Covid Induced Economic Uncertainty
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Author | : Cem Çakmaklı |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
Author | : Pragyan Deb |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2020-08-07 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781513550251 |
Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.
Author | : Sabri Boubaker |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 857 |
Release | : 2022-05-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1800610793 |
The COVID-19 global health pandemic, which started in late December 2019, forced many countries to adopt unusual measures such as social distancing and strict lockdowns. It changed many of our certainties and practices, including the foundations of the market-led version of capitalism, by bringing social and health considerations back to the forefront of firms' considerations, investors' strategies and governments' priorities. Under the effects of this unprecedented crisis, all sectors of finance and real economy have been seriously affected.Health uncertainties and their increasing consequences for human life and activities require stronger and faster actions to shape pathways towards sustainability and better resilience. The COVID-19 health crisis is a visible part of a greater iceberg: the World Health Organization has tracked, over recent years, a large number of epidemic events around the world, suggesting that many other similar diseases could appear and evolve in the future from epidemic to pandemic in a globalized world.Financial Transformations Beyond the COVID-19 Health Crisis was specifically designed to provide the readers with new results, recent findings and future outlook on the impacts of COVID-19 on financial markets, firm behaviors, and finance and investment strategies. It favors multidimensional perspectives and brings together conceptual, empirical and policy-oriented chapters, using quantitative and qualitative methods alike. This is a timely and comprehensive collection of theoretical, empirical and policy contributions from renowned scholars around the world, and provides the thoughts and insights required to rethink the financial sector in the event of new shocks of the same nature.
Author | : Ettore Bolisani |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 214 |
Release | : 2017-07-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319606573 |
This book is intended to spark a discourse on, and contribute to finding a clear consensus in, the debate between conceptualizing a knowledge strategy and planning a knowledge strategy. It explores the complex relationship between the notions of knowledge and strategy in the business context, one that is of practical importance to companies. After reviewing the extant literature, the book shows how the concept of knowledge strategies can be seen as a new perspective for exploring business strategies. It proposes a new approach that clarifies how planned and emergent knowledge strategies allow companies to make projections into the uncertain and unpredictable future that dominates today’s economy.
Author | : Ms.Elif C Arbatli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2017-05-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484302362 |
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Author | : Mr. Philip Barrett |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2021-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513587900 |
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Author | : Glenn W. Muschert |
Publisher | : Policy Press |
Total Pages | : 171 |
Release | : 2020-10-21 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1447360621 |
The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching political and social consequences across the globe. Published in collaboration with the Society for the Study of Social Problems (SSSP), this book addresses the greatest social challenges facing the world as a result of the pandemic. The authors propose public policy solutions to help refugees, migrant workers, victims of human trafficking, indigenous populations and the invisible poor of the Global South.
Author | : Robert K. Dixit |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 484 |
Release | : 2012-07-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1400830176 |
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Author | : Taha Chaiechi |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 699 |
Release | : 2022-01-12 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9811652600 |
This edited volume presents the conference papers from the 1st International Conference on Business, Economics, Management, and Sustainability (BEMAS), organized by the Centre for International Trade and Business in Asia (CITBA) at James Cook University. This book argues that the orthodox methods of external risks, climate change adaptation plans, and sustainable economic growth in cities are no longer adequate. These methods, so far, have not only ignored the ongoing structural changes associated with economic development but also failed to account for evolving industries’ composition and the emergence of new comparative advantages and skills. Specifically, this book looks at the vulnerable communities and exposed areas, particularly in urban areas, that tend to experience higher susceptibility to external risks (such as climate change, natural disasters, and public health emergencies) have been largely ignored in incremental adaptation plans. Vulnerable communities and areas not only require different adaptive responses to climate risk but also possess unlocked adaptive capacity that can motivate different patterns of sustainable development to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda. It is essential, therefore, to view transformative growth and fundamental reorientation of economic resources as integral parts of the solution. Social disorganisation and vulnerability are other undesired outcomes of the unpredictable and widespread external economic shocks. This is due to a sudden and tough competition between members of society to acquire precious resources, most of which may be depleted during unprecedented events such as natural disasters or pandemics resulting in an even more chaotic and disorganised conditions.
Author | : Robert C. Feenstra |
Publisher | : Macmillan |
Total Pages | : 984 |
Release | : 2011-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1429241039 |
Combining classic international economics with straight-from-the- headlines immediacy, Feenstra and Taylor’s text seamlessly integrates the subject’s established core content with topic areas and ideas that have emerged from recent empirical studies. A MODERN APPROACH FOR THE 21ST CENTURY International economics texts traditionally place greater emphasis on theory and a strong focus on the advanced countries. Feenstra/Taylor links theory to empirical evidence throughout the book, and incorporates coverage of emerging markets and developing economies (India, China, SE Asia) to reflect the evolving realities of the global economy. The new edition has been extensively revised and updated, especially in light of the ongoing world financial crisis. NOTE: Feenstra/Taylor, International Economics, Second Edition, is available in four versions: International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-3118-1 International Trade, 2e: 1-4292-4104-7 International Macroeconomics, 2e: 1-4292-4103-9 Essentials of International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-7710-5