Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations

Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations
Author: Headey, Derek D.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2020-11-10
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.

Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020

Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020
Author: Lambrecht, Isabel
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2020-09-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.

Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19

Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19
Author: Goeb, Joseph
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2021-05-27
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar’s urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar’s food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer’s diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study.

Transport and Climate Change

Transport and Climate Change
Author: Tim Ryley
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 409
Release: 2012-07-17
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1780524412

This topical volume covers the intersection between transport and climate change, with papers from the 'Transport & Climate Change' session of the RGS-IBG conference in London, September 2010. It considers the role of transport modes at varying spatial dimensions and a range of perspectives on the relationship between transport and climate change.

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar
Author: Headey, Derek D.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2020-10-07
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.

Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia

Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia
Author: Paul Dorosh
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press
Total Pages: 377
Release: 2013-02-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0812208617

The perception of Ethiopia projected in the media is often one of chronic poverty and hunger, but this bleak assessment does not accurately reflect most of the country today. Ethiopia encompasses a wide variety of agroecologies and peoples. Its agriculture sector, economy, and food security status are equally complex. In fact, since 2001 the per capita income in certain rural areas has risen by more than 50 percent, and crop yields and availability have also increased. Higher investments in roads and mobile phone technology have led to improved infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets, commodities, services, and information. In Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges, Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid, along with other experts, tell the story of Ethiopia's political, economic, and agricultural transformation. The book is designed to provide empirical evidence to shed light on the complexities of agricultural and food policy in today's Ethiopia, highlight major policies and interventions of the past decade, and provide insights into building resilience to natural disasters and food crises. It examines the key issues, constraints, and opportunities that are likely to shape a food-secure future in Ethiopia, focusing on land quality, crop production, adoption of high-quality seed and fertilizer, and household income. Students, researchers, policy analysts, and decisionmakers will find this book a useful overview of Ethiopia's political, economic, and agricultural transformation as well as a resource for major food policy issues in Ethiopia. Contributors: Dawit Alemu, Guush Berhane, Jordan Chamberlin, Sarah Coll-Black, Paul Dorosh, Berhanu Gebremedhin, Sinafikeh Asrat Gemessa, Daniel O. Gilligan, John Graham, Kibrom Tafere Hirfrfot, John Hoddinott, Adam Kennedy, Neha Kumar, Mehrab Malek, Linden McBride, Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, Asfaw Negassa, Shahidur Rashid, Emily Schmidt, David Spielman, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Seneshaw Tamiru, James Thurlow, William Wiseman.

Myanmar’s Education Reforms

Myanmar’s Education Reforms
Author: Marie Lall
Publisher: UCL Press
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2020-11-02
Genre: Education
ISBN: 1787353699

This book reviews the state of education in Myanmar over the past decade and a half as the country is undergoing profound albeit incomplete transformation. Set within the context of Myanmar’s peace process and the wider reforms since 2012, Marie Lall’s analysis of education policy and practice serves as a case study on how the reform programme has evolved. Drawing on over 15 years of field research carried out across Myanmar, the book offers a cohesive inquiry into government and non-government education sectors, the reform process, and how the transition has played out across schools, universities and wider society. It casts scrutiny on changes in basic education, the alternative monastic education, higher education and teacher education, and engages with issues of ethnic education and the debate on the role of language and the local curriculum as part of the peace process. In so doing, it gives voice to those most affected by the changing landscape of Myanmar’s education and wider reform process: the students and parents of all ethnic backgrounds, teachers, teacher trainees and university staff that are rarely heard.

Cybernetics, Cognition and Machine Learning Applications

Cybernetics, Cognition and Machine Learning Applications
Author: Vinit Kumar Gunjan
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 439
Release: 2021-03-30
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9813366915

This book includes the original, peer reviewed research articles from the 2nd International Conference on Cybernetics, Cognition and Machine Learning Applications (ICCCMLA 2020), held in August, 2020 at Goa, India. It covers the latest research trends or developments in areas of data science, artificial intelligence, neural networks, cognitive science and machine learning applications, cyber physical systems and cybernetics.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach
Author: Diao, Xinshen
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2020-08-03
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.