Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Martha Whitesmith
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2020-09-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1474466362

This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations
Author: Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2018-09-27
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3319958313

This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2020-03-05
Genre: History
ISBN: 1839743050

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality

Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality
Author: Riccardo Viale
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 844
Release: 2020-12-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 131733079X

Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.

Patterns of Error: Perceptual and Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis and Decision-Making

Patterns of Error: Perceptual and Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis and Decision-Making
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2005
Genre: Cognitive styles
ISBN:

The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.

Strategies to Reduce Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Strategies to Reduce Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Donald Raymond Kretz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2015
Genre: Cognition
ISBN:

Reports and studies point to cognitive bias as a possible factor in certain intelligence failures, but also suggest that cumbersome, time consuming analytic methods lack acceptance by professional analysts. A reasonable compromise, then, might be achieved by introducing effective but minimally intrusive cognitive interventions (i.e., "mental speed bumps") that induce a high-quality, high-confidence judgment. Prior studies on cognitive disfluency show promise in this regard. The objective of this research was to begin to fill significant gaps in understanding the possibilities and limits of bias-reducing analytic techniques (BRATs) in reducing the effects of cognitive bias in analysis. In doing so, this study examined four specific techniques that varied in terms of their required cognitive and physical effort. The impact of those techniques on analytic quality and confidence was assessed, and possible relationships between individual cognitive tendencies and complex judgmental task performance were investigated. The results of this study were mixed. While statistical significance was lacking in many of the comparisons, one intervention was shown to consistently outperform others and demonstrated improvement over the control group. This intervention, the Check the Item technique, required the least amount of context switching of all the interventions, lending support to the hypothesis that minimally-invasive approaches will be more effective in improving analytic quality. Observations of confidence, however, may demonstrate the opposite effect - techniques designed to improve quality may, at the same time, exacerbate an overconfidence bias. Individual cognitive tendencies showed weak correlations to confidence, but not to analytic quality, suggesting that confidence may be tied to more stable personality characteristics while quality is tied to more task-dependent factors. The utility of the Analytic Decision Task, the introduction of measures of analytic quality and improvement, and the use of response inertia as a means of detecting confirmation bias should all prove to be useful in the future studies proposed. The findings reported here should motivate further research on this topic in order to better understand how analysts make judgments and identify effective techniques to help them avoid cognitive pitfalls.

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis
Author: Source Wikipedia
Publisher: University-Press.org
Total Pages: 112
Release: 2013-09
Genre:
ISBN: 9781230574073

Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Pages: 110. Chapters: Cognitive bias, Counter-intelligence, Intelligence cycle management, Clandestine HUMINT operational techniques, Clandestine HUMINT asset recruiting, Clandestine HUMINT and covert action, Counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism organizations, Intelligence collection management, Intelligence analysis management, Clandestine cell system, Intelligence cycle security, Intellipedia, Words of Estimative Probability, Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis, A-Space, Traffic analysis, Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, OODA loop, Structured Geospatial Analytic Method, Counterintelligence failures, Global Intelligence Forum, Richards Heuer, National Intelligence Estimate, National Defense Intelligence College, Zendian Problem, Intelink, Analytic confidence, Open Source Information System, Pocket litter, Espionage organizations, Intelligence source and information reliability, Bureaupedia, E-Guardian, Defense Intelligence Analysis Center, National Operational Intelligence Watch Officer's Network.

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2011-04-08
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309176980

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process

Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process
Author: Juárez Ramos, Verónica
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2018-11-16
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 1522529799

Decision making or making judgments is an essential function in the ordinary life of any individual. Decisions can often be made easily, but sometimes, it can be difficult due to conflict, uncertainty, or ambiguity of the variables required to make the decision. As human beings, we constantly have to decide between different activities such as occupational, recreational, political, economic, etc. These decisions can be transcendental or inconsequential. Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process presents comprehensive research focusing on cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. While highlighting topics including jumping to conclusion bias, personality traits, and theoretical models, this book is ideally designed for mental health professionals, psychologists, sociologists, managers, academicians, researchers, and upper-level students seeking current research on cognitive biases that affect individual decision making in daily life.