Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration

Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2012-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790828556

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.

Catching the Flu from the United States

Catching the Flu from the United States
Author: Filippo di Mauro
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2010-07-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230282075

Looking at historical cross-country interactions, this book examines the role of the US in the world economy. Illustrating that US shocks tend to have a global nature and that Monetary Union only partially shelters the Euro area from its external environment, the US should fully assume its responsibility, minimizing shock transmission.

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2014-04-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475523599

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484338499

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe

Business Cycles Syncronaziation in Europe
Author: Silvia Palasca
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2013-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656443033

Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.

Who Will be the Next in Line to Join the Euro Area?

Who Will be the Next in Line to Join the Euro Area?
Author: António Portugal Duarte
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

The aim of this paper is to investigate business cycle synchronization between seven candidate countries to the Euro Area (EA) - Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden - and the Euro Area (EA-12/EA-19), France and Germany. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to decompose the real Gross Domestic Product into trend and cyclical components for the period 1995Q1-2019Q4. The results point to the existence of a strong business cycle synchronization between Sweden and the Euro Area, Germany, and France. The second highest correlation was observed for the Czech Republic followed by Hungary, Poland and Croatia. In contrast, Bulgaria and Romania show the weakest business cycle synchronization with both the Euro Area and the core economies. We conclude that Sweden is the most prepared country to be the next passenger in the single currency train from the perspective of business cycle synchronization.

Will Business Cycles in the Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey of Empirical Research

Will Business Cycles in the Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey of Empirical Research
Author: Jakob de Haan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.