Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief

Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief
Author: Erica Yu
Publisher: Frontiers E-books
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2014-10-24
Genre: Decision making
ISBN: 2889192709

At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior
Author: Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 433
Release: 1998-08-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0309523893

Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Credition - An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Nature of Beliefs and Believing

Credition - An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Nature of Beliefs and Believing
Author: Rüdiger J. Seitz
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2023-07-27
Genre: Science
ISBN: 2832529933

The concept of credition represents an innovative research field at the interface of the natural sciences and the humanities addressing the nature of beliefs and believing. Credition signifies the integrative information processing that is brought about by neurophysiologically defined neural activity in the brain affording decision making. In analogy to cognition and emotion it is mediated by neural processes and constrains behavior by predictive coding. Three categories of beliefs have been defined on the background of evolutionary biology that can be differentiated linguistically. The goal of the collection of research papers is to provide an interdisciplinary discourse on an international level in the emerging field of credition. On this basis individual, group-specific and cultural narratives of secular and non-secular origin can become normative, in particular, when enhanced by ritual acts. Also, the recently defined belief categories can pave the way for novel approaches of empirical research on the formation of civilizations and cultures as well as for new perspectives on the psychopathological understanding of mental disorders. The disciplines of empirical research such as cognitive science, neurophysiology, neuropsychology, social neuroscience shall counteract with theoretical disciplines such as anthropology, philosophy, and theology in order to elaborate premises that are suited to bridge the scientific gap. The potential contributors will submit their abstracts such that they are available for the International meeting, Credition - An Interdisciplinary Challenge, that is going to take place in October 2021 in Hannover, Germany. Following the symposium, the participants shall elaborate their perspective concerning beliefs and believing, based on their expertise, and the information they have learned during the symposium. The authors are expected to submit a concise paper of 2000 words (C Type Article).

Policy Studies Review Annual

Policy Studies Review Annual
Author: Irving Louis Horowitz
Publisher: Transaction Publishers
Total Pages: 776
Release: 1981-07-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9780803913158

Judgment and Decision Making

Judgment and Decision Making
Author: David Hardman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 246
Release: 2009-02-09
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 1405123982

Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways people make judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making, individual differences, group decision making, and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies and cartoons

The Handbook of Rationality

The Handbook of Rationality
Author: Markus Knauff
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 879
Release: 2021-12-14
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 026236185X

The first reference on rationality that integrates accounts from psychology and philosophy, covering descriptive and normative theories from both disciplines. Both analytic philosophy and cognitive psychology have made dramatic advances in understanding rationality, but there has been little interaction between the disciplines. This volume offers the first integrated overview of the state of the art in the psychology and philosophy of rationality. Written by leading experts from both disciplines, The Handbook of Rationality covers the main normative and descriptive theories of rationality—how people ought to think, how they actually think, and why we often deviate from what we can call rational. It also offers insights from other fields such as artificial intelligence, economics, the social sciences, and cognitive neuroscience. The Handbook proposes a novel classification system for researchers in human rationality, and it creates new connections between rationality research in philosophy, psychology, and other disciplines. Following the basic distinction between theoretical and practical rationality, the book first considers the theoretical side, including normative and descriptive theories of logical, probabilistic, causal, and defeasible reasoning. It then turns to the practical side, discussing topics such as decision making, bounded rationality, game theory, deontic and legal reasoning, and the relation between rationality and morality. Finally, it covers topics that arise in both theoretical and practical rationality, including visual and spatial thinking, scientific rationality, how children learn to reason rationally, and the connection between intelligence and rationality.

Choice-Free Rationality

Choice-Free Rationality
Author: Robert Grafstein
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
Total Pages: 248
Release: 1999-10-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0472110543

DIVOffers an alternative to the definition of 'rationality' for rational choice theory /div

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences
Author: Mark J. Machina
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 373
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475745923

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field. This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory. In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances. It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions. The volume is organized in three main blocks: The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field. A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense. The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

Preference, Belief, and Similarity

Preference, Belief, and Similarity
Author: Amos Tversky
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 1046
Release: 2003-11-21
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 9780262700931

Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.