Firestorm

Firestorm
Author: Edward Struzik
Publisher: Island Press
Total Pages: 271
Release: 2017-10-05
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 1610918185

"Frightening...Firestorm comes alive when Struzik discusses the work of offbeat scientists." —New York Times Book Review "Comprehensive and compelling." —Booklist "A powerful message." —Kirkus "Should be required reading." —Library Journal For two months in the spring of 2016, the world watched as wildfire ravaged the Canadian town of Fort McMurray. Firefighters named the fire “the Beast.” It acted like a mythical animal, alive with destructive energy, and they hoped never to see anything like it again. Yet it’s not a stretch to imagine we will all soon live in a world in which fires like the Beast are commonplace. A glance at international headlines shows a remarkable increase in higher temperatures, stronger winds, and drier lands– a trifecta for igniting wildfires like we’ve rarely seen before. This change is particularly noticeable in the northern forests of the United States and Canada. These forests require fire to maintain healthy ecosystems, but as the human population grows, and as changes in climate, animal and insect species, and disease cause further destabilization, wildfires have turned into a potentially uncontrollable threat to human lives and livelihoods. Our understanding of the role fire plays in healthy forests has come a long way in the past century. Despite this, we are not prepared to deal with an escalation of fire during periods of intense drought and shorter winters, earlier springs, potentially more lightning strikes and hotter summers. There is too much fuel on the ground, too many people and assets to protect, and no plan in place to deal with these challenges. In Firestorm, journalist Edward Struzik visits scorched earth from Alaska to Maine, and introduces the scientists, firefighters, and resource managers making the case for a radically different approach to managing wildfire in the 21st century. Wildfires can no longer be treated as avoidable events because the risk and dangers are becoming too great and costly. Struzik weaves a heart-pumping narrative of science, economics, politics, and human determination and points to the ways that we, and the wilder inhabitants of the forests around our cities and towns, might yet flourish in an age of growing megafires.

Trees in Trouble

Trees in Trouble
Author: Daniel Mathews
Publisher: Catapult
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2020-04-07
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 164009136X

A troubling story of the devastating and compounding effects of climate change in the Western and Rocky Mountain states, told through in–depth reportage and conversations with ecologists, professional forest managers, park service scientists, burn boss, activists, and more. Climate change manifests in many ways across North America, but few as dramatic as the attacks on our western pine forests. In Trees in Trouble, Daniel Mathews tells the urgent story of this loss, accompanying burn crews and forest ecologists as they study the myriad risk factors and refine techniques for saving this important, limited resource. Mathews transports the reader from the exquisitely aromatic haze of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine groves to the fantastic gnarls and whorls of five–thousand–year–old bristlecone pines, from genetic test nurseries where white pine seedlings are deliberately infected with their mortal enemy to the hottest megafire sites and neighborhoods leveled by fire tornadoes or ember blizzards. Scrupulously researched, Trees in Trouble not only explores the devastating ripple effects of climate change, but also introduces us to the people devoting their lives to saving our forests. Mathews also offers hope: a new approach to managing western pine forests is underway. Trees in Trouble explores how we might succeed in sustaining our forests through the challenging transition to a new environment.

Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment

Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 207
Release: 2018-06-18
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309471699

Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.

Wildfire Risk Assessment for a Municipal Watershed in Western Oregon, USA

Wildfire Risk Assessment for a Municipal Watershed in Western Oregon, USA
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 106
Release: 2020
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

In the western United States, climate change is projected to lead to significant changes in regional wildfire regimes. Historically, forests west of the Cascade crest in Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have been characterized by low-frequency wildfire events, but climate change projections indicate that wildfire could become a more common disturbance, altering ecological processes and impairing ecosystem services like surface water quality and quantity. Wildfire risk assessments based on simulation models have been used in high frequency fire regimes to evaluate contemporary and future risk, but present unique challenges in westside forests because characteristic low annual burn probabilities result in determinations of low risk. In this thesis, I evaluated wildfire hazard in the Clackamas River watershed (Clackamas), a municipal watershed in western Oregon, under contemporary and projected mid-century climate conditions using the large fire simulator, FSim. In Chapter One, I modeled four climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under RCP 8.5. Results demonstrated that climate change will likely lead to significant changes in fire size, frequency, and fire season length, but a wide range of future conditions is possible. In Chapter Two, I explored the challenges to communicating risk from low probability, h igh consequence events and presented a framework for evaluating the impact of climate change on surprising, impactful wildfires. Results demonstrated the plausibility of surprising wildfires under contemporary conditions, and showed that surprising wildfires will be increasingly plausible under hotter and drier conditions. The modeled changes in westside fire regimes indicate that historic and contemporary fire regime characteristics are not a complete guide for future disturbance regimes. The combination of probabilistic and surprise fire analysis demonstrated the need for robust risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the face of a range of plausible futures.

