Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815453

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Public Debt and Growth

Public Debt and Growth
Author: Jaejoon Woo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2010-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145520157X

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.

The Liquidation of Government Debt

The Liquidation of Government Debt
Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2015-01-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498338380

High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.

The Volatility Machine

The Volatility Machine
Author: Michael Pettis
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780195143300

This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture. Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.

Public Debt and Economic Growth

Public Debt and Economic Growth
Author: Alfred Greiner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 148
Release: 2009-07-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642017452

Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.

Money, History, and International Finance

Money, History, and International Finance
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226066894

This volume provides a critical evaluation of Anna J. Schwartz's work and probes various facets of the immense contribution of her scholarship—How well has it stood the test of time? What critiques have been leveled against it? How has monetary research developed over the years, and how has her influence been manifested? Bordo has collected five conference papers presented by leading monetary scholars, discussants' comments, and closing remarks by Milton Friedman and Karl Brunner. Each of these insightful surveys extends Schwartz's work and makes its own contribution to the fields of monetary history, theory, and policy. The volume also contains a foreword by Martin Feldstein and a selected bibliography of publications by Anna Schwartz.

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default
Author: Nicola Gennaioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2014-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498391990

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.

Money, Prices and the Real Economy

Money, Prices and the Real Economy
Author: Geoffrey Wood
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 136
Release:
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781781959244

This book sets out, in straightforward, accessible terms, crucial aspects of monetary economics. It opens with an exposition of the fundamental question of what money is and what it does. Distinguished contributors then examine the key role of price stability and how to achieve it. Core issues addressed include: an examination of the long run effect of money on prices an analysis of the complex and variable relationship between money and fluctuations in the real economy an investigation of inflation and its dangerous consequences an analysis of the effect of regulation on the stability of financial systems in developed and developing countries the relationship between the money supply regime and economic performance the effect of monetary fluctuations on the interest rate the choice of targets for monetary policy. This book will be extremely useful to practising economists, students and scholars of financial and monetary economics.

Public Debt

Public Debt
Author: Giuseppe Eusepi
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 285
Release: 2017-06-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1786438046

Over the past decades, economists have witnessed with growing uneasiness their failure to explain the ballooning of public debt in most countries. This book provides an alternative orientation that explains why concepts of public debt that are relevant for authoritarian regimes are not relevant for democratic regimes. Using methodological individualism and micro-economics, this book overcomes flaws inherent in the standard macro approach, according to which governments manipulate public debt to promote systemic stability. This unique analysis is grounded in the writings of Antonio de Viti de Marco, injecting current analytical contributions and formulations into the framework to offer a forthright insight into public debt and political economy.