Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 222
Release: 2024-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 100384670X

Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2011-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386899

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Agricultural Prices and Commodity Market Analysis

Agricultural Prices and Commodity Market Analysis
Author: John N. Ferris
Publisher: MSU Press
Total Pages: 361
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780870137518

Agricultural Prices and Commodity MarketAnalysis discusses the application of economictheory to agriculture and the foodindustry, using quantitative tools. The blendof theory and application is unique in detailinghow demand and supply can be measuredand how econometric simulationmodels can be constructed and evaluated.This revised edition focuses on forecastingand generating long-term projections as wellas discussing the relatively unexplored areaof stochastic modeling, which is critical inhandling crop yield variability. Other topicscovered include agricultural policy analysisand futures/options markets. The role oftime series models in improving structuralequations and forecasting techniques providesa capstone.

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2017-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1351917080

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis

International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis
Author: O. Güvenen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 940091167X

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com modity markets.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Commodity Price Dynamics
Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 239
Release: 2011-10-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139501976

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Multivariate Tests for Time Series Models

Multivariate Tests for Time Series Models
Author: Jeff B. Cromwell
Publisher: SAGE
Total Pages: 116
Release: 1994
Genre: Social sciences
ISBN: 9780803954403

Which time series test should researchers choose to best describe the interactions among a set of time series variables? Providing guidelines for identifying the appropriate multivariate time series model to use, this book explores the nature and application of these increasingly complex tests.

Commodity Modeling and Pricing

Commodity Modeling and Pricing
Author: Peter V. Schaeffer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 345
Release: 2008-10-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 047031723X

Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.

International Commodity Policy

International Commodity Policy
Author: Roland Herrmann
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 271
Release: 2023-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000869954

Originally published in 1993, this book provides an excellent analysis of commodity policies internationally during the late 20th Century. It discusses 2 major methods of market regulation: price stabilization – based on buffer stocks or export quotas – and compensatory finance. The authors analyse whether major commodity policies have reached their primary objectives and to what extent they have had economic side effects. Discussion of more general policy issues centres around three international commodity agreements for coffee, rubber and cocoa. The authors also look at the policies adopted by individual nations to regulate commodity trading and assess to what extent they have reached their objectives. A discussion of the intervention of the International Monetary Fund and STABEX assesses the degree of stability they can provide in a highly volatile and variable environment. Nearly 30 years later, volatile world commodity markets are still a major issue in the policy dialogue. Although topics, policy instruments and concepts have changed, this book remains a fundamental contribution to the study of international commodity policy. It will be of great interest to students of commodity policy and economic development and economists in national and international organizations dealing with market stabilization.