Equilibrium Exchange Rates In Transition Economies
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| Author | : Lionel Halpern |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 1996-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 145185479X |
A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.
| Author | : László Halpern |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 1996 |
| Genre | : Europe, Central |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mario I. Blejer |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 501 |
| Release | : 2007-08-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0585313466 |
Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies moving from a socialist to a market-based system The focus is on external sector developments, and the topics deal with balance of payments conditions, exchange rate policies and regimes, international competitiveness, international capital flows, trade, and other matters related to the integration of transition economies into the world economy. An understanding of the principles involved and of the experiences of both transition and advanced economies during this process is crucial to ensure its ultimate success. Written by internationally recognized scholars, the chapters cover these issues in a systematic manner. The first section treats current account developments, capital flows, and exchange rate policies in transition countries, the second section deals with specific issues related to international trade, and the final section consists of six specific country experiences. In this final section, a chapter dealing with the Russian Federation discusses the collapse of the ruble in August 1998.
| Author | : Ronald MacDonald |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 353 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9401144117 |
How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
| Author | : Balázs Égert |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9789516869615 |
This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.
| Author | : Christos Papazoglou |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 210 |
| Release | : 2001-05-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230554539 |
This book, based upon a large-scale research project, examines alternative types of exchange rate policies being pursued and the changing nature of exchange rate policy during the transition process in four countries, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic. The book brings together a series of original contributions by country experts and draws out some common themes and over-arching policy implications for the operation of exchange rate policy in the transition process.
| Author | : Ms.Kornelia Krajnyak |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 56 |
| Release | : 1997-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451923554 |
This paper estimates equilibrium dollar wages for 15 transition economies. Equilibrium dollar wages are interpreted as full employment wages consistent with a country’s physical and human capital endowment, and estimated by regressing actual dollar wages on productivity and human capital proxies in a short (1990-95) panel of 85 countries. The main results are: (i) equilibrium dollar wages have appreciated steadily in the Baltic countries and fast-reforming Central and Eastern European (CEE) transition economies, but have been flat in most CIS countries; and (ii) 1996 actual dollar wages remain below estimated equilibrium dollar wages for most but not all transition countries covered.
| Author | : Byng-Yen Kim |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange rates |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Byung-Yeon Kim |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9789516868472 |
We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator. We find that exchange rates have converged in recent years in five transition countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. However, we also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied are substantially overvalued if real effective exchange rates are used. Published in: Economic Systems vol 29, no 2 (2005), pp. 144-162, ISSN 0939-3625.
| Author | : Jörg Rahn |
| Publisher | : Peter Lang Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 204 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The upcoming enlargement of the European Monetary Union involves the selection of appropriate reference rates at which the exchange rates of the accession countries will be fixed against the euro in order to avoid economic distortions as consequences of serious exchange rate misalignments. Determination of an exchange rate that is neither undervalued nor overvalued raises the issue of equilibrium exchange rates. Based on time series as well as panel estimation techniques three different concepts - BEER, PEER and PPP - are applied in this study to calculate equilibrium exchange rate levels for ten Central and Eastern European countries. The results indicate significant real misalignments in a number of accession countries.
