Default And The Maturity Structure In Sovereign Bonds
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Author | : Mr.Udaibir S. Das |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 128 |
Release | : 2012-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475505531 |
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Author | : Sophia Chen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 77 |
Release | : 2019-02-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484397630 |
The maturity structure of debt can have financial and real consequences. Short-term debt exposes borrowers to rollover risk (where the terms of financing are renegotiated to the detriment of the borrower) and is associated with financial crises. Moreover, debt maturity can have an impact on the ability of firms to undertake long-term productive investments and, as a result, affect economic activity. The aim of this paper is to examine the evolution and determinants of debt maturity and to characterize differences across countries.
Author | : Thordur Jonasson |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 133 |
Release | : 2018-04-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484350545 |
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Author | : Nicola Gennaioli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2014-07-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498391990 |
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Author | : Vivian Z. Yue |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 32 |
Release | : 2011-07-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1462330452 |
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Author | : Mr.Francisco Roch |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2016-09-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475533241 |
Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
Author | : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2018-09-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484359623 |
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Author | : David Wessel |
Publisher | : Brookings Institution Press |
Total Pages | : 178 |
Release | : 2015-11-24 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0815727062 |
The underexamined art and science of managing the federal government's huge debt. Everyone talks about the size of the U.S. national debt, now at $13 trillion and climbing, but few talk about how the U.S. Treasury does the borrowing—even though it is one of the world's largest borrowers. Everyone from bond traders to the home-buying public is affected by the Treasury's decisions about whether to borrow short or long term and what types of bonds to sell to investors. What is the best way for the Treasury to finance the government's huge debt? Harvard's Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers argue that the Treasury could save taxpayers money and help the economy by borrowing more short term and less long term. They also argue that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake in recent years by rowing in opposite directions: while the Fed was buying long-term bonds to push investors into other assets, the Treasury was doing the opposite—selling investors more long-term bonds. This book includes responses from a variety of public and private sector experts on how the Treasury does its borrowing, some of whom have criticized the way the Treasury has been managing its borrowing.
Author | : Mr.Mauro Mecagni |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 37 |
Release | : 2014-06-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475523106 |
This African Department Paper examines the rise in international sovereign bonds issued by African frontier economies and recommends policies for potential first-time issuers.
Author | : Iva Petrova |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2010-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455252859 |
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.