Dominant Drivers Of Current Account Dynamics
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| Author | : Lukas Boer |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2024-04-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
We estimate shocks that explain most of the variation in the current account at business cycle frequencies and over the long run. We then explore, using a standard open-economy macro model, which macroeconomic shocks are behind the empirical dominant drivers of the current account at business-cycle frequency. Rather than financial shocks or aggregate shocks to supply or demand, shocks to the relative demand between home and foreign goods are found to play a pivotal role in current account dynamics.
| Author | : Sebastian Edwards |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 782 |
| Release | : 2002-11-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780226184944 |
Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
| Author | : Keyu Jin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The second essay incorporates endogenous factor-proportions trade into an inter-national business cycle setting and demonstrates that the integrated framework substantially improves upon past, standard models that assume exogenously-determined structures of trade in matching key moments of the international business cycle data, resolving the "anomalies" that arise in the standard framework. An additional implication is that the type of trade rather than overall trade between countries matters: countries trading goods that are similar in factor intensity (intraindustry trade) tend to exhibit negative investment comovement while countries whose trade is characterized by more disparate factor content tend to exhibit greater investment comovement. The third essay, on a portfolio perspective of international capital flows, analyzes a useful accounting framework that breaks down the current account to two components: a portfolio reallocation effect and a portfolio growth effect. Past empirical evidence strongly supporting the growth-effect as the main driver of current account dynamics is misconceived. Its remarkable empirical success is driven by the dominance of the cross-sectional variation, which, under conditions met by the data, is generated by an accounting approximation. Finally, this chapter shows that the portfolio reallocation effect is the quantitatively dominant driving force of current account dynamics in the past data.
| Author | : Leslie Lipschitz |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 312 |
| Release | : 2019-01-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1108568467 |
Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
| Author | : Marcel Fratzscher |
| Publisher | : DIANE Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 55 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1437923631 |
Assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. The G7 has been effective in moving the U.S. dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, as well as its ability to form and communicate a consensus among individual G7 members, are important determinants for the G7¿s ability to manage major currencies. This paper concludes by analyzing the factors that help the G7 build reputation and consensus, and by discussing the implications for global economic governance. Charts and tables.
| Author | : Richard H. Clarida |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 518 |
| Release | : 2007-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226107280 |
The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2017-02-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475578482 |
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about 1⁄2 of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
| Author | : National Intelligence Council |
| Publisher | : Cosimo Reports |
| Total Pages | : 158 |
| Release | : 2021-03 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781646794973 |
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
| Author | : Nagwa Riad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 87 |
| Release | : 2012-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1463973101 |
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
| Author | : Erlend Nier |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2014-10-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498352928 |
This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.
