Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Martha Whitesmith
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2020-09-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1474466362

This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2020-03-05
Genre: History
ISBN: 1839743050

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations
Author: Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2018-09-27
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3319958313

This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality

Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality
Author: Riccardo Viale
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 681
Release: 2020-12-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317330803

Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.

Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence

Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence
Author: Dall'Acqua, Luisa
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 273
Release: 2020-08-28
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1799843408

The emergence of artificial intelligence has created a vast amount of advancements within various professional sectors and has transformed the way organizations conduct themselves. The implementation of intelligent systems has assisted with developing traditional processes including decision making, risk management, and security. An area that requires significant attention and research is how these companies are becoming accustomed to computer intelligence and applying this technology to their everyday practices. Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the application of intelligent systems within various professional sectors as well as the exploration of theories and empirical findings. While highlighting topics such as decision making, cognitive science, and knowledge management, this publication explores the management of risk and uncertainty using training exercises, as well as the development of managerial intelligence competency. This book is ideally designed for practitioners, educators, researchers, policymakers, managers, developers, analysts, politicians, and students seeking current research on modern approaches to the analysis and performance of cyber intelligence.

Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process

Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process
Author: Verónica Juárez Ramos
Publisher: Information Science Reference
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018-08-03
Genre: Cognition
ISBN: 9781522529781

"This book explores how these cognitive biases affect us in daily life in our decision-making. It explores the influences through using of these cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. Studying in which contexts (ambiguous or not) cognitive biases benefit or harm the behavior or decision-making"--

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher: CQ Press
Total Pages: 385
Release: 2014-05-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 148331202X

In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Total Pages: 511
Release: 2011-10-25
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 1429969350

*Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.

An Intelligence in Our Image

An Intelligence in Our Image
Author: Osonde A. Osoba
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2017-04-05
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0833097636

Machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence influence many aspects of life today. This report identifies some of their shortcomings and associated policy risks and examines some approaches for combating these problems.

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Timothy Walton
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 309
Release: 2010-08-30
Genre: History
ISBN: 0521132657

In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.