Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Assessing the Effects of Inflation Targeting Track Records on Macroeconomic Performance

Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Assessing the Effects of Inflation Targeting Track Records on Macroeconomic Performance
Author: Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2022-11-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Inflation Targeting (IT) has become a prevalent monetary policy framework in the past three decades, as more central banks adopted and maintained price stability as their primary monetary policy mandate. Using a dataset of 68 major advanced countries and emerging markets economies, this paper evaluates the effects of inflation targeting countries’ track records on their macroeconomic performance, measured by real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper constructs three novel inflation targeting track record measures and establishes new stylized facts on the heterogeneity of inflation targeting countries’ tendency in managing inflation with respect to their stated objectives. This paper finds evidence that most targeters conduct dynamic inflation targeting by frequently updating inflation target bands, and their band sizes are wide-ranging across IT countries. We empirically study the contemporaneous and future effects of inflation targeting track records on countries’ macroeconomic performance. Results from the dynamic panel and local projection regressions suggest that better IT track records do not lead to superior growth and inflation rates in the short term.

Three Essays on the Macroeconomic Impact of Inflation Targeting

Three Essays on the Macroeconomic Impact of Inflation Targeting
Author: Najib Khan
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This doctoral thesis contains three essays on the macroeconomic impact of inflation targeting: (1) Inflation-targeting regime, as a framework for monetary policy conduct, has been adopted by central banks in thirty countries. Some of these countries enjoy high incomes while others have middle incomes. In contrast to the development-based classification -often applied in the literature, thus ignoring income disparity- this study employs income-based classification in constructing the data sample. The objective is to investigate, using a panel of middle-income countries, whether inflation targeting is a good remedy for high inflation. In addition to the commonly used covariates in the literature, this study also includes in its covariate matrix the worldwide governance indicators as proxy for institutional quality. The findings exhibit a significant reduction of inflation and its volatility among the inflation-targeting adopters compared to the non-adopting middle-income countries. The results are robust to the exclusion of high inflation episodes, and to using the alternative measures of inflation. The results are also robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests recommended for such empirical analysis. (2) Many economists acknowledge the paramount role that foreign investment plays in fostering economic development and growth via integrating economies around the globe. Studies have shown that foreign investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI) is attracted to countries that exhibit good governance, low uncertainty and a high degree of macroeconomic stability. The literature also argues that monetary policy under inflation targeting (IT) mitigates uncertainty, enhances governance and brings macroeconomic stability to the adopting countries. Hence, it would seem that the IT-adoption should enable the adopting countries attract the largest FDI inflows. To verify this conjecture, this study performs a comparison between the IT-adopting countries and the non-adopters in attracting FDI. Using a panel of OECD and middle-income countries, the empirical findings exhibit an interesting but contradicting pattern: when it comes to the OECD countries, the results show that the IT-adopters do better than the non-adopters in attracting the FDI inflows. For the middle-income countries, however, the IT-adoption appears to have the opposite effect: a significant reduction in the FDI inflows is witnessed among the IT-adopters compared to their counterparts. The results are robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests. (3) Inflation targeting, as a monetary-policy framework, is said to promote economic efficiency and growth. Yet, when evaluating the macroeconomic performance of inflation-targeting regimes, the existing literature only emphasizes the dynamics of inflation and the costs associated with taming inflation. There is hardly any assessment of the claim of efficiency and growth. To fill this gap, and to measure the causal impact of inflation-targeting adoption on economic efficiency, we compare the dynamics of output growth and long-term unemployment between countries that have adopted inflation targeting and the non-adopting countries. Our findings seem to refute the efficiency claim, and paint a bleak picture of inflation targeting: when compared to the countries that did not adopt inflation targeting, there is a significant reduction in the average growth rate among the inflation-targeting adopters by over 1⁄2 percentage point. Additionally, long-term unemployment significantly rises among the inflation-targeting countries by almost 2 percentage points as compared to the non-adopters. These results are robust to both the exclusion of the outlier observations and to the sensitivity tests recommended for such analysis.

Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication
Author: Ms.Katerina Smídková
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781451870923

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.

It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation

It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation
Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2023-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal shocks on inflation, using a large panel of 139 countries over the period 1970–2021. First, both headline and core measures of inflation increase in response to expansionary shifts in the fiscal policy stance. Second, we split the sample and observe an intriguing pattern that fiscal policy shocks are primarily significant in developing countries. Third, the inflationary impact of fiscal policy shocks is dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions, as well as monetary policy type, exchange rate regimes and fiscal rules, at the time of the shock. We confirm these results by using the narrative approach and forecast errors, as well as cyclically- adjusted data on government revenues and non-interest expenditures, to identify exogenous changes in fiscal policy. The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide greater resilience to inflationary shocks.

Republic of Armenia

Republic of Armenia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2023-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2002
Genre: Banks and Banking
ISBN: 9780894991967

Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Inflation-Forecast Targeting
Author: Kevin Clinton
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2015-06-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513557653

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.

Why Inflation Targeting?

Why Inflation Targeting?
Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2009-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145187233X

This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management
Author: Mr.Jack Diamond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 1999-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557757876

Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
Total Pages: 692
Release: 2011-05-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1616405414

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.