Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices

Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices
Author: Noureddine Krichene
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2006-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil. A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals. Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals. Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean.

Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets

Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets
Author: Alessandro Lanza
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we investigate crude oil and products price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten price series of crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products, considering four distinct market areas (Mediterranean, North Western Europe, Latin America and North America) over the period 1994-2002. We provide first a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models. Subsequently we use the error correction specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002. The main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: a) differences in quality are crucial to understand the behaviour of crudes; b) prices of crude oils whose physical characteristics are more similar to the marker show the following regularities: b1) they converge more rapidly to the long-run equilibrium; b2) there is an almost monotonic relation between Mean Absolute Percentage Error values and crude quality, measured by API gravity and sulphur concentration; c) the price of the marker is the driving variable of the crude price also in the short-run, irrespective of the specific geographical area and the quality of the crude under analysis.

Volatility of Oil Prices

Volatility of Oil Prices
Author: Mr.Peter Wickham
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 1996-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451954727

This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2017-09-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484318439

We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude Oil Prices
Author: Robert Bacon
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

Many developing countries are becoming oil exporters, producing crude oils that often differ markedly in quality from those principally traded. Governments must predict the prices of such crudes, to forecast revenue and evaluate the fairness of the price they receive from companies selling on their behalf. Oil companies, and industry consultants, have models for analyzing price differentials with well-known "marker" crudes, but these models have not been widely known, or adapted to account for increasingly important quality characteristics, such as acidity. This note explains a methodology for price analysis, and a new extension for incorporating acidity, which can have a big effect on the price differential.

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through
Author: Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2017-01-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475567774

This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.