Dynamic Asset Allocation with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs
Author: Pierre Collin-Dufresne
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

We propose a simple approach to dynamic multi-period portfolio choice with transaction costs that is tractable in settings with a large number of securities, realistic return dynamics with multiple risk factors, many predictor variables, and stochastic volatility. We obtain a closed-form solution for an optimal trading rule when the problem is restricted to a broad class of strategies we define as 'linearity generating strategies' (LGS). When restricted to this class, the non-linear dynamic optimization problem reduces to a deterministic linear-quadratic optimization problem in the parameters of the trading strategies. We show that the LGS approach dominates several alternatives in realistic settings, and in particular when the covariance structure and transaction costs are stochastic.

Dynamic Asset Allocation With Event Risk, Transaction Costs and Predictable Returns

Dynamic Asset Allocation With Event Risk, Transaction Costs and Predictable Returns
Author: Jean-Guy Simonato
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

We examine the interplay between event risk, transaction costs and predictability on the dynamic asset allocation of an investor with discrete trading opportunities. The model is calibrated to the U.S. stock market and a Gauss-Hermite quadrature approach is used to solve the investor's dynamic optimization problem. Numerical scenarios are examined to show the impact of event risk on asset allocations, hedging demands, no-trading regions, and certainty equivalent returns. It is found that event risk shrinks hedging demand. Neglecting event risk can also lead to sizeable certainty equivalent return losses.

Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs

Dynamic Trading with Predictable Returns and Transaction Costs
Author: Nicolae Garleanu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre: Portfolio management
ISBN:

Abstract: This paper derives in closed form the optimal dynamic portfolio policy when trading is costly and security returns are predictable by signals with different mean-reversion speeds. The optimal updated portfolio is a linear combination of the existing portfolio, the optimal portfolio absent trading costs, and the optimal portfolio based on future expected returns and transaction costs. Predictors with slower mean reversion (alpha decay) get more weight since they lead to a favorable positioning both now and in the future. We implement the optimal policy for commodity futures and show that the resulting portfolio has superior returns net of trading costs relative to more naive benchmarks. Finally, we derive natural equilibrium implications, including that demand shocks with faster mean reversion command a higher return premium

Dynamic Asset Allocation Using a Combined Criteria Decision System

Dynamic Asset Allocation Using a Combined Criteria Decision System
Author: Giuseppe Galloppo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we examine the predictability of asset returns by developing an approach that combines quantitative methods of forecasting, based on technical analysis. As an innovation we introduce a multiple criteria decision system making simultaneous use of trend indicators and other confirming indicators. By combining trend indicators with confirming indicators it is possible to build a superior technical trading strategy that captures a more comprehensive aspect of predictability in past prices. This study also proposes a test for weak form efficiency based on a combining approach. Previous approaches typically make inferences based on the empirical results of testing only one class of technical rules. Applying the combining criteria decision system the evidence suggests that the strategies proposed here have predictive ability on a data sample based on three European stocks Index Markets. Our results rejects the null hypothesis that the returns earned from applying trading rules are equal to those achieved from a naive buy and hold strategy, even after deducting transaction costs. Evidence also suggests that oscillators capture some aspect of predictability in past prices that moving averages do not detect.

Multiple Risky Assets, Transaction Costs and Return Predictability

Multiple Risky Assets, Transaction Costs and Return Predictability
Author: Anthony W. Lynch
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

Our paper contributes to the dynamic portfolio choice and transaction cost literatures by considering a multiperiod CRRA individual who faces transaction costs and who has access to multiple risky assets, all with predictable returns. We numerically solve the individual's multiperiod problem in the presence of transaction costs and predictability. In particular, we characterize the investor's optimal portfolio choice with proportional and fixed transaction costs, and with return predictability similar to that observed for the U.S. stock market. We also perform some comparative statics to better understand the nature of the no-trade region with more than one risky asset. Throughout our focus is on the case with two risky assets. We also perform some utility comparisons. The calibration exercise reveals some interesting results about the relative attractiveness of the three equity portfolios calibrated.

Managing Transaction Costs in a Dynamic Trading Strategy

Managing Transaction Costs in a Dynamic Trading Strategy
Author: James A. Sefton
Publisher:
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

We derive an explicit solution to a continuous time dynamic portfolio problem assuming investors maximize their welfare from a consumption stream in an incomplete market where returns to the securities are predictable but costly to trade. The solution is phrased in terms of a risk-sensitive Riccati equation. We show that the optimal trading strategy is to target a portfolio that is the optimal solution to a frictionless (or 'no-cost') dynamic portfolio problem but where the returns to the assets have been adjusted for costs; that is they have been expressed on a net rather than gross basis. The legacy portfolio (the inherited undesirable positions) are then traded away in line with a backward-looking optimal execution problem. We show that the utility gradient is a stochastic discount factor that prices the assets net returns. Thus we are able to generalise some of the results of the martingale approach to dynamic portfolio theory to market with frictions.

Asset Pricing

Asset Pricing
Author: Hsien-hsing Liao
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 265
Release: 2003
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9812795618

Real estate finance is a fast-developing area where top quality research is in great demand. In the US, the real estate market is worth about US$4 trillion, and the REITs market about US$200 billion; tens of thousands of real estate professionals are working in this area. The market overseas could be considerably larger, especially in Asia. Given the rapidly growing real estate securities industry, this book fills an important gap in current real estate research and teaching. It is an ideal reference for investment professionals as well as senior MBA and PhD students. Contents: Introduction: Real Estate Analysis in a Dynamic Risk Environment; The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-Movement with Other Assets; The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing; A Time-Varying Risk Analysis of Equity and Real Estate Markets in the US and Japan; Price Reversal, Transaction Costs, and Arbitrage Profits in Real Estate Securities Market; Bank Risk and Real Estate: An Asset Pricing Perspective; Assessing the OC Santa ClausOCO Approach to Asset Allocation: Implications for Commercial Real Estate Investment; The Time-Variation of Risk for Life Insurance Companies; The Return Distributions of Property Shares in Emerging Markets; Conditional Risk Premiums of Asian Real Estate Stocks; Institutional Factors and Real Estate Returns: A Cross-Country Study. Readership: Financial researchers, real estate investors and investment bankers, as well as senior MBA and PhD students."

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.