Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting

Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting
Author: Halbert White
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 512
Release: 1999
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198296836

A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

Analysis of Integrated and Cointegrated Time Series with R

Analysis of Integrated and Cointegrated Time Series with R
Author: Bernhard Pfaff
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2008-09-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0387759670

This book is designed for self study. The reader can apply the theoretical concepts directly within R by following the examples.

Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis

Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis
Author: Gebhard Kirchgässner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2008-08-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540687351

This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series. It contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Forecasting Economic Time Series
Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 402
Release: 1998-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521634809

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Anticipating Correlations

Anticipating Correlations
Author: Robert Engle
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2009-01-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400830192

Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Anticipating Correlations puts powerful new forecasting tools into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers, derivative quants, and graduate students.

Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change

Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change
Author: G. S. Maddala
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 528
Release: 1998
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521587822

A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 667
Release: 2013-08-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0444627405

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

A Companion to Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 616
Release: 2008-04-15
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 140517191X

A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

The Mekong

The Mekong
Author: Ian Charles Campbell
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 647
Release: 2009-11-20
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0080920632

The Mekong is the most controversial river in Southeast Asia, and increasingly the focus of international attention. It flows through 6 counties, China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam. The 4 downstream countries have formed the Mekong River Commission to promote sustainable development of the river and many of their people depend on it for their subsistence ? it has possible the largest freshwater fishery in the world, and the Mekong waters support rice agriculture in the delta in Viet Nam (which produces about 40% of that country's food) as well as in Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. China is now building the first large mainstream dam on the river, and has proposals for several more. These dams are likely to affect the downstream countries. Several of the downstream countries also have plans for large scale hydropower and irrigation development which could also impact the river. This book will provide a solid overview of the biophysical environment of the Mekong together with a discussion of the possible impacts, biophysical, economic and social, of some possible development scenarios. It is intended to provide a technical basis which can inform the growing political and conservation debate about the future of the Mekong River, and those who depend on it. It is aimed at river ecologists, geographers, environmentalists and development specialists both in the basin and (especially) outside for whom access to this material is most difficult. This book will be the first comprehensive treatment of the Mekong system. - The first comprehensive overview of all aspects of the Mekong River system - Deals with a regionally critical ecosystem and one under threat - The Mekong supports the world's largest freshwater fishery and provides water underpinning a major regional rice paddy system - Presents the authoritative findings of the Mekong River Commission's research for a wider audience for the first time outside of limited distribution reports