The Morning After

The Morning After
Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1999-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451842988

This paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to investigate four explanations of the extended slump in Japanese economic activity during the 1990s: the absence of bold and consistent fiscal stimulus; limited room for expansionary monetary policy because of a liquidity trap; asset price deflation reflecting the long-term problems caused by overinvestment, inadequate returns on saving, and debt overhang; and disruption of financial intermediation. The results indicate that disruption in financial intermediation, largely operating through the impact of changes in domestic asset prices on bank lending, has been the principal case of the slump.

The Japanese Tax System

The Japanese Tax System
Author: Hiromitsu Ishi
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 464
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Introduction to the Japanese tax system. Covers individual income tax, corporate income tax, inheritance and gift taxes, local taxes, consumption tax and land tax.

Japan's Stagnant Nineties

Japan's Stagnant Nineties
Author: Christel Rendu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 1999-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451893620

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset prices, negative shocks to private consumption were relatively small. A surprising conclusion is that trends in public consumption had a dampening impact on activity in the 1990s. The VAR estimations do not support the counterfactual conjecture that activity in Japan would have been significantly weaker in the absence of the expansionary shift in fiscal policy.

Public Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus

Public Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus
Author: Ms.Anita Tuladhar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2010-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455200697

How effective was public investment in stimulating the Japanese economy during the economic stagnation of the 1990s? Using a dataset of regional public investment spending, we find that investment multipliers were higher than for public consumption, although they were relatively low and declining over time. The paper also finds that the effectiveness of economic infrastructure investment, implemented mainly by the central government, is lower than that of social investment mostly undertaken by local governments. These results suggest that while public investment may yield higher output effects than other spending, its effectiveness depends upon its composition, the level of government implementation, and supply side factors.

Japan

Japan
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 188
Release: 1998-11-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451820445

This Selected Issues paper analyzes macroeconomic developments and prospects for Japan during the 1990s. Following a surge in activity during 1996 and early 1997, the economy fell into recession in the second quarter of 1997. Real GDP fell by 33⁄4 percent during the four quarters ended March 1998; the unemployment rate reached historical highs; and deflationary pressures reemerged. The downturn was largely unexpected, and most forecasters had projected growth of about 2 percent in 1997. This paper also examines fiscal policy issues for Japan.

Japan

Japan
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 114
Release: 1999-10-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper provides a brief overview of the causes of the poor economic performance of Japan in the 1990s, and a more detailed analysis of developments in the real sector during 1999. The paper highlights that the collapse of the asset price bubble in 1990–91 provided the trigger for the downturn in 1992, and compounded the economic problems thereafter through its effects on the banking system. This paper also analyzes the fiscal policy developments and the monetary developments in Japan.

Essays in Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Essays in Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Author: Geeta Garg
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre: Budget
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of three essays concerning the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty about future path of fiscal and monetary policy.The first chapter provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of anticipated tax changes in Japan using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework. For this paper, I utilize a new dataset that documents all the legislated federal and local government taxes in Japan which have been classified as exogenous based on the narrative evidence. The time period between the announcement and the implementation dates allows me to capture the anticipation effects of tax changes. The constructed series of (exogenous) tax shocks is incorporated directly in a VAR. I find that the anticipation effects of tax policy are important and have effects that are different from the unanticipated changes in tax policy. An unanticipated tax cut is expansionary and leads to an increase in output, investment and consumption. An anticipated tax cut however generates a slowdown in the quarters before its implementation and leads to a decline in all three variables. Once the anticipated tax cut is implemented, consumption recovers but investment and output continue to stay below their long-run trend. Lastly, I show that tax shocks are an important driver of certain business cycle episodes in Japan.The second paper studies the effects of fiscal uncertainty in Japan that arises due to the repeated failure of fiscal authorities in achieving the announced promises of fiscal consolidation in the future. In a New-Keynesian DSGE model with rational expectations, I examine the extent to which the uncertainty due to these repeated promises explain the slowdown experienced by the Japanese economy. I assume Markov-switching tax rules such that the response of taxes to debt vary with the fiscal stance of the government. I document that these promises generate time-variation in both the expected value and volatility of tax rates. Even in the regime in which taxes do not stabilize debt, the rising level of debt create expectations of higher future taxes causing economic contraction in the current period. These expectations lead to a decline in consumption, investment, labor hours, output and an increase in the level of debt which is also evident in the Japanese data since the 1990s.The third chapter examines the effects of uncertainty about the future path of monetary policy which is embedded in the news about who will be the future chairman of the Federal Reserve. To the extent the appointments of the Federal Reserve chairmen convey new information about future monetary policy, the financial markets respond to them as a result of revision in their expectations of the future path of interest rates or inflation. For this purpose, I construct a new dataset based on the daily counts of news articles that discuss these appointments. The underlying assumption is that the number of such news articles published on any day roughly measures the \ew information" about the direction of monetary policy. I find that the financial markets reacted adversely (Yen appreciated against USD, bond yields increased and stock returns slightly declined) in response to Volcker's departure or Greenspan's (first) appointment. However there was a muted response of financial markets to the appointments/departures that occurred afterwards.

Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession

Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession
Author: Eskander Alvi
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
Total Pages: 152
Release: 2017-11-20
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0880996366

This book presents a notable group of macroeconomists who describe the unprecedented events and often extraordinary policies put in place to limit the economic damage suffered during the Great Recession and then to put the economy back on track. Contributers include Barry Eichengreen; Gary Burtless; Donald Kohn; Laurence Ball, J. Bradford DeLong, and Lawrence H. Summers; and Kathryn M.E. Dominguez.