Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2018-09-20
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1108563309

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

The Myth of Statistical Inference

The Myth of Statistical Inference
Author: Michael C. Acree
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 457
Release: 2021-07-05
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 3030732576

This book proposes and explores the idea that the forced union of the aleatory and epistemic aspects of probability is a sterile hybrid, inspired and nourished for 300 years by a false hope of formalizing inductive reasoning, making uncertainty the object of precise calculation. Because this is not really a possible goal, statistical inference is not, cannot be, doing for us today what we imagine it is doing for us. It is for these reasons that statistical inference can be characterized as a myth. The book is aimed primarily at social scientists, for whom statistics and statistical inference are a common concern and frustration. Because the historical development given here is not merely anecdotal, but makes clear the guiding ideas and ambitions that motivated the formulation of particular methods, this book offers an understanding of statistical inference which has not hitherto been available. It will also serve as a supplement to the standard statistics texts. Finally, general readers will find here an interesting study with implications far beyond statistics. The development of statistical inference, to its present position of prominence in the social sciences, epitomizes a number of trends in Western intellectual history of the last three centuries, and the 11th chapter, considering the function of statistical inference in light of our needs for structure, rules, authority, and consensus in general, develops some provocative parallels, especially between epistemology and politics.

Computer Age Statistical Inference

Computer Age Statistical Inference
Author: Bradley Efron
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 496
Release: 2016-07-21
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1108107958

The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

All of Statistics

All of Statistics
Author: Larry Wasserman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 446
Release: 2013-12-11
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0387217363

Taken literally, the title "All of Statistics" is an exaggeration. But in spirit, the title is apt, as the book does cover a much broader range of topics than a typical introductory book on mathematical statistics. This book is for people who want to learn probability and statistics quickly. It is suitable for graduate or advanced undergraduate students in computer science, mathematics, statistics, and related disciplines. The book includes modern topics like non-parametric curve estimation, bootstrapping, and classification, topics that are usually relegated to follow-up courses. The reader is presumed to know calculus and a little linear algebra. No previous knowledge of probability and statistics is required. Statistics, data mining, and machine learning are all concerned with collecting and analysing data.

Statistical Inference

Statistical Inference
Author: George Casella
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 1746
Release: 2024-05-23
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1040024025

This classic textbook builds theoretical statistics from the first principles of probability theory. Starting from the basics of probability, the authors develop the theory of statistical inference using techniques, definitions, and concepts that are statistical and natural extensions, and consequences, of previous concepts. It covers all topics from a standard inference course including: distributions, random variables, data reduction, point estimation, hypothesis testing, and interval estimation. Features The classic graduate-level textbook on statistical inference Develops elements of statistical theory from first principles of probability Written in a lucid style accessible to anyone with some background in calculus Covers all key topics of a standard course in inference Hundreds of examples throughout to aid understanding Each chapter includes an extensive set of graduated exercises Statistical Inference, Second Edition is primarily aimed at graduate students of statistics, but can be used by advanced undergraduate students majoring in statistics who have a solid mathematics background. It also stresses the more practical uses of statistical theory, being more concerned with understanding basic statistical concepts and deriving reasonable statistical procedures, while less focused on formal optimality considerations. This is a reprint of the second edition originally published by Cengage Learning, Inc. in 2001.

Probability and Statistical Inference

Probability and Statistical Inference
Author: Robert Bartoszynski
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 672
Release: 2007-11-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9780470191583

Now updated in a valuable new edition—this user-friendly book focuses on understanding the "why" of mathematical statistics Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition introduces key probability and statis-tical concepts through non-trivial, real-world examples and promotes the developmentof intuition rather than simple application. With its coverage of the recent advancements in computer-intensive methods, this update successfully provides the comp-rehensive tools needed to develop a broad understanding of the theory of statisticsand its probabilistic foundations. This outstanding new edition continues to encouragereaders to recognize and fully understand the why, not just the how, behind the concepts,theorems, and methods of statistics. Clear explanations are presented and appliedto various examples that help to impart a deeper understanding of theorems and methods—from fundamental statistical concepts to computational details. Additional features of this Second Edition include: A new chapter on random samples Coverage of computer-intensive techniques in statistical inference featuring Monte Carlo and resampling methods, such as bootstrap and permutation tests, bootstrap confidence intervals with supporting R codes, and additional examples available via the book's FTP site Treatment of survival and hazard function, methods of obtaining estimators, and Bayes estimating Real-world examples that illuminate presented concepts Exercises at the end of each section Providing a straightforward, contemporary approach to modern-day statistical applications, Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition is an ideal text for advanced undergraduate- and graduate-level courses in probability and statistical inference. It also serves as a valuable reference for practitioners in any discipline who wish to gain further insight into the latest statistical tools.

Philosophical Problems of Statistical Inference

Philosophical Problems of Statistical Inference
Author: T. Seidenfeld
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 274
Release: 1979-08-31
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9789027709653

Probability and inverse inference; Neyman-Pearson theory; Fisherian significance testing; The fiducial argument: one parameter; The fiducial argument: several parameters; Ian hacking's theory; Henry Kyburg's theory; Relevance and experimental design.

Statistical Models and Causal Inference

Statistical Models and Causal Inference
Author: David A. Freedman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 416
Release: 2010
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0521195004

David A. Freedman presents a definitive synthesis of his approach to statistical modeling and causal inference in the social sciences.

Fundamental Statistical Inference

Fundamental Statistical Inference
Author: Marc S. Paolella
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 584
Release: 2018-06-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119417872

A hands-on approach to statistical inference that addresses the latest developments in this ever-growing field This clear and accessible book for beginning graduate students offers a practical and detailed approach to the field of statistical inference, providing complete derivations of results, discussions, and MATLAB programs for computation. It emphasizes details of the relevance of the material, intuition, and discussions with a view towards very modern statistical inference. In addition to classic subjects associated with mathematical statistics, topics include an intuitive presentation of the (single and double) bootstrap for confidence interval calculations, shrinkage estimation, tail (maximal moment) estimation, and a variety of methods of point estimation besides maximum likelihood, including use of characteristic functions, and indirect inference. Practical examples of all methods are given. Estimation issues associated with the discrete mixtures of normal distribution, and their solutions, are developed in detail. Much emphasis throughout is on non-Gaussian distributions, including details on working with the stable Paretian distribution and fast calculation of the noncentral Student's t. An entire chapter is dedicated to optimization, including development of Hessian-based methods, as well as heuristic/genetic algorithms that do not require continuity, with MATLAB codes provided. The book includes both theory and nontechnical discussions, along with a substantial reference to the literature, with an emphasis on alternative, more modern approaches. The recent literature on the misuse of hypothesis testing and p-values for model selection is discussed, and emphasis is given to alternative model selection methods, though hypothesis testing of distributional assumptions is covered in detail, notably for the normal distribution. Presented in three parts—Essential Concepts in Statistics; Further Fundamental Concepts in Statistics; and Additional Topics—Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach offers comprehensive chapters on: Introducing Point and Interval Estimation; Goodness of Fit and Hypothesis Testing; Likelihood; Numerical Optimization; Methods of Point Estimation; Q-Q Plots and Distribution Testing; Unbiased Point Estimation and Bias Reduction; Analytic Interval Estimation; Inference in a Heavy-Tailed Context; The Method of Indirect Inference; and, as an appendix, A Review of Fundamental Concepts in Probability Theory, the latter to keep the book self-contained, and giving material on some advanced subjects such as saddlepoint approximations, expected shortfall in finance, calculation with the stable Paretian distribution, and convergence theorems and proofs.