California's Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Policies

California's Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Policies
Author: Kenneth C. Johnson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

Abstract- California's Cap-and-Trade system cannot achieve the “maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective greenhouse gas emissions reductions” required by statute because the emissions reduction target (the cap) is itself predetermined by statute.- Cap-and-Trade disincentivizes complementary and independent carbon-reduction actions in capped sectors by nullifying their environmental benefits (the “waterbed effect”).- In contrast to Cap-and-Trade, an effective regulatory policy would empower individuals, businesses, communities, and municipalities to influence the scale and pace of decarbonization through their collective actions and investment choices.California's landmark AB 32 legislation, enacted in 2006, tasked the California Air Resources Board (CARB) with (1) ensuring that statewide greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 would not exceed the 1990 level, and (2) achieving the “maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”. CARB adopted a caps-and-standards regulatory framework, which interpreted the statutory emissions limit in 2020 as a predetermined “target”, thus rendering the maximum-reduction mandate ineffectual. In its May, 2022 draft Scoping Plan, CARB proposed extending the same framework to implement California's new legislative directive (SB 32) requiring a reduction of statewide emissions by “at least 40 percent” below the 1990 level “no later than” 2030. The plan continues CARB's reliance on Cap-and-Trade, which again establishes the statutory minimum as a “target” and disincentivizes further emissions reductions beyond the target - any such action would simply free up surplus allowances for other emitters to use (the “waterbed effect”). To put California on track toward decarbonization at the scale and pace required for global climate stabilization, the legislature should resolve interpretative ambiguities and contradictions in its statutes and institute a regulatory policy paradigm that gives meaning and effect to the mandate requiring “maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective” emissions reductions.

Implications of Policy Interactions for California's Climate Policy

Implications of Policy Interactions for California's Climate Policy
Author: Todd Schatzki
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

California's Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) requires that the State lower its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. To achieve this ambitious goal, California's Air Resources Board (ARB) has developed an AB 32 Scoping Plan that includes multiple policies and programs targeting different sectors and energy uses. Although these diverse policies and programs are typically approached and analyzed as if they were independent of one another, in fact, interactions among these policies and between AB 32 policies and federal policies can have very important consequences for environmental effectiveness as well as economic performance. Interactions between policies are most problematic when two conditions occur: first, a state policy creates more stringent requirements that overlap with a “broader” state or federal policy (“overlap criteria”); and, second, the broader federal or state policy provides flexibility to meet requirements through adjustments across sectors or states (“flexible policy criteria”). These flexible policies can include quantity-based policies (such as, cap-and-trade) and policies that average performance (such as, renewable portfolio standards or renewable fuel standards.) In the context of the AB 32 Scoping Plan, two types of interactions pose the greatest concern. The first is the interaction between the GHG cap-and-trade program and other AB 32 policies that regulate sources covered by the cap-and-trade program. For example, emissions from transportation fuel combustion are regulated by both the cap-and-trade program and by the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which mandates reductions in the GHG-intensity of transportation fuels. When state-level policies overlap with cap-and-trade, the complementary policies will generally fail to create any additional emission reductions. With a binding cap-and-trade system in place, aggregate emissions will equal the cap whether or not complementary policies are implemented. While complementary policies may shift emissions among sources or sectors covered by the cap, aggregate emissions will remain unchanged.

Long-term Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in California and the Associated Regional Air Quality and Public Health Impacts

Long-term Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in California and the Associated Regional Air Quality and Public Health Impacts
Author: Tianyang Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 183
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

