Economic Dynamics, second edition

Economic Dynamics, second edition
Author: John Stachurski
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2022-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262544776

The second edition of a rigorous and example-driven introduction to topics in economic dynamics that emphasizes techniques for modeling dynamic systems. This text provides an introduction to the modern theory of economic dynamics, with emphasis on mathematical and computational techniques for modeling dynamic systems. Written to be both rigorous and engaging, the book shows how sound understanding of the underlying theory leads to effective algorithms for solving real-world problems. The material makes extensive use of programming examples to illustrate ideas, bringing to life the abstract concepts in the text. Key topics include algorithms and scientific computing, simulation, Markov models, and dynamic programming. Part I introduces fundamentals and part II covers more advanced material. This second edition has been thoroughly updated, drawing on recent research in the field. New for the second edition: “Programming-language agnostic” presentation using pseudocode. New chapter 1 covering conceptual issues concerning Markov chains such as ergodicity and stability. New focus in chapter 2 on algorithms and techniques for program design and high-performance computing. New focus on household problems rather than optimal growth in material on dynamic programming. Solutions to many exercises, code, and other resources available on a supplementary website.

Consumer Expectations

Consumer Expectations
Author: Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2019-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108576931

Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.

Essays on Expectations in Macroeconomics

Essays on Expectations in Macroeconomics
Author: Ina Hajdini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

My dissertation studies and quantifies the implications of various expectations formation processes for what concerns macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy transmission. The first chapter (joint work with Marco Airaudo) studies the existence of Stochastic Consistent Expectations Equilibria (SCEE) in linear Markov regime switching models. A SCEE exists when the model-implied mean and first order autocorrelation coincide with those predicted by the agents via misspecified forecasting rules. For a simple regime-switching monetary policy model, the parametric space where at least one SCEE exists is rather wide, and may extend well beyond the rational expectations equilibrium determinacy frontier. Misspecified expectations combined with regime-switching yield a strong endogenous amplification mechanism that help generate the near unit root dynamics for inflation observed in the U.S. before the Great Moderation. The second chapter considers a New Keynesian model in which agents form expectations based on a combination of misspecified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is tested against Rational Expectations (RE), as well other assumptions about expectations, with inflation forecasting data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-based Bayesian methods. The paper yields three novel results: (i) Datastrongly prefer the combination of autoregressive misspecified forecasting rules and myopia over other alternatives, including RE; (ii) The best fitting expectations formation process for both households and firms is characterized by high degrees of myopia and simple AR(1) forecasting rules; (iii) Despite the absence of real rigidities typically found necessary for New Keynesian models with RE, the estimated model with autoregressive forecasts and myopia generates substantial internal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks. The third chapter proves that in Full-Information RE models with exogenous Markov regime shifts, ex-post regime-dependent forecasting errors can be described by available information at the time of forecast and ex-ante forecasting revisions, separately. In economic environments with structural changes, the FIRE hypothesis gives rise to waves of over-and under-response of forecasters to current events as well as new aggregate information at the time of forecast. Using inflation and output growth forecasting data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the paper presents new evidence of such waves, consistent with implications of Full-Information RE in models with regime shifts. Finally, the framework and insights are generalized to any dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with exogenous Markov shifts, whose RE solution can be written as a Markov Switching VAR process.

The Concept of Equilibrium in Different Economic Traditions

The Concept of Equilibrium in Different Economic Traditions
Author: Bert Tieben
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 689
Release: 2012-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1781953511

'Bert Tieben is very well read in the history of economic thought and provides an overview of one of the basic concepts of economics that is unrivalled both in its scope and in its thoughtful and detailed discussion of the various currents and schools. It goes right to the heart of economic theory and asks some pertinent questions about the limits and the future of economic theorizing. That is, I think, what sets it apart from many other studies in the history of economic thought: it is history with an eye to the future, and it does all this without making any demands on the mathematical skills of the reader. This book should therefore appeal to everybody who is interested in the methodology of economics and in exploring the boundaries of economic analysis.' Hans Visser, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book deals with one of the most puzzling concepts in economic science, that of economic equilibrium. In modern economics, equilibrium is considered a key assumption, but its role is contested by economists both from within the mainstream and from rival schools of thought. What explains the contradictory assessments of the equilibrium concept in economics? Do economists belonging to different traditions disagree about the definition of equilibrium or do they adopt different rules for assessing scientific status? In this unique and exhaustive study, Bert Tieben answers these questions by investigating the history of equilibrium economics from 1700 to the present day. He concludes that ideology strongly coloured the development of this branch of theory, helping to explain the vehemence of the debates surrounding the concept. He also argues that scientific progress in economics may indeed be fostered by such opposition and contention, and calls for cross fertilization and stronger cooperation between the different schools of thought. This resourceful book will appeal to post graduate students and scholars in the history of economic thought and economic methodology. Both neoclassical and heterodox economists, most notably Austrian, post Keynesian and institutional economists, will also find much to interest them.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Introduction to Agent-Based Economics

Introduction to Agent-Based Economics
Author: Mauro Gallegati
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2017-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128039035

Introduction to Agent-Based Economics describes the principal elements of agent-based computational economics (ACE). It illustrates ACE’s theoretical foundations, which are rooted in the application of the concept of complexity to the social sciences, and it depicts its growth and development from a non-linear out-of-equilibrium approach to a state-of-the-art agent-based macroeconomics. The book helps readers gain a better understanding of the limits and perspectives of the ACE models and their capacity to reproduce economic phenomena and empirical patterns. Reviews the literature of agent-based computational economics Analyzes approaches to agents’ expectations Covers one of the few large macroeconomic agent-based models, the Modellaccio Illustrates both analytical and computational methodologies for producing tractable solutions of macro ACE models Describes diffusion and amplification mechanisms Depicts macroeconomic experiments related to ACE implementations

Business Cycle Theory

Business Cycle Theory
Author: Günter Gabisch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642747159

"Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the 1960s regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in Western economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly be come irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anticyclic demand policies. From the 1950s until the mid-1960s business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose dependence on particular parameter values (in order to exhibit oscillatory motion) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of persistent fluctuations. The obvi ous success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into stabilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the 1960s which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226531929

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.