Capital Controls on Outflows: New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework

Capital Controls on Outflows: New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework
Author: Roberto Chang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2024-07-26
Genre:
ISBN:

We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such empirical findings and also yields policy and welfare lessons. The theory features costly coordination failures by foreign investors which can sometimes be avoided by suitably tailored CCOs. The benefits of CCOs as coordination devices can make them optimal even if CCOs entail deadweight losses; if the latter are large, however, CCOs are detrimental for welfare. We show that optimal CCOs can suffer from time inconsistency, and also how political opportunism may limit CCO policy. Hence government credibility and reputation building emerge as critical for the successful implementation of CCOs.

Capital Flow Deflection

Capital Flow Deflection
Author: Paolo Giordani
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2014-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498317499

This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.

Capital Control Measures

Capital Control Measures
Author: Andrés Fernández
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2015-04-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484332342

This paper presents a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data in Schindler (2009) and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), this dataset includes additional asset categories, more countries, and a longer time period. The paper discusses in detail the construction of the dataset and characterizes the data with respect to the prevalence and correlation of controls across asset categories and between controls on inflows and controls on outflows, the aggregation of the separate categories into broader indicators, and the comparison of this dataset with other indicators of capital controls.

A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-trade Manipulation

A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-trade Manipulation
Author: Arnaud Costinot
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

This paper develops a simple theory of capital controls as dynamic terms-of-trade manipulation. We study an infinite horizon endowment economy with two countries. One country chooses taxes on international capital flows in order to maximize the welfare of its representative agent, while the other country is passive. We show that capital controls are not guided by the absolute desire to alter the intertemporal price of the goods produced in any given period, but rather by the relative strength of this desire between two consecutive periods. Specifically, it is optimal for the strategic country to tax capital inflows (or subsidize capital outflows) if it grows faster than the rest of the world and to tax capital outflows (or subsidize capital inflows) if it grows more slowly. In the long-run, if relative endowments converge to a steady state, taxes on international capital flows converge to zero. Although our theory emphasizes interest rate manipulation, the country's net financial position per se is irrelevant.

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513500805

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

Effects of Capital Controls on the Flow of International Assets and Price Volatility

Effects of Capital Controls on the Flow of International Assets and Price Volatility
Author: Carlos Armando de Jesus Cantu Garcia
Publisher:
Total Pages: 109
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The main objective when a country implements capital controls is to prevent large fluctuations in the exchange rate and asset price volatility. The direct mechanism through which these policies work is simple: a tax on foreign borrowing reduces flows, which prevents the price from changing considerably. Since foreign borrowing involves transactions in the foreign exchange market, the price of the asset can also be thought of as the exchange rate. However, the empirical literature has not come to a consensus on the effectiveness of capital controls on managing the exchange rate. Therefore, could there be other channels, different from their direct effect on flows, through which capital controls have the undesired effect of increasing fluctuations in the exchange rate? In particular, can capital controls increase the sensitivity of prices to sudden changes in capital flows? The dissertation answers this question using two approaches. First, I embed into a market microstructure model a mechanism through which capital controls reduce the ability of the market to sustain large amounts of foreign capital without a substantial change in their price. This characteristic is called market depth. The deeper the market, the price reacts less to adjust for an excess supply or demand of the asset. Second, I verify the existence of the theoretical mechanism in the data by analyzing the case of Mexico and Brazil. I focus on these countries because they are two similar foreign investment destinations, but with the main difference that Brazil has implemented capital controls in the past and Mexico has not. In the first chapter I present a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature of capital controls and capital flows. In the second chapter I present the theoretical model that analyzes the effect of capital controls on market depth. The third chapter proposes a new measure on capital account restrictiveness. This measure is, to the best of my knowledge, the first index of capital controls that has quarterly periodicity and that is an intensive index. Finally, the last chapter analyzes two econometric models that explain the effect of capital controls on the levels and composition of capital flows, and on the probability of extreme events of flows. If policymakers choose to implement capital controls for their short-term effect on the exchange rate, my results show that there are permanent effects on price sensitivity that could outweigh their immediate benefits. Moreover, the new measure proposed in this work can be used to find new evidence on the effect of capital controls on capital flows.

A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls Over International Capital Transactions

A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls Over International Capital Transactions
Author: Michael P. Dooley
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1995
Genre: Capital market
ISBN:

This paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on controls over international capital movements. Theoretical contributions reviewed focus on 'second best' arguments for capital market restrictions as well as arguments based on multiple equilibria. The empirical literature suggests that controls have been 'effective' in the narrow sense of influencing yield differentials. But there is little evidence that controls have helped governments meet policy objectives, with the exception of reduction in the governments' debt service costs, and no evidence that controls have enhanced economic welfare in a manner suggested by theory.

Capital Controls

Capital Controls
Author: Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 135
Release: 2000-05-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1557758743

This paper examines country experiences with the use and liberalization of capital controls to develop a deeper understanding of the role of capital controls in coping with volatile capital flows, as well as the issues surrounding their liberalization. Detailed analyses of country cases aim to shed light on the motivations to limit capital flows; the role the controls may have played in coping with particular situations, including in financial crises and in limiting short-term inflows; the nature and design of the controls; and their effectivenes and potential costs. The paper also examines the link between prudential policies and capital controls and illstrates the ways in which better prudential practices and accelerated financial reforms could address the risks in cross-border capital transactions.

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
Author: Mr.R. G Gelos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2019-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513522906

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Managing Capital Flows

Managing Capital Flows
Author: Masahiro Kawai
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 184980687X

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.