Capital Flows And Foreign Exchange Intervention
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| Author | : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2015-07-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513585843 |
Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.
| Author | : Paolo Cavallino |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 71 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Abstract I consider a small open economy model where international financial markets are imperfect and the exchange rate is determined by capital flows. I use this framework to study the effects of portfolio flow shocks, derive the optimal foreign exchange intervention policy, and characterize its interaction with monetary policy. I derive the optimal intervention rule in closed form as a function of three implicit targets. Finally, using Swiss data I provide evidence of the inefficiencies generated by capital flow shocks and quantify them by estimating the financial market friction that determines deviations from uncovered interest rate parity.
| Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2021-02-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
| Author | : William C. Gruben |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 247 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1461561752 |
The dramatic growth of international capital flow has provided unprecedented opportunities and risks in emerging markets. This book is the result of a conference exploring this phenomenon, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The issues explored include direct versus portfolio investment; exchange rates and economic growth; and optimal exchange rate policy for stabilizing inflation in developing countries. It concludes with a panel discussion on central bank coordination in the midst of exchange rate instability.
| Author | : Rebecca Driver |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 456 |
| Release | : 2013-04-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1134261977 |
Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2016-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475520417 |
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2016-04-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 148433230X |
The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.
| Author | : GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 2040 |
| Release | : 2023 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 25 |
| Release | : 2012-02-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475503628 |
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
| Author | : Ms.Linda S. Goldberg |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 58 |
| Release | : 2018-02-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484341805 |
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
