Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics Across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link Between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

Dual Long Memory in Inflation Dynamics Across Countries of the Euro Area and the Link Between Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance
Author: Christian Conrad
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

This article analyzes the inflation dynamics of several countries belonging to the European Monetary Union and of the UK. We estimate the two main parameters driving the degree of persistence in inflation and its uncertainty using a dual long memory process. We also investigate the possible existence of heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across Euro area countries and examine the link between nominal uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. Strong evidence is provided for the hypothesis that increased inflation raises nominal uncertainty in all countries. However, we find that uncertainty surrounding future inflation has a mixed impact on output growth. This result brings out an important asymmetry in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Europe in addition to the difference in the economic sizes of the countries. We also investigate whether one can find a correlation between central bank independence and inflation policy. Our conclusion is that the most independent central banks are in countries where inflation falls in response to increased uncertainty.

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?
Author: Mr.Yasser Abdih
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2018-08-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484374185

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.

European Inflation Dynamics

European Inflation Dynamics
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2001
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.

Regional Inflation Dynamics within and Across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US.

Regional Inflation Dynamics within and Across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US.
Author: Günter W. Beck
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker's understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics.

Risk Factors And Contagion In Commodity Markets And Stocks Markets

Risk Factors And Contagion In Commodity Markets And Stocks Markets
Author: Stephane Goutte
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2020-04-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981121025X

The link between commodities prices and the business cycle, including variables such as real GDP, industrial production, unemployment, inflation, and market uncertainty, has often been debated in the macroeconomic literature. To quantify the impact of commodities on the economy, one can distinguish different modeling approaches. First, commodities can be represented as the pinnacle of cross-sectional financial asset prices. Second, price fluctuations due to seasonal variations, dramatic market changes, political and regulatory decisions, or technological shocks may adversely impact producers who use commodities as input. This latter effect creates the so-called 'commodities risk'. Additionally, commodities price fluctuations may spread to other sectors in the economy, via contagion effects. Besides, stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets; as a result, the financialization process also enhances the correlation between commodity markets and financial markets.Our objective in this book, Risk Factors and Contagion in Commodity Markets and Stocks Markets, lies in answering the following research questions: What are the interactions between commodities and stock market sentiment? Do some of these markets move together overtime? Did the financialization in energy commodities occur after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? These questions are essential to understand whether commodities are driven only by their fundamentals, or whether there is also a systemic component influenced by the volatility present within the stock markets.

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey
Author: Faruk Selcuk
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 242
Release: 2018-04-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1351739271

This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.

Regional Economic Issues--Special Report 25 Years of Transition

Regional Economic Issues--Special Report 25 Years of Transition
Author: Mr.James Roaf
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2014-10-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498332188

The past 25 years have seen a dramatic transformation in Europe’s former communist countries, resulting in their reintegration with the global economy, and, in most cases, major improvements in living standards. But the task of building full market economies has been difficult and protracted. Liberalization of trade and prices came quickly, but institutional reforms—such as governance reform, competition policy, privatization and enterprise restructuring—often faced opposition from vested interests. The results of the first years of transition were uneven. All countries suffered high inflation and major recessions as prices were freed and old economic linkages broke down. But the scale of output losses and the time taken for growth to return and inflation to be brought under control varied widely. Initial conditions and external factors played a role, but policies were critical too. Countries that undertook more front-loaded and bold reforms were rewarded with faster recovery and income convergence. Others were more vulnerable to the crises that swept the region in the wake of the 1997 Asia crisis.