Debt Sustainability In Low Income Countries
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Author | : Yasemin Bal Gunduz |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2017-05-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475599773 |
This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 84 |
Release | : 2004-03-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498330630 |
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 58 |
Release | : 2004-10-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498330088 |
This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 41 |
Release | : 2010-04-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498337562 |
We cannot allow the return of economic stability to signify a return to "business as usual" for the IMF. The crisis exposed huge cracks in the international financial architecture of which the Fund is a key part. We have an historic responsibility to fix them. I urge all of us to recommit to seeing our collective goals to the finish line before reform fatigue sets in.
Author | : Joachim Müller |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 64 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9783937235035 |
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 111 |
Release | : 2017-02-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498346359 |
The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries (LIC DSF) has been the cornerstone of assessments of risks to debt sustainability in LICs. The framework classifies countries based on their assessed debt-carrying capacity, estimates threshold levels for selected debt burden indicators, evaluates baseline projections and stress test scenarios relative to these thresholds, and then combines indicative rules and staff judgment to assign risk ratings of external debt distress. The framework has demonstrated its operational value since the last review was conducted in 2012, but there are areas where new features can be introduced to enhance its performance in assessing risks. Against the backdrop of the evolving nature of risks facing LICs, both staff analysis and stakeholder feedback suggest gaps in the framework to be addressed. Complexity and lack of transparency have also been highlighted as causes for concern. This paper proposes a set of reforms to enhance the value of the LIC DSF for all users. In developing these reforms, staff has been guided by two over-arching principles: a) the core architecture of the DSF—model-based results complemented by judgment—remains appropriate; and b) reforms should ensure that the DSF maintains an appropriate balance by providing countries with early warnings of potential debt distress without unnecessarily constraining their borrowing for development.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2003-05-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498329462 |
Author | : Mr.Henry Mooney |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2017-10-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484326156 |
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2009-05-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498335713 |
The Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is a standardized framework for analyzing debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs). It aims to help countries monitor their debt burden and take early preventive action, to provide guidance to creditors in ensuring their lending decisions are consistent with countries’ development goals, and to improve the Bank and Fund’s assessments and policy advice. The DSF was last reviewed in 2006, and a reconsideration of some aspects of the framework is timely.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2018-02-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498307264 |
Low-income countries (LICs) face significant challenges in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while at the same time ensuring that their external debt remains sustainable. In April 2005, the Executive Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) approved the introduction of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), a tool developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff to conduct public and external debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. The DSF has since been serving to help guide the borrowing decisions of LICs, provide guidance for creditors’ lending and grant allocation decisions, and improve World Bank and IMF assessments and policy advice. The latest review of the framework was approved by the Executive Boards in September 2017. This introduced reforms to ensure that the DSF remains appropriate for the rapidly changing financing landscape facing LICs and to further improve insights into debt vulnerabilities. This note provides operational and technical guidance on the implementation of the reformed framework.