Does Uncertainty Matter A Stochastic Dynamic Analysis Of Bankable Emission Permit Trading For Global Climate Change Policy
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Author | : Fan Zhang |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Abstract: Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements, as well as large compliance costs, therefore imposing a tradeoff between environmental benefits and economic efficiency. The author discusses policy implications for designing an effective and efficient global carbon market.
Author | : Fan Zhang |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements, as well as large compliance costs, therefore imposing a tradeoff between environmental benefits and economic efficiency. The author discusses policy implications for designing an effective and efficient global carbon market.
Author | : Matias D. Cattaneo |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 106 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Child welfare |
ISBN | : |
Despite the importance of housing for people's well-being, there has been little work done to assess the causal impact of housing and housing improvement programs on health and welfare. In this paper the authors help fill this gap by investigating the impact of a large-scale effort by the Mexican government to replace dirt floors with cement floors on child health and adult happiness. They find that replacing dirt floors with cement floors significantly reduces parasitic infestations in young children, reduces diarrhea, reduces anemia, and improves cognitive development. Finally, they also find that this program leave adults substantially better off, as measured by satisfaction with their housing and quality of life and by their significantly lower rates of depression and perceived stress.
Author | : United Nations Library (Geneva, Switzerland) |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 600 |
Release | : 2007-07 |
Genre | : International law |
ISBN | : |
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 290 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Economic assistance |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Gary M. Zatzman |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 608 |
Release | : 2012-02-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0470901632 |
This is the first book to address the issues of affordable power, sustainable energy, and reduced environmental impact through the science of energy pricing. Looking at the availability of natural resources from an engineering perspective, and determining how they can be priced to achieve sustainability in the energy sector, is the aim of this groundbreaking new work. Most current models used in energy pricing are based on linear analyses. While these models work well for targeted scenarios within a short time frame, they do not provide one with a scientific tool that can include many facets of the information age. The existing models do not include environmental sustainability in an integrated fashion. This is mainly because environmental costs are still considered to be intangible, and intractable with conventional economic analysis tools. Though one existing model acknowledges some possible theoretical truth to concerns expressed about the onset of 'peak oil'—the period in which new oil production must begin a decline of unknown and indefinite duration —this model has little or nothing to say about continuing practices in the extraction and production of fossil fuel that are themselves based on denying any significance or role for such thinking in the immediate future. A serious limitation of that discourse is its insistence on polarizing opinions "for" or "against" environmental sustainability, peak oil, and affordable energy prices. This book proceeds instead to isolate the absence of any agreed criteria for what would constitute inherently sustainable development and examines the main outlines of the history and political economy of energy resource exploration and development since the 1850s from this standpoint. It proposes specific directions in which to take some of the leading alternatives and amendments to current energy pricing practices (as well as some of the most promising energy development alternatives) in order to fulfill the time criteria required for an inherently sustainable trend. The author shows how, and why, identifying unsustainable practices and consequences can make a case for closing down particular oil and gas production operations, while averting the time-wasting approach of trying to fix what really has gone beyond fixing. However, it is possible, necessary, and actually far better to replace these methods with newer, scientifically based methods for achieving overall energy sustainability.
Author | : |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 286 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0821374060 |
This pocket-sized reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries includes key indicators on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. The volume helps establish a sound base of information to help set priorities and measure progress toward environmental sustainability goals.
Author | : Gary M. Zatzman |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 337 |
Release | : 2012-12-10 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 1118568818 |
Taking a fresh new look at the energy industry and how the Earth's resources are being developed, the aim of this book is to aid engineers and scientists in attaining sustainability in this field, both from an economic and environmental perspective. The author herein presents engineering research and practice that is focused on achieving energy sustainability from a global perspective, as is also outlined in other Scrivener books, such as The Greening of Petroleum Operations and the author's own recently published book, Sustainable Energy Pricing, the companion volume to this book. The author applies the principles of economic sustainability developed there to re-examine actual engineering practices in fossil fuel and alternative energy (such as wind and tidal power) exploration and development. One of the book’s unique features is its analysis of what is deficient in the thinking and analytical frameworks that inform engineering work done in the field. The book addresses the complex issues surrounding our quest for sustainability and the key causes of the challenges that face the energy industry and its resource development. From this standpoint, the book challenges the reasoning and conclusions drawn from the often-quoted theory of "peak oil".
Author | : Truman Packard |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 64 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Informal sector (Economics) |
ISBN | : |
The degree to which a labor market is segmented and jobs in the formal sector of the economy are rationed is critical to the analysis of coverage of social insurance and pensions. Using unique panel data spanning the 1998-99 contraction in Chile, the author finds little evidence that self-employment is the residual sector of a dualistic labor market, as is often depicted in the literature. Data on transitions between sectors show that self-employment is not a free-entry sector, and that entrepreneurs can be "pushed" out of self-employment just as others are pushed out of formal employment during economic downturns. But employment without a contract does exhibit many of the features of the free-entry, employment safety net depicted in the dualistic literature. An annex to this paper presents supportive evidence from static analysis of selection-corrected wage differentials and a comment on the drawbacks of this approach.
Author | : Derek Hung Chiat Chen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 56 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Knowledge management |
ISBN | : |
The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) database measures variables that may be used to assess the readiness of countries for the knowledge economy and has many policy uses. Formal analysis using KAM data is faced with the problem of which variables to choose and why. Rather than make these decisions in an ad hoc manner, the authors recommend factor-analytic methods to distill the information contained in the many KAM variables into a smaller set of "factors." Their main objective is to quantify the factors for each country, and to do so in a way that allows comparisons of the factor scores over time. The authors investigate both principal components as well as true factor analytic methods, and emphasize simple structures that help provide a clear political-economic meaning of the factors, but also allow comparisons over time.