Essays In Business Cycle Analysis
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Author | : Timothy Jerome Kehoe |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 500 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
The worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s was a watershed for both economic thought and economic policymaking. It led to the belief that market economies are inherently unstable and to the revolutionary work of John Maynard Keynes. Its impact on popular economic wisdom is still apparent today. Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century, which uses a common framework to study sixteen depressions from the interwar period in Europe and America, as well as from more recent times in Japan and Latin America, challenges the Keynesian theory of depressions. It develops and uses a methodology for studying depressions that relies on growth accounting and the general equilibrium growth model. Different chapters in this book analyze the depressions in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States in the 1930s, the depressions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico in the 1980s, and recent depressions in Argentina, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Besides the editors themselves, the contributors are Pedro Amaral, Paul Beaudry, Raphael Bergoeing, Mirta Bugarin, Harold Cole, Juan Carlos Conesa, Mario Crucini, Roberto Ellery, Victor Gomes, Jonas Fisher, Fumio Hayashi, Andreas Hornstein, James Kahn, Patrick Kehoe, Finn Kydland, James MacGee, Lee Ohanian, Fabrizio Perri, Franck Portier, Vincenzo Quadrini, Kim Ruhl, Raimundo Soto, Arilton Teixeira, and Carlos Zarazaga.
Author | : Francis X. Diebold |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 438 |
Release | : 2020-10-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0691219583 |
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Author | : Ludwig Von Mises |
Publisher | : Ludwig von Mises Institute |
Total Pages | : 130 |
Release | : 1978 |
Genre | : Economics |
ISBN | : 1610164997 |
Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 613 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226978923 |
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author | : Alex Cukierman |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 430 |
Release | : 1992 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780262031943 |
These original contributions by some of today's leading macroeconomists and political economists explore a broad spectrum of social, political, and technological variables that encourage or impede economic growth. What political and economic factors stimulate growth and make an economy expand? These original contributions by some of today's leading macroeconomists and political economists explore a broad spectrum of social, political, and technological variables that encourage or impede economic growth. Topics range from economic reform and price flexibility to the economic effects of political coups and include both theoretical analysis and empirical results.During the past decade, economists have seen important new developments linking growth and business cycles to government policy. These contributions provide a clear understanding of these processes and their effect in shaping economic policy. They look at the welfare side of economics and offer strong economic models to explain the connection between social policies and economic growth. For example, John Londregan and Keith Poole address the economic effects of political coups, Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini explore the question of whether inequality is harmful for growth, and Stephen Parente and Edward Prescott look at the role of technology adoption in stimulating growth.The essays cover a wide range of approaches. Several focus on the interaction between growth and the choice of policy, where policy reacts to economic and distributional considerations through a majority rule process. Others take the policy as given and focus on the empirical estimation of the speed of convergence of rates of growth across states and regions and the importance of externalities and knowledge spillovers for rates of growth. Essays about the business cycle fall into two broad categories. One, arising from the new political economy tradition, examines the effects of elections and price decontrols on the business cycle. The other explores the implications of optimal economic policies in a representative agent framework for the cyclical behavior of the economy.
Author | : Ben S. Bernanke |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 321 |
Release | : 2009-01-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1400820278 |
From the Nobel Prize–winning economist and former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a landmark book that provides vital lessons for understanding financial crises and their sometimes-catastrophic economic effects As chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis, Ben Bernanke helped avert a greater financial disaster than the Great Depression. And he did so by drawing directly on what he had learned from years of studying the causes of the economic catastrophe of the 1930s—work for which he was later awarded the Nobel Prize. This influential work is collected in Essays on the Great Depression, an important account of the origins of the Depression and the economic lessons it teaches.
Author | : Philip A. Klein |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 235 |
Release | : 2019-07-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 131549227X |
This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
Author | : Philip A Klein |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 440 |
Release | : 2017-10-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1351695568 |
This title was first published in 1990.
Author | : Chester Arthur Phillips |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 290 |
Release | : 2011-10 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781258144203 |
Author | : W.H. Strigel |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 433 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642474659 |
Every two years the members of GIRET (= Centre for International Re search on Economic Tendency Surveys) meet at conferences in order to promote the scientific discussion and to encourage the exchange of ideas. CIRET is an international study group for research in the field of business cycle surveys. CIRET was founded in 1960 and has at present about 350 full and corresponding members in 35 different coun tries. The members either carry out business, investment or consumer 1 surveys or are working on a practical or methodological level with the results of such surveys. The most important topics of the GIRET conferences are the predictive value of survey data as trade cycle indicators, the utilization of qualitative data in econometric models, forecasts of capital expenditures based on plans of private companies, the usefulness of consumer surveys for trade cycle analyses. In September 1977 the 13th CIRET Conference took place in Munich. On the occasion of the three-day conference 27 papers were presented.