Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector

Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector
Author: Mr. Salih Fendoglu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2021-05-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513578286

This note analyzes the implications of changes in commercial real estate (CRE) prices for the stability of the US banking sector. Using detailed bank-level and CRE price data for US metropolitan statistical areas, the analysis shows that, following a decline in CRE prices, banks with greater exposures to CRE loans perform worse than their counterparts, experiencing higher non-performing CRE loans, lower revenues, and lower capital. These effects are particularly pronounced if the drop in CRE prices turns out to be persistent because of possible structural shifts in CRE demand—for example, because of an increased trend toward e-commerce and teleworking—even after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is over. The impact of a decline in CRE prices is especially true for small and community banks, which tend to have the highest CRE loan exposures. While the US banking sector has remained resilient during the pandemic crisis due to strong capital buffers and massive policy support, these findings suggest that continued vigilance is warranted with regard to potential downside risks to CRE prices amidst ongoing structural shifts in the sector.

Bank Competition and Financial Stability

Bank Competition and Financial Stability
Author: Mr.Gianni De Nicolo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2011-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463927290

We study versions of a general equilibrium banking model with moral hazard under either constant or increasing returns to scale of the intermediation technology used by banks to screen and/or monitor borrowers. If the intermediation technology exhibits increasing returns to scale, or it is relatively efficient, then perfect competition is optimal and supports the lowest feasible level of bank risk. Conversely, if the intermediation technology exhibits constant returns to scale, or is relatively inefficient, then imperfect competition and intermediate levels of bank risks are optimal. These results are empirically relevant and carry significant implications for financial policy.

Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis

Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis
Author: Mr.Luc Laeven
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2009-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451873549

This paper shows that banks use accounting discretion to overstate the value of distressed assets. Banks' balance sheets overvalue real estate-related assets compared to the market value of these assets, especially during the U.S. mortgage crisis. Share prices of banks with large exposure to mortgage-backed securities also react favorably to recent changes in accounting rules that relax fair-value accounting, and these banks provision less for bad loans. Furthermore, distressed banks use discretion in the classification of mortgage-backed securities to inflate their books. Our results indicate that banks' balance sheets offer a distorted view of the financial health of the banks.

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial Real Estate
Author: Kimberly C. Miller
Publisher: Nova Science Pub Incorporated
Total Pages: 235
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781617283543

Over the next few years, a wave of commercial real estate loan failures could threaten America's already-weakened financial system. The Congressional Oversight Panel is deeply concerned that commercial loan losses could jeopardise the stability of many banks, particularly the nation's mid-size and smaller banks, and that as the damage spreads beyond individual banks that it will contribute to prolonged weakness throughout the economy. This book is an overview of the current threats facing the commercial real estate markets, and the future problems facing communities, small businesses and American families already struggling to make ends meet in today's especially difficult economy.

Financial Stability Monitoring

Financial Stability Monitoring
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.