Essay on Labor-technology Substitution and Asset Pricing

Essay on Labor-technology Substitution and Asset Pricing
Author: Miao Zhang (Ph. D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 244
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation aims at understanding how firms' adoption of labor-saving production technologies affects their investment and employment decisions; and, ultimately, their stock returns. Chapter 1 theoretically studies a firm's decision to replace its routine-task labor with machines over the business cycle, and explores the asset pricing implications of this decision. The model extends the classical investment-based asset pricing models in which a firm's investment decisions are modeled as exercising real options. I extend the set of firm's real options to include both growth options, which increase the firm's output, and technology switching options, which increase the firm's efficiency, and focus on the latter options. A key assumption in my model is that switching from using routine-task labor to using machines interrupts firm production. Hence, the firm optimally chooses to make this switch when its profitability is low in order to minimize opportunity cost. As a result, if the economy experiences a negative shock, firms with routine-task labor can improve their value through exercising these switching options, making their value less sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the cross-section, firms with a higher share of routine-task labor should have lower expected rates of return for their stocks. Chapter 2 constructs an empirical measure of firms' share of routine-task labor, namely, RShare, and presents tests of the model's predictions on the investment, employment, and asset prices of firms with high and low RShares. I classify occupations into routine- and non-routine-task labor, following the labor economics literature, and I use the establishment-level occupational data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to construct RShare at the firm level. Consistent with my model's predictions, I find that within an industry, firms with a higher share of routine-task labor (i) invest more in machines and reduce disproportionately more of their routine-task labor during economic downturns, and (ii) have lower equity betas and returns.

Labor-Technology Substitution

Labor-Technology Substitution
Author: Miao Ben Zhang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper studies the asset pricing implications of a firm's opportunities to replace routine-task labor with automation. I develop a model in which firms optimally undertake this replacement when their productivity is low. Hence, firms with routine-task labor maintain a replacement option that hedges their value against unfavorable macroeconomic shocks and lowers their expected returns. Using establishment-level occupational data, I construct a measure of firms' share of routine-task labor. Compared to their industry peers, firms with a higher share of routine-task labor (i) invest more in machines and reduce disproportionately more routine-task labor during economic downturns, and (ii) have lower expected stock returns.

Essays in Technology Diffusion and Asset Pricing

Essays in Technology Diffusion and Asset Pricing
Author: Ziemowit Konrad Bednarek
Publisher:
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

First chapter of this thesis finds a new consumption growth predictor linked to macroeconomic fundamentals: the technology gap, the dierence between potential and actual productivity of capital. I construct a representative firm business cycle model, in which the technology gap generates specic patterns of short- and long-run consumption growth, and consumption growth volatility. Intuitively, a high technology gap acts as an economic shock that increases consumption in the long term due to a higher future productivity level. I use quality-adjusted price indices of durable investment goods to create a proxy for the technology gap. Consistent with the model, I find empirical evidence that a high technology gap predicts: (i) strong consumption growth at longer horizons, (ii) high consumption growth volatility, and (iii) high risk-free rate. Second chapter demonstrates the relationship between research and development expenditure, and firm productivity. I construct a model which implies that firm-level R & D optimal policy should be dependent on ex-ante productivity. Firms ex-ante further from the frontier optimally invest more in R & D. Ex-post productivity depends on the amount of R & D investment and the match between new technology and existing production factors. Firms investing more in R & D are ex-post on average closer to the frontier, controlling for theoretically motivated endogeneity. I present empirical evidence supporting the model. Using data envelopment, I construct a measure of firm-level distance from industry-wide productivity frontier. On average, a 1% larger distance from the frontier causes a 0.5% increase in R & D intensity next quarter. R & D activity in turn predicts high stock return volatility. Third chapter tests the existing durable consumption-based asset pricing model of Yogo (2006). Consumption risk is measured by the covariance between asset returns and future durable consumption growth, rather than contemporaneous growth, as in the original model. I present empirical evidence that excess returns on Fama-French portfolios are correlated more with future than contemporaneous durable consumption growth. I transform the original Euler equations of the model to use information about the future consumption growth. As its correlation with returns is higher, the estimate of risk aversion from the model decreases substantially compared with Yogo (2006). I also find that the altered consumption risk measure increases the explanatory power of the model. I approximate the original model and show that it can be estimated in the simple OLS framework. Cross-sectional R square is highest when the consumption growth is sampled over six to eight quarters ahead. This result is robust to dierent sets of test assets.

