the current account-to-GDP ratios deteriorate, the money supply increases, and the government bond yields increase. Then, I build a two-country HANK model that matches the empirical responses. Through the model, I examine how wealth inequality evolves both in the US economy and in the emerging market economy after a positive QE shock. Wealth inequality increases in the short run but decreases over the medium run in both countries. Also, I study the effects of policies that aim to reduce the leverage in the financial sector of the emerging market economy, such as capital controls, and I find that this policy indeed reduces the capital flows and leverage. However, economic activity also falls, and the welfare effects are mixed across households.The last chapter resulted from my strong interest in digital assets that emerged during my last year in the program. In this chapter, which results from collaborative work with Iason Ofeidis, Georgios Palaiokrassas, and Leandros Tassiulas, we examine the effects of unexpected changes in US monetary policy on digital asset returns, and on DeFi-related variables such as borrowing rates, outstanding debt, and TVL. We also examine the effects that the FOMC statement releases and the Minutes releases have on the volatility of digital asset returns. Finally, we examine how DeFi activity evolves around the FOMC announcements. The results from this chapter show first that the returns on digital assets are significantly affected by the unexpected part of the FOMC announcements. The volatility of the returns is also significantly affected by the FOMC releases but less significantly affected by the Minutes releases. Second, the DeFi-related variables are also affected by unexpected changes in monetary policy. Lastly, we find that the most significant spikes in DeFi activity occur on the FOMC announcement days or days very close to the announcement days.
| Author | : Kyooho Kwon |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 84 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Labor supply |
| ISBN | : |
"Chapter 1 develops a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model that incorporates both intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. A nonconvexity in the mapping between time devoted to work and labor services distinguishes between extensive and intensive margins. We consider calibrated versions of this model that differ in the value of a key preference parameter for labor supply and the extent of heterogeneity. The model is able to capture the key features of the empirical hours worked distribution, including how individuals transit within this distribution. We then study how the various specifications influence labor supply responses to temporary shocks and permanent tax changes, with a particular focus on the intensive and extensive margin elasticities in response to these changes. We find important interactions between heterogeneity and the extent of curvature in preferences. Chapter 2 builds a model of family labor supply in which individuals choose between full-time work, part-time work, and nonemployment. The model is calibrated to replicate the movements of both male and female workers among these states. The willingness to substitute hours over time (the so-called intertemporal elasticity of labor supply) is critical for many economic analysis. A common strategy for uncovering the value of this willingness is to carry out structural estimation on micro panel data. One general issue in this estimation exercises using micro data is that misspecification of the constraints that individuals face is likely to influence inference about preference parameters. In the model economy, although the individual labor supply problem is a discrete choice problem, individuals are able to adjust hours along the intensive margin by moving between part-time and fulltime work. Intuitively, adjustment along the intensive margin potentially allows one to estimate the true value of the underlying curvature parameter describing the utility from leisure. We explore the extent to which standard labor supply methods can achieve this in our setting. Although these methods deliver precise estimates that are significantly different from zero, the estimates are effectively unrelated to the true underlying values. These methods also deliver elasticity estimates for women, even when the underlying preference parameters are the same for men and women. Chapter 3 investigates the optimal progressive tax code in an incomplete-market economy in which households are linked intergenerationally by altruism and earning ability. The model economy is calibrated to that of the US with the progressive tax code suggested by Gouviea and Strauss (1994). First, I compute the equilibrium with the optimal progressive tax code. Second, I investigate the extent to which the size of government welfare programs affects the optimal progressivity of the income tax code. I find that the optimal tax code for an economy populated with altruistic households is approximately equivalent to a proportional tax of 23.1% with a fixed deduction of approximately $17,000 in 1990 US dollars. For an economy populated with non-altruistic households, however, these numbers are 18.8% and $12,000 respectively. This result implies that inequality is more severe in an economy with intergenerational links so that the policy maker requires a more progressive tax system to provide insurance. Additionally, I find that when the size of the government welfare program is chosen carefully, the additional insurance benefits from the progressive income tax code disappear"--Pages iv-v.