In this dissertation we investigate the roadmap for California to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions by 2050 and the resulting regional air quality and public health impacts, form the strategy feasibility and selections that achieves different levels of ambitious climate target, to the benefits and trade-offs of different technology pathways with respect to air quality and public health consequences, as well as the relative contributions of emissions from different origins to regional air quality and public health. We first develop a roadmap for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in 2050 using detailed modeling of energy system transformation, cross-sectorial connectivity, and technology applicability. GHG mitigation strategies also reduce co-emitted criteria pollutants in California. By utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Environmental Benefit Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we find that achieving net-zero GHG emissions can reduce 14,066 (95% Confidence Interval: 10,855 - 17,226) air pollution-related mortality in 2050, 35% of which are in disadvantaged communities. The monetized health co-benefit can offset most of the GHG abatement costs (i.e., 26 -116 billion dollars). These co-benefits are mainly contributed by ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration reductions, while ambient ozone (O3) concentration in California is not likely to drop when local emissions reduce. The net-zero target also requires bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technology to offset some GHG emissions. BECCS technology, whereas supporting the net-zero target, would emit air pollutants through biomass combustion and reduce health co-benefits by 3 billion dollars, suggesting a potential trade-off between climate benefits and health co-benefits of ambitious climate policies. We then analyze the air quality and health impacts of different GHG mitigation pathways. By adopting an integrated approach that combines energy and emission technology modeling, high-resolution chemical transport simulation, and health impact assessment, we find that achievement of the 80% GHG reduction target would always bring substantial air quality and health co-benefits. But more importantly, the level of co-benefits are highly related to the selected technology pathway largely because of California's relatively clean energy structure. Compared with the business-as-usual levels, a decarbonization pathway that focuses on electrification and clean renewable energy is estimated to reduce concentrations of PM2.5 by 18-37% in four major metropolitan areas of California and subsequently avoid 10,196 (95% CI: 8,169-12,202) premature deaths. In contrast, a pathway focusing more on combustible renewable fuels only results in a quarter of such air quality and health benefits. Similar to what we found before, both GHG mitigation pathways may not reduce ambient O3 concentrations in California. Our findings could also assist the development of optimized technology pathway to simultaneously reduce GHG emissions and improve human health in California. Lastly, we conduct a detailed analysis to understand the relative contributions of local and non-local emission sources to ambient PM2.5 and O3 and evaluate the mortality burden in California associated with these two pollutants. We attribute the ambient PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in California to four emission groups: (1) California in-state anthropogenic emissions; (2) anthropogenic emissions from the western United States, excluding California; (3) natural emissions from the western United States; and (4) all emissions from outside of the western United States. Our health impact analyses find that PM2.5 and O3 are associated with 27,445 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 19,277 - 35,885] and 13,822 (95% CI: 6,106-23,659) mortalities in California in 2012, respectively. Our estimates of O3-assocoated mortality are much higher than previously reported, mainly because we estimate 6,354 (95% CI 2,224 - 10,268) O3-associated cardiovascular mortality based on new epidemiological evidence. Approximately 67% of PM2.5-associated mortality in California is attributable to PM2.5 from in-state anthropogenic emissions. In contrast, 75% of the ambient O3 in California is contributed by distant emissions outside western United States, leading to 92% of O3-associated mortality, while in-state emissions were found to contribute to a much lesser extent to O3-associated mortality [i.e., 771 (95% CI 389-1,146) in ozone season]. The different patterns of PM2.5 and O3 we found also help explain our previous findings that GHG mitigation efforts in California mainly reduce local PM2.5 pollution.

Facilitating Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Within the Coastal Zone: A Policy Analysis for the California Coastal Commission

Facilitating Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Within the Coastal Zone: A Policy Analysis for the California Coastal Commission
Author: Nicole Young
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

California is already experiencing impacts to its coastline due to climate change, and more severe impacts are anticipated if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. These climate change impacts are especially strong within the California coastal zone, which falls under the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission. The Commission has a history of rigorous environmental protection and is committed to protecting California's coast through proactive planning and regulation, however they will need to initiate coastal policies with ambitious targets to facilitate effective climate change adaptation and mitigation. This study analyzed existing California climate policies and Coastal Commission policies to identify successes and gaps in the Commission's work on climate change. Key findings include successful state funding mechanisms, energy saving state standards and ambitious state greenhouse gas reduction goals, as well as successful coastal adaptation projects and mechanisms throughout California. Findings also demonstrated a gap in the amount of funding currently available for coastal adaptation. Analysis of the Commission's current climate adaptation policy suggests that the agency should amend their coastal act to reflect current pressing climate issues. To strengthen the Commission's mission of protecting the California coastline, this study recommends that coastal developments obtain RELi resilience certification to ensure that coastal development can react to the shocks and stresses of climate change within the coastal zone. This analysis of policy options to strengthen the Commission's climate policy yielded two alternative recommendations. The first recommends using a market mechanism to facilitate greenhouse gas reduction within the coastal zone, while the other recommends the implementation of a regulatory mandate. Both recommendations offer a suggested framework modeled after current California policy that works to facilitate funding for coastal adaption within the California coastal zone.

Rethinking California's Planning Frameworks to Support SB 375

Rethinking California's Planning Frameworks to Support SB 375
Author: Lauren Michele Hilliard
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN: 9781124025391

Regulatory reform addressing travel behavior policies that reduce vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) and improve transportation network management is needed if California is to reduce the transportation sector's 38 percent contribution to total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the State. This white paper introduces how such policy changes can be used to support California's goals of climate change stability, economic vitality, and communities that encourage healthier lifestyles. Further, it poses essential questions pertaining to regulatory reform for the 3-C issues of consistency, conformity, and concurrency that the State will need to address through actively engaging with multiple stakeholders and other government organizations. The white paper includes an analysis of the theory and practice of California's land use/transportation planning structure, environmental review process, and funding allocation framework by examining local, regional, state, and federal roles in the implementation of key climate change and sustainable transportation laws. Analyzing the Sacramento Area Council of Government's Blueprint-based Metropolitan Transportation Plan under existing State frameworks reveals needed policy reform in order to successfully implement SB 375's "Sustainable Communities Strategies". Without a secure, long-term transit funding source, land use patterns that promote cost-effective and quality transit, statewide pricing mechanisms, and changes to local codes and standards, California's MPOs will not be able to achieve ambitious per capita GHG reductions under SB 375. The paper also finds a need to incorporate federