Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
Author: John Bryant
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 348
Release: 2018-06-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0429841337

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
Author: John Bryant
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2018-06-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0429841345

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Population Estimation and Projection

Population Estimation and Projection
Author: James Raymondo
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Total Pages: 222
Release: 1992-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0313367035

Raymondo provides a step-by-step guide through the complex issues associated with the methods of producing population estimates and projections. The author's approach reflects both his formal training in the study of population and his experience as an applied demographer, where he was frequently called upon to present technical population data to a lay audience. The result is a book firmly grounded in the methods and procedures of demography, but presented in a clear, concise manner for the everyday user of population estimates and projections. This book is a key resource for anyone dealing with population data. Raymondo begins by describing the general nature and differences of population estimates and projections. The author then takes the reader through several methodological issues that provide a foundation for the basic concepts of demographic analysis related to the production of population estimates and projections. Also provided is a helpful discussion on the intricacies of U.S. Bureau of the Census geographic concepts, and a general discussion on major sources of data for the estimation and projection process.

The Indirect Estimation of Migration

The Indirect Estimation of Migration
Author: Andrei Rogers
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 172
Release: 2010-07-03
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9048189152

This book presents the culmination of our collaborative research, going back over 15 years (Rogers & Little, 1994), and for one of us, even longer (Rogers, 1967, 1973). It addresses a dif?cult, yet necessary, area of demographic research: what to do in data situations characterized by irregular, inadequate, or missing data. A common solution within the demographic community has been what is generally referred to as “indirect estimation”. In our work the focus has been on the indirect estimation of migration, and our use of the term “indirect” follows the description given in the 1983 United Nations manual, which de?ned it as “techniques suited for analysis of incomplete or defective demographic data” (United Nations, 1983, p. 1). We wrote this book with a goal to make it accessible to a reader familiar with introductory statistical modeling, at the level of regression and categorical data an- ysis using log – linear models. It is primarily intended to serve as a reference work for demographers, sociologists, geographers, economists, and regional planners.

Subnational Population Estimates

Subnational Population Estimates
Author: David A. Swanson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 420
Release: 2012-05-23
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9048189543

Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.

Fundamentals of Demographic Analysis: Concepts, Measures and Methods

Fundamentals of Demographic Analysis: Concepts, Measures and Methods
Author: Gordon A. Carmichael
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 405
Release: 2015-11-04
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 331923255X

This book offers an ideal introduction to the analysis of demographic data. Inside, readers of all quantitative skill levels will find the information they need to develop a solid understanding of the methods used to study human populations and how they change over time due to such factors as birth, death, and migration. The comprehensive, systematic coverage defines basic concepts and introduces data sources; champions the use of Lexis diagrams as a device for visualizing demographic measures; highlights the importance of making comparisons (whether over time or between populations at a point in time) that control for differences in population composition; describes approaches to analyzing mortality, fertility, and migration; and details approaches to the important field of population projection. Throughout, the author makes the material accessible for readers through careful exposition, the use of examples, and other helpful features. This book's thorough coverage of basic concepts and principles lays a firm foundation for anyone contemplating undertaking demographic research, whether in a university setting or in a professional employment that takes on a demographic dimension requiring in-house training.

Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis

Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis
Author: S.S. Halli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 237
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1475790309

Although I feel honored to write a foreword for this important book, it is a task that I approach with some trepidation. The topics covered in the book summarize the current state of the art in technical demography. However, my knowledge and expertise with respect to technical demography are limited to the most fundamental and intermediate-level methods; hence, critical commentary on the contents of this volume is beyond my scope in this fore word. Since I have some understanding of the logic and substantive aspects of the methods rather than the complicated mathematics used in describing them, my comments will necessarily be restricted to the book's general or ganization and content. To date, most texts published on technical demography have been limited to traditional demographic methods: sources and limitations of data, life table construction and applications, standardization techniques, various methods for preparing population estimates and forecasts, etc. However, population specialists have in recent years been developing and successfully applying a variety of sophisticated techniques not covered in the more standard intro ductory texts. In addition, many traditional methods that are unique to the demographic discipline have been improved and extended.