| Author | : Min Fang (Economist) |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 147 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Housing |
| ISBN | : |
"This dissertation consists of essays addressing the macroeconomic outcomes of heterogeneous agent general equilibrium models with micro-level frictions. Each chapter employs both empirical and quantitative macroeconomic methods. The first chapter studies the impact of elevated volatility on the effectiveness of monetary policy on aggregate investment under firm-level capital adjustment costs. I argue that monetary policy is less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility in firm-level TFP than during normal times. Empirically, I document that high volatility weakens investment responses to monetary stimulus. I then develop a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with lumpy investment to interpret these findings. In the model, non-convex capital adjustment costs create a sizable extensive margin of investment which is more sensitive to changes in both interest rate and volatility than the intensive margin. When volatility is high, firms tend to stay inactive at the extensive margin, so monetary stimulus motivates less investment at the extensive margin. I find that the quantitative implications of the model are primarily shaped by the specifications of the capital adjustment costs. Unlike much of the prior literature, I use the dynamic moments of investment to identify this key model element. Based on this parameterization, high volatility reduces the effectiveness of monetary stimulus for investment by 30%. This reduction is about half of what I find in the data. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy depends on both the lumpy nature of firm-level investment and fluctuations in volatility. The second chapter studies the role of migration and housing constraints in determining income inequality within and across Chinese cities. Combining microdata and a spatial equilibrium model, we quantify the impact of the massive spatial reallocation of workers and the rapid growth of housing costs on the national income distribution. We first show several stylized facts detailing the strong positive correlation between migration inflows, housing costs, and imputed income inequality among Chinese cities. We then build a spatial equilibrium model featuring workers with heterogeneous skills, housing constraints, and heterogeneous returns from housing ownership to explain these facts. Our quantitative results indicate that the reductions in migration costs and the disproportionate growth in productivity across cities and skills result in the observed massive migration flows. Combining with the tight land supply policy in big cities, the expansion of the housing demand causes the rapid growth of housing costs, and enlarges the inequality between local housing owners and migrants. The counterfactual analysis shows that if we redistribute land supply increment by migrant flow and increase land supply toward cities with more migrants, we could lower the within-city income inequality by 14% and the national income inequality by 18%. Meanwhile, we can simultaneously encourage more migration into higher productivity cities"--Pages vii-viii.
| Author | : Gergő Motyovszki |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 156 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Macroeconomics |
| ISBN | : |
This thesis is composed of three independent chapters, but all centered around the broader topic of how macroeconomic policies interact with various aspects of household heterogeneity. Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity We provide a new channel through which monetary policy has distributional consequences at business cycle frequencies. We show that an unexpected monetary easing increases labor income inequality between high and less-skilled workers. In particular, this effect is prominent in sectors intensive in less-skilled labor, that exhibit high degree of capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and are subject to matching inefficiencies. To rationalize these findings we build a New Keynesian DSGE model with asymmetric search and matching (SAM) frictions across the two types of workers and CSC in the production function. We show that CSC on its own introduces a dynamic demand amplification mechanism: the increase in high-skilled employment after a monetary expansion makes complementary capital more productive, encouraging a further rise in investment demand and creating a multiplier effect. SAM asymmetries magnify this channel. Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and Redistribution in Small Open Economies Ballooning public debts in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic can present monetary-fiscal policies with a dilemma if and when neutral real interest rates rise, which might arrive sooner in emerging markets: policymakers can stabilize debts either by relying on fiscal adjustments (AM-PF) or by tolerating higher inflation (PM-AF). The choice between these policy mixes affects the efficacy of the fiscal expansion already today and can interact with the distributive properties of the stimulus across heterogeneous households. To study this, I build a two agent New Keynesian (TANK) small open economy model with monetary-fiscal interactions. Targeting fiscal transfers more towards high-MPC agents increases the output multiplier of a fiscal stimulus, while raising the degree of deficitfinancing for these transfers also helps. However, precise targeting is much more important under the AM-PF regime than the question of financing, while the opposite is the case with a PM-AF policy mix: then deficit-spending is crucial for the size of the multiplier, and targeting matters less. Under the PM-AF regime fiscal stimulus entails a real exchange rate depreciation which might offset "import leakage" by stimulating net exports, if the share of hand-to-mouth households is low and trade is price elastic enough. Therefore, a PM-AF policy mix might break the Mundell-Fleming prediction that open economies have smaller fiscal multipliers relative to closed economies. Weak Wage Recovery and Precautionary Motives after a Credit Crunch During the economic recovery following the financial crisis many advanced economies saw subdued wage dynamics, in spite of falling unemployment and an increasingly tight labour market. We propose a mechanism which can account for this puzzle and work against usual aggregate demand channels. In a heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets we endogenize uninsurable idiosyncratic risk through search-and-matching (SAM) frictions in the labour market. In this setting, apart from the usual precautionary saving behaviour, households can self-insure also by settling for lower wages in order to secure a job and thereby avoid becoming borrowing constrained. This channel is especially pronounced for asset-poor agents, already close to the constraint. We introduce a credit crunch into this framework modelled as a gradual tightening of the borrowing constraint (and utilizing a continuous time approach, known as HACT). The perfect foresight transition dynamics feature falling wages despite a tightening labour market and expanding employment. As households suddenly find themselves closer to the borrowing constraint, the increased precautionary motive drives them to accept lower wages in the bargaining process, while firms respond to this by posting more vacancies, leading to a tighter labour market and falling unemployment. If the household deleveraging pressure is persistent enough after the credit crunch, it can explain the weak wage recovery in spite of already stronger aggregate demand.
| Author | : Jose Luis Luna Alpizar |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 193 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781339834788 |
Heterogeneous agents models have become the norm in modern macroeconomics as the limitations of the representative-agent paradigm and the importance of studying household heterogeneity grow in recognition. Agent heterogeneity may not only be important to accurately capture the description of an aggregate equilibrium. Also, the representative agent assumption may hide many distributional effects and therefore could change the answer to many normative questions usually given by representative agent models.This dissertation contains three chapters exemplifying ways in which the consideration of heterogeneous agents in the modelling of macroeconomic phenomena has important repercussions for the predictions of the model and its normative implications. Chapters 1 and 2 show the importance of accounting for worker heterogeneity in the analysis of labor markets. Chapter 1 presents a search and matching model of unemployment with heterogeneous workers which's main features, are ex-ante worker heterogeneity and undirected search. These features enable the model to replicate the empirical correlations between labor market outcomes and proxy variables for worker productivity. The model displays job rationing, which makes it useful to understand the high levels of unemployment observed in deep recessions. It also constitutes a versatile tool for the analysis of several labor-market aspects in which worker heterogeneity could play an important role, such as the impact of employment policies that are believed to have asymmetric effects across the labor force.Chapter 2 provides an example of such applications by analyzing the effects of increments of a minimum wage. It explores theoretically and empirically the notion that minimum wages affect low-skill workers asymmetrically due to productivity differences. Using the model presented in chapter 1, with the incorporation of endogenous search intensity to account for the effects that minimum wages could have on worker participation, I show that a rising minimum wage lowers the employment and labor force participation of low-productivity workers by pricing them out of the market, while it increases the employment, participation, and wages of more productive workers that remain hirable. Chapter 2 also contains an empirical analysis that investigates and ultimately validates the model's predictions of changes in the minimum wage. Within the labor market for low-education (high school or lower) workers, increments in the minimum wage have diametrically opposed effects: they reduce the employment and labor force participation of teenagers with less than high school education, while increasing the employment and labor force participation of mature workers with high school educational attainment. A calibrated version of the model targeting the low-education labor market shows that, despite its opposite effects across the labor force, an increase in the minimum wage negatively impacts aggregate employment, labor force participation, and social welfare.Chapter 3 investigates the existence of complex dynamics in the behavior of exchange rates due heterogeneity in the expectations of their future value. A simple model of exchange rate dynamics featuring traders with heterogeneous expectations is introduced. The model is based on the asset pricing model in Brock and Hommes (1998) and features the BNN dynamic presented in Brown et al. (1950), a dynamic with desirable properties absent in other dynamics used in the literature. The chapter shows that even this simple model can easily generate complex and even chaotic dynamics in the exchange rate because of the interaction of traders with different beliefs. An important implication is that long-term exchange rate prediction is, in theory, difficult.
| Author | : Ying Tung Chan |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
"This thesis extends the macroeconomic theory with heterogeneous agents by taking account of heterogeneous households' interaction among themselves, in the form of comparing their consumptions or incomes, and by allowing heterogeneous firms to interact in a strategic fashion. In Chapter 2, I study how behavioral hypotheses such as the concern for status (relative consumption) and inequality aversion can lead to useful predictions about the evolution of wealth distribution and asset accumulation. Households are heterogeneous in terms of initial endowments and idiosyncratic shocks to their labor productivity. I propose a generalized concept of consumption externalities which include as special cases the concern for relative consumption, and preferences that display inequality aversion. In Chapter 3, I focus on interactions among heterogeneous firms in an oligopolistic framework. I assume that that the products offered by these firms are not perfect substitutes. More important, the degree of substitutability may vary across products within the industry. I offer a general formulation of industry structure such that monopoly, oligopoly, and monopolistic competition can be obtained as special cases. In Chapter 4, we study how preferences that display ambiguity aversion play a role in the job search process and affects the equilibrium rates of unemployment and vacancy. Ambiguity refers to the lack of information about probability distributions. The traditional job search model assumes that there are random matches between job seekers and firms (or vacancies), and the random draws have objective probability distributions that are known to both sides of the markets. We modify this model and assume that economic agents are uncertain about the underlying probability distributions. This chapter contributes to our understanding of how ambiguity aversion affects the unemployment rate and aggregate productivity." --
| Author | : David Zarruk Valencia |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 452 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This dissertation is composed of three chapters. In the first two chapters, I study the welfare and distributional consequences of government policies in economies with credit constraints and heterogeneous agents. Given the complexity to compute such models, the third chapter reviews the basics of parallel computing in macroeconomics.In the first chapter, I quantitatively assess the welfare maximizing policy during the Great Recession, when the government had access to two policy instruments: a) offer bailouts to banks, and b) subsidize the mortgage refinancing of households. The implementation of these instruments involves a trade-off, shaped by a dead-weight loss caused by foreclosures and an information friction on house prices. The main finding is that a subsidy-only policy would have generated welfare gains of up to 0.4% in consumption equivalent terms when compared to the HAMP and TARP benchmark. In the second chapter, I study the general equilibrium effects of government-supplied student loans in the educational markets of developing countries. Our main finding suggests that subsidized student loans can lead to a widening gap in the quality of education offered by top-10 versus top-50 educational institutions. Given the complexity to compute models with heterogeneous agents, the third chapter describes the basics of parallel computing in economics, reviews widely-used implementation routines and compares performance gains using as a test bed a standard life-cycle problem.
| Author | : Roberto Dieci |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 384 |
| Release | : 2014-07-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319074709 |
This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.
