Dynamical Modeling Of The Onset Of War
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| Author | : Alvin M. Saperstein |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 152 |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9789810240646 |
Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the ?technology? of policy making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This book explores the applicability of predictability ? based upon dynamical modeling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity ? to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy making and hence the growth of the science of international relations.
| Author | : Andrew Zammit-Mangion |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 82 |
| Release | : 2013-09-30 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3319010387 |
This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.
| Author | : H. Sedaghat |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 396 |
| Release | : 2013-03-14 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9401704171 |
It is generally acknowledged that deterministic formulations of dy namical phenomena in the social sciences need to be treated differently from similar formulations in the natural sciences. Social science phe nomena typically defy precise measurements or data collection that are comparable in accuracy and detail to those in the natural sciences. Con sequently, a deterministic model is rarely expected to yield a precise description of the actual phenomenon being modelled. Nevertheless, as may be inferred from a study of the models discussed in this book, the qualitative analysis of deterministic models has an important role to play in understanding the fundamental mechanisms behind social sci ence phenomena. The reach of such analysis extends far beyond tech nical clarifications of classical theories that were generally expressed in imprecise literary prose. The inherent lack of precise knowledge in the social sciences is a fun damental trait that must be distinguished from "uncertainty. " For in stance, in mathematically modelling the stock market, uncertainty is a prime and indispensable component of a model. Indeed, in the stock market, the rules are specifically designed to make prediction impossible or at least very difficult. On the other hand, understanding concepts such as the "business cycle" involves economic and social mechanisms that are very different from the rules of the stock market. Here, far from seeking unpredictability, the intention of the modeller is a scientific one, i. e.
| Author | : Colin Evers |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 198 |
| Release | : 2022-02-20 |
| Genre | : Education |
| ISBN | : 1000542467 |
Why Context Matters in Educational Leadership: A New Theoretical Understanding is unique in the field of educational leadership studies. This book offers a systematic account of educational leadership from the perspective that context matters. It argues that studies of leadership in education can only progress if the importance of context is understood and presents context as a set of constraints under which leadership is exercised. A theoretical book that offers at last three major challenges to dominant positions in the field in a systematic way, it provides a new, coherent, and more realistic way to think about leadership in context.The chapters offer concrete steps for complex problem-solving in schools and will help schools tailor solutions to local constraints and circumstances. Written by leading scholars Colin W. Evers and Gabriele Lakomski, this book will be essential reading for students and researchers working in the fields of education, educational administration and leadership.
| Author | : Jeffrey T. Checkel |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 323 |
| Release | : 2013-01-24 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1107311098 |
Civil wars are the dominant form of violence in the contemporary international system, yet they are anything but local affairs. This book explores the border-crossing features of such wars by bringing together insights from international relations theory, sociology, and transnational politics with a rich comparative-quantitative literature. It highlights the causal mechanisms - framing, resource mobilization, socialization, among others - that link the international and transnational to the local, emphasizing the methods required to measure them. Contributors examine specific mechanisms leading to particular outcomes in civil conflicts ranging from Chechnya, to Afghanistan, to Sudan, to Turkey. Transnational Dynamics of Civil War thus provides a significant contribution to debates motivating the broader move to mechanism-based forms of explanation, and will engage students and researchers of international relations, comparative politics, and conflict processes.
| Author | : R.G. Coyle |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 436 |
| Release | : 1996-05-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780412617102 |
With NATO's bombing campaign against Serbia now over, what strategic, long-range plans will the alliance employ to restore stability to the region? As the global economy continually changes in response to worldwide events, what investment strategies will firms implement to cope with changing markets? And how can major pharmaceutical companies solve the problem of having newly-developed products abandoned before they can even be launched on the market? This book is designed and written to give the applied statistician an insight into all these areas of investigation.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 1520 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Books |
| ISBN | : |
Vols. 8-10 of the 1965-1984 master cumulation constitute a title index.
| Author | : John A. Sokolowski |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 288 |
| Release | : 2009-07-01 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780470486986 |
one-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international studies Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event¿s data. Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts: Advancing Global Studies—introduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed. Modeling Paradigms—examines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use. Modeling Global Events—applies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis. Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.
| Author | : Peter H. Zipfel |
| Publisher | : AIAA |
| Total Pages | : 586 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 9781563474569 |
A textbook for an advanced undergraduate course in which Zipfel (aerospace engineering, U. of Florida) introduces the fundamentals of an approach to, or step in, design that has become a field in and of itself. The first part assumes an introductory course in dynamics, and the second some specialized knowledge in subsystem technologies. Practicing engineers in the aerospace industry, he suggests, should be able to cover the material without a tutor. Rather than include a disk, he has made supplementary material available on the Internet. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
| Author | : Francis P. Hoeber |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 223 |
| Release | : 2021-05-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 100037131X |
This book, first published in 1981, offers a critical review of the techniques of mathematical modelling and their appropriate application to military operations research – the analysis of data (historical data, exercise and test results, and intelligence) in preparation for war. The virtues of sophistication via simplicity, and the beauty of the artful finesse, emerge as the signature of successful modelling.
