Empirical Testing For Martingale Property
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Author | : Amira Akl Ahmed |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
In the current thesis, the efficiency of the Egyptian and other four MENA exchanges is examined. The first issue of interest is whether market efficiency in Egypt is related to size and regulatory changes. Employing weekly data for the period 1997-2007 and a battery of variance ratio tests (VRs), results indicated that the market was inefficient in pricing all securities during the first sub-period with tight price limits regime, however; it has become efficient in pricing securities, excluding small-capitalized firms, after the expansion of price limits coupled with adopting trading halt for few minutes if prices hit their new limits. The second issue considered is testing for weak-form-efficiency in five MENA exchanges during 1995-2009 using VRs in rolling window estimation to accommodate developments in the underlying exchanges. Results indicate that Turkish and Israeli exchanges are the most efficient throughout the whole period whereas both the Egyptian and Moroccan exchanges moved towards efficiency since late 2002 and the Jordanian exchange experienced inefficiencies during the end of the period. Exchange rates do not matter in determining the dynamics of equity markets examined. The last issue examined is the interdependence and information transmission across super sectors within the same exchange in Egypt, Turkey, and Israel. Multivariate co-integration analysis, which is executed from the domestic investor perspective, indicates the absence of long-term relationship in either exchange. In general, generalised impulse responses indicate that a positive shock in one index in either exchange affects other indexes in the same exchange. However, this impact tapers off quickly. More importantly, most of the impact is on the index experiencing the innovation and the effect on the remaining indexes is relatively small.
Author | : Tomomi Kumagai |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 132 |
Release | : 2001 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
In this thesis, I explore the properties of a martingale hypothesis test, and present three applications of the test that address empirical questions in asset-pricing finance. The martingale test exploits the lack of correlation between forecast error and the current information set. The test is designed to consider all alternatives, including linear and nonlinear relationships between the forecast error and a current information variable. When the current information variable is stationary, I follow the transformed empirical process approach of Koul and Stute (1999) to construct the appropriate test statistics for models with homoscedastic instantaneous variance and extend their results to models with conditional heteroscedasticity. When the current information variable is an integrated process, I follow the approach of Park and Whang (1999), and extend their results to account for estimated parameters, and derive the asymptotic properties. In the first application, I construct a test to determine if continuous-time affine diffusion models provide adequate approximations of observed discrete data, primarily with respect to the models' short-term forecastability. I apply the martingale hypothesis to test various parameteric specifications of the conditional means for the affine diffusion models. In the second application, I propose a unit-root type specification test for stochastic processes generated by linear functions of nonstationary integrated process, in order to test the random walk hypothesis in asset prices. In the third application, I construct a test of forward unbiasedness in order to relate the price of a futures contract to the future price of the underlying asset.
Author | : Terence C. Mills |
Publisher | : Palgrave Handbook of Econometr |
Total Pages | : 1432 |
Release | : 2009-06-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Palgrave Handbooks of Econometrics comprises 'landmark' essays by the world's leading scholars and provides authoritative guidance in key areas of econometrics. With definitive contributions on the subject, the Handbook is an essential source for reference for professional econometricians, economists, researchers and students. Following the successful Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume 1, this second volume brings together leading academics working in econometrics today and explores applied econometrics. Volume 2 contains contributions on subjects including growth/development econometrics, computing, microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance, spatial and urban economics and international economics.
Author | : Sardar M. N. Islam |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 208 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3790826669 |
This book makes two key contributions to empirical finance. First it provides a comprehensive analysis of the Thai stock market. Second it presents an excellent exposition ofhow modem econometric techniques can be utilised to understand a market. The increasing globalisation of the world's financial markets has made our un derstanding of the risk-return relationship in a broader range of markets critical. This is particularly so in emerging markets where market depth and liquidity are major issues. One such emerging market is Thailand. The Thai capital market isof particular interest given that it was the market in which the Asian financial crises commenced. As such an understanding ofthe Thai capital market via study of the pre and post-crisis periods enables one to shed light on one of the major financial markets events of recent times. This book provides a quantitative analysis of the Thai capital market using some very useful and recent econometric techniques. The book provides an over view of the Thai stock market in chapter 2. Descriptive statistics and time series models (moving average, exponential smoothing, ARIMA) are presented in chap ter 3 followed by market efficiency tests based on autocorrelations in chapter 4. A richer set of models is then considered in chapters 5 through 8. Chapter 5 finds a cointegrating relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock returns.
Author | : Peter C. B. Phillips |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The paper develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, non-martingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional heteroskedasticity and mildly explosive alternatives. An empirical application to major exchange rate data finds strong evidence in favor of the martingale hypothesis, confirming much earlier research.
Author | : Michael R. Kosorok |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 482 |
Release | : 2007-12-29 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0387749780 |
Kosorok’s brilliant text provides a self-contained introduction to empirical processes and semiparametric inference. These powerful research techniques are surprisingly useful for developing methods of statistical inference for complex models and in understanding the properties of such methods. This is an authoritative text that covers all the bases, and also a friendly and gradual introduction to the area. The book can be used as research reference and textbook.
Author | : Norman Ehrentreich |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 238 |
Release | : 2007-10-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3540738789 |
This book reconciles the existence of technical trading with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By analyzing a well-known agent-based model, the Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market (SFI-ASM), it finds that when selective forces are weak, financial evolution cannot guarantee that only the fittest trading rules will survive. Its main contribution lies in the application of standard results from population genetics which have widely been neglected in the agent-based community.
Author | : P. Hall |
Publisher | : Academic Press |
Total Pages | : 321 |
Release | : 2014-07-10 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1483263223 |
Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application discusses the asymptotic properties of martingales, particularly as regards key prototype of probabilistic behavior that has wide applications. The book explains the thesis that martingale theory is central to probability theory, and also examines the relationships between martingales and processes embeddable in or approximated by Brownian motion. The text reviews the martingale convergence theorem, the classical limit theory and analogs, and the martingale limit theorems viewed as the rate of convergence results in the martingale convergence theorem. The book explains the square function inequalities, weak law of large numbers, as well as the strong law of large numbers. The text discusses the reverse martingales, martingale tail sums, the invariance principles in the central limit theorem, and also the law of the iterated logarithm. The book investigates the limit theory for stationary processes via corresponding results for approximating martingales and the estimation of parameters from stochastic processes. The text can be profitably used as a reference for mathematicians, advanced students, and professors of higher mathematics or statistics.
Author | : Richard T. Baillie |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 280 |
Release | : 1989 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521396905 |
The flotation of exchange rates in the early 1970s saw a significant increase in the importance of foreign exchange markets and in the interest shown in them. Apart from the consequent institutional changes, this period also witnessed a revolution in macroeconomic analysis and finance theory based on the concept of rational expectations. This book provides an integrated approach to recent developments in the understanding of foreign exchange markets. It begins by charting the institutional background and looks at the recent history of movements in some of the major exchange rates. The theoretical sections focus on the economic and finance theory of the asset market approach, the macroeconomic models developed from this approach, and on interest rate parity theory. The empirical chapters draw on the authors' own research from a high quality set of exchange rate and interest rate data. The statistical properties of exchange rates are analysed; the relationship between spot and forward rates is examined; and the modelling and impact of new information on the forward and spot relationship is considered. The final chapter is devoted to the estimation and testing of exchange rate models.
Author | : Poitras Geoffrey |
Publisher | : World Scientific Publishing Company |
Total Pages | : 764 |
Release | : 2010-12-21 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9813107812 |
This book provides a comprehensive and rigorous treatment of academic and practitioner approaches to equity security valuation. Guided by historical and philosophical insights, conventional academic wisdom surrounding the ergodic properties of stochastic processes is challenged. In addition, the implications of a general stochastic interpretation of equity security valuation are provided. Valuation of Equity Securities will also be a good reference source for students and professionals interested in the theoretical and practical applications of equity securities.