Automation and the Displacement of Labor by Capital

Automation and the Displacement of Labor by Capital
Author: Jiri Knesl
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

I examine the asset pricing implications of technological innovations that allow capital to displace labor: automation. I develop a theory in which firms with high share of displaceable labor are negatively exposed to such technology shocks. In the model, firms optimally adopt technology to gain competitive advantage in the product market. Although automation increases an individual firm's competitive advantage, in equilibrium competition erodes profits and decreases firm value. Empirically, I develop a firm-level measure of displaceable labor share, based on detailed job classifications from the O*NET database, and find that firms with high displaceable labor share have negative exposure to technology shocks. A long-short portfolio sorted on this new measure is highly correlated with existing macroeconomic measures of technology shocks. Firms with negative exposure to these technology shocks earn a 4% per year return premium. The premium is positively predicted by decreases in the cost of capital goods. At the firm level, I confirm that a large negative exposure to technology shocks predicts lower employment and profitability following technology shocks, and these effects are amplified by higher within-industry competition.

Labor Mobility

Labor Mobility
Author: Andres Donangelo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

Labor mobility is the flexibility of workers to walk away from an industry in response to better opportunities. I develop a model in which labor flows make bad times worse for shareholders who are left with capital that is less productive. The model shows that firms face greater operating leverage by providing flexibility to mobile workers. I construct an empirical measure of labor mobility consistent with the model and document an economically significant cross-sectional relation between mobility, operating leverage, and stock returns. I find that firms in mobile industries earn returns over 5% higher than those in less mobile industries.Measure of labor mobility used in the paper is available in my website.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Author: Alexis Stenfors
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 217
Release: 2020-07-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0429629613

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, central bankers around the world have been forced to abandon conventional monetary policy tools in favour of unconventional policies such as quantitative easing, forward guidance, lowering the interest rate paid on bank reserves into negative territory, and pushing up prices of government bonds. Having faced a crisis in its banking sector nearly a decade earlier, Japan was a pioneer in the use of many of these tools. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability critically assesses the measures used by Japan and examines what they have meant for the theory and practice of economic policy. The book shows how in practice unconventional monetary policy has worked through its impact on the financial markets. The text aims to generate an understanding of why such measures were introduced and how the Japanese system has subsequently changed regarding aspects such as governance and corporate balance sheets. It provides a comprehensive study of developments in Japanese money markets with the intent to understand the impact of policy on the debt structures that appear to have caused Japan’s deflation. The topics covered range from central bank communication and policymaking to international financial markets and bank balance sheets. This text is of great interest to students and scholars of banking, international finance, financial markets, political economy, and the Japanese economy.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992
Author: Olivier Blanchard
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 312
Release: 1992
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262521741

This is the seventh in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics. Contents What Shall We Do Today? Goals and Signposts in the Operation of Monetary Policy, Ben S. Bernanke and Frederic S. Mishkin - A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore, Alwyn Young - International Trade and the Wage Structure, Steven J. Davis - Imperfect Information and Macroeconomic Analysis, Joseph E. Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald - Asset Pricing Lessons for Macroeconomics, Lars P. Hansen and John H. Cochrane - Postmortem on the Debt Crisis, Daniel Cohen

Technology and the Future of Work

Technology and the Future of Work
Author: Balwant Singh Mehta
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 233
Release: 2024-10-07
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1040155367

This book examines how the progress of digital technology is transforming the world of work, skill demand, labour market institutions, and regulations in countries like India. It studies the challenges, opportunities, and current and future contributions of digital technologies. The volume poses salient questions regarding the ICT sector, I4.0 technologies, the gig economy, remote work, and the regulatory environment, and interrogates the policy and regulatory measures needed to promote more inclusive and decent work in the future. Part of the Towards Sustainable Futures series, this book will be an essential read for scholars and researchers of economics, sustainable development, sociology of work, labour economics, Indian economy, public policy, and human resource management. It will also be extremely useful to policymakers, government organisations, civil society organisations, and those in the corporate sector.