Utilizing Relational and Social Network Analysis to Inform Community-based Climate Change Adaptation

Utilizing Relational and Social Network Analysis to Inform Community-based Climate Change Adaptation
Author: Derric B. Jacobs
Publisher:
Total Pages: 171
Release: 2015
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Central Oregon's landscape is rich in dry forests prone to frequent wildfires. Climate change studies and improved modeling indicate this region could experience conditions that result in an increase in number and severity of wildfires. With the potential for increased environmental hazards, the nearby communities face potential risks and vulnerabilities to their social, political, cultural and economic conditions. This dissertation utilizes an innovative social network methodological framework to examine current socio-political conditions and information network systems associated with wildfire and climate change in two Central Oregon communities. Research focused on the communities' social and information networks on climate change and governmental activities, the degree of network connections to professionals, and measures of community social capital. The results illustrate that both communities have a high percentage of community members that are disengaged with the subject of climate change. It was also found that within the community social network exchanges, climate change is rarely discussed nor did it overlap with other informational issues such as wildfires and community politics. Information networks on climate change are complex, and ties to climate change information sources do not always reflect one's position on climate change or its local risks. Informational resources regarding governmental activities are mostly media based in the incorporated community and social systems appear more important in the rural communities. When expressed, social capital and more specifically, governmental trust appears to be linked to the degree of concern respondents have on climate change, suggesting that addressing scientific illiteracy may not be as important as establishing or maintaining positive governmental relations. Furthermore, this research may have policy implications for increasing local adaptive capacity, as well as research implications for the use of social network analysis as a tool to address future research.

Implications of the California Wildfires for Health, Communities, and Preparedness

Implications of the California Wildfires for Health, Communities, and Preparedness
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 161
Release: 2020-08-31
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309499909

California and other wildfire-prone western states have experienced a substantial increase in the number and intensity of wildfires in recent years. Wildlands and climate experts expect these trends to continue and quite likely to worsen in coming years. Wildfires and other disasters can be particularly devastating for vulnerable communities. Members of these communities tend to experience worse health outcomes from disasters, have fewer resources for responding and rebuilding, and receive less assistance from state, local, and federal agencies. Because burning wood releases particulate matter and other toxicants, the health effects of wildfires extend well beyond burns. In addition, deposition of toxicants in soil and water can result in chronic as well as acute exposures. On June 4-5, 2019, four different entities within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop titled Implications of the California Wildfires for Health, Communities, and Preparedness at the Betty Irene Moore School of Nursing at the University of California, Davis. The workshop explored the population health, environmental health, emergency preparedness, and health equity consequences of increasingly strong and numerous wildfires, particularly in California. This publication is a summary of the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

Projected Changes in the Energy Release Component Under Climate Change in Northwest Predictive Services Areas

Projected Changes in the Energy Release Component Under Climate Change in Northwest Predictive Services Areas
Author: Meghan M. Dalton
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2015
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Fire management agencies in the United States (US) use fire danger indices from National Fire Danger Rating Systems as decision-support tools. A widely used index tracking seasonal dryness in the western US is the Energy Release Component (ERC). Historically, ERC percentile thresholds provide information on the potential for large and uncontrollable fires, but climate change may alter the utility of specific percentiles in identifying large fire potential in the future. We investigated two management-focused questions: 1) how has seasonal ERC and percentile values changed, and 2) how will ERC and the number of high fire danger days change under projected future climatic conditions. We calculated historical and future ERC for Predictive Service Areas in Oregon and Washington using station observations and downscaled climate models, respectively. ERC and frequency of high fire danger days during the fire season increased for most PSAs over the 1981-2010 period. These increases were consistent with projected increases in ERC and high fire danger days using climate projections, with the most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season. Irrespective of changes in vegetation and fire management, these changes in fire danger have and will continue to increase wildfire exposure across the region.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2009-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0521144078

Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.

Projected Changes in the Energy Release Component Under Climate Change in Northwest Predictive Services Areas

Projected Changes in the Energy Release Component Under Climate Change in Northwest Predictive Services Areas
Author: Meghan M. Dalton
Publisher:
Total Pages: 87
Release: 2015
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Fire management agencies in the United States (US) use fire danger indices from National Fire Danger Rating Systems as decision-support tools. A widely used index tracking seasonal dryness in the western US is the Energy Release Component (ERC). Historically, ERC percentile thresholds provide information on the potential for large and uncontrollable fires, but climate change may alter the utility of specific percentiles in identifying large fire potential in the future. We investigated two management-focused questions: 1) how has seasonal ERC and percentile values changed, and 2) how will ERC and the number of high fire danger days change under projected future climatic conditions. We calculated historical and future ERC for Predictive Service Areas in Oregon and Washington using station observations and downscaled climate models, respectively. ERC and frequency of high fire danger days during the fire season increased for most PSAs over the 1981-2010 period. These increases were consistent with projected increases in ERC and high fire danger days using climate projections, with the most acute increases projected east of the Cascades and during the peak of the fire season. Irrespective of changes in vegetation and fire management, these changes in fire danger have and will continue to increase wildfire exposure across the region.