Economics Economists And Expectations
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| Author | : George W. Evans |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 440 |
| Release | : 2012-01-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400824265 |
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
| Author | : R. Koppl |
| Publisher | : Palgrave Macmillan |
| Total Pages | : 266 |
| Release | : 2002-06-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780333678268 |
Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory of expectations that assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. Building on the evolutionary economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary policy interventions create ignorance and uncertainty. The volume uses innovative methods to address many vital problems in economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional Economics and Post Walsarian Economics.
| Author | : Steven M. Sheffrin |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 204 |
| Release | : 1996-06-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780521479394 |
This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.
| Author | : Paul R. Krugman |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 260 |
| Release | : 1997 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262611343 |
This edition looks at how risky behaviour can lead to disaster in private markets, with colourful examples from Lloyd's of London and Sumitomo Metals. Krugman also considers the collapse of the Mexican peso, and the burst of Japan's 'bubble' economy.
| Author | : Thomas J. Sargent |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 390 |
| Release | : 2013-05-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400847648 |
A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.
| Author | : Frederic S. Mishkin |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 2007-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226531929 |
A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
| Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 402 |
| Release | : 2009-12-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
| Author | : Paul R. Krugman |
| Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
| Total Pages | : 326 |
| Release | : 1995-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780393312928 |
The past twenty years have been an era of economic disappointment in the U.S. They have also been a time of intense economic debate, as rival ideologies contend for policy influence. But strange things have happened to economic ideas on their way to power--they've been hijacked by policy entrepreneurs who offer easy answers to hard problems.
| Author | : Arie Arnon |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 244 |
| Release | : 2020-03-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030413578 |
This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
| Author | : Martin Eichenbaum |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 517 |
| Release | : 2016-06-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 022639574X |
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
