Cross Asset Return Predictability
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Author | : Helen Lu |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 61 |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Equity returns predict carry trade profits from shorting low interest rate currencies. Commodity price changes predict profits from longing high interest rate currencies. The gradual information diffusion hypothesis (Hong & Stein, 1999; Hong, Torous, & Valkanov, 2007) provides a ready explanation for these predictability results. These results cannot be explained by time-varying risk premia as stock returns and commodity price changes significantly predict negative carry trade profits. The predictability is one-directional, from commodities to high interest rate currencies, from commodities to stocks and from stocks to low interest rate currencies.
Author | : Dong Wang |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 61 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Anton Hasselgren |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2019 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
The gradual information diffusion hypothesis (GIDH) suggests that information flows slowly across investors and asset markets and thus generates return predictability. We examine cross-asset return predictability of FX market strategies. Apply the GIDH to empirically investigate the role of speculator activity in cross-asset return predictability of FX market strategies. We hypothesize that when speculators in the FX market are active, the speed of information diffusion into the market increases which, invariably, weaken predictability between the equity and commodity market and FX strategies. Our reported results, which provide strong support for this view, show that when speculators are active in the FX market, predictability from the equity market dissipates and predictability from the commodity market diminishes. Our findings suggest that speculators play a vital role in enhancing informational efficiency in the FX market.
Author | : Walter N. Torous |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. Using thirty-four industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, we establish several key results. A number of industries such as retail, services, commercial real estate, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to two months. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets.
Author | : Qingqing Zhao |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Emmanuel Jurczenko |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 460 |
Release | : 2020-10-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1786305445 |
This new edited volume consists of a collection of original articles written by leading financial economists and industry experts in the area of machine learning for asset management. The chapters introduce the reader to some of the latest research developments in the area of equity, multi-asset and factor investing. Each chapter deals with new methods for return and risk forecasting, stock selection, portfolio construction, performance attribution and transaction costs modeling. This volume will be of great help to portfolio managers, asset owners and consultants, as well as academics and students who want to improve their knowledge of machine learning in asset management.
Author | : Wayne Ferson |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 497 |
Release | : 2019-03-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0262039370 |
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author | : Robert A. Meyers |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 919 |
Release | : 2010-11-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1441977007 |
Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Author | : Christian Funke |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2010 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Cohen and Frazzini (2008) examine economically linked firms and document widespread cross-asset return predictability at monthly horizons, specifically from customers to their suppliers. They argue that limited investor attention is responsible for their results. We extend this investigation to the extremes of the return distribution. We examine return predictability for economically linked firms at the daily level by analyzing supplier stock price reaction after large customer price changes. In contrast to Cohen and Frazzini (2008), we conclude that investor attention is only lsquo;partially limited' when examining the large, attention-grabbing customer price changes investigated in this paper: return predictability mainly occurs in the first week after the event, does not apply to the largest supplier stocks, and has disappeared, at least for negative events, in the more recent past.
Author | : Stephen Satchell |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 299 |
Release | : 2011-04-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0080550673 |
Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques.*Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives