Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets

Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets
Author: Mr.Joshua Aizenman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 1997-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145193596X

This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Higher volatility of producers’ productivity shocks increases both domestic and foreign financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. Welfare effects are nonlinearly related to the degree of international financial integration.

Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets

Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets
Author: Pierre-Richard Agenor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Higher volatility of producers` productivity shocks increases both domestic and foreign financial spreads and the producers` cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. Welfare effects are nonlinearly related to the degree of international financial integration.

Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets

Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 1997
Genre: Bank deposits
ISBN:

This paper interprets contagion effects as a perceived increase (triggered by events occurring elsewhere) in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks which possess comparative advantage in monitoring the behavior of domestic agents. Financial intermediation spreads are shown to be determined by a markup that compensates for the expected cost of contract enforcement and state verification and for the expected revenue lost in adverse states of nature. Higher volatility of producers' productivity shocks increases both financial spreads and the producers' cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. The welfare effects of volatility are non-linear. Higher volatility does not impose any welfare cost for countries characterized by relatively low volatility and efficient financial intermediation. The adverse welfare effects are large (small) for countries that are at the threshold of full integration with international capital markets (close to financial autarky), that is, countries characterized by a relatively low (high) probability of default.

IMF Staff papers

IMF Staff papers
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 203
Release: 1998-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455277444

This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.

Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion

Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion
Author: Mr.Garry J. Schinasi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 1999-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451855796

Models of “contagion” rely on market imperfections to explain why adverse shocks in one asset market might be associated with asset sales in many unrelated markets. This paper demonstrates that contagion can be explained with basic portfolio theory without recourse to market imperfections. It also demonstrates that “Value-at-Risk” portfolio management rules do not have significantly different consequences for portfolio rebalancing and contagion than other rules. The paper’s main conclusion is that portfolio diversification and leverage may be sufficient to explain why investors would find it optimal to sell many higher-risk assets when a shock to one asset occurs.

International Financial Contagion

International Financial Contagion
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 461
Release: 2013-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475733143

No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.

Contagion, Bank Lending Spreads, and Output Fluctuations

Contagion, Bank Lending Spreads, and Output Fluctuations
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1999
Genre: Argentina
ISBN:

A positive historical shock to external spreads can lead to an increase in domestic spreads and a reduction in the cyclical component of output. Shocks to external spreads immediately after the Mexican peso crisis had a sizable effect on movements in output and domestic interest rate spreads in Argentina.

International Financial Architecture

International Financial Architecture
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2003
Genre: International finance
ISBN:

Annotation This title can be previewed in Google Books - http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9789056292669.

Contagion

Contagion
Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 1998-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451856229

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations assess its relevance to the coincidence of emerging market crises in 1994–95 and in 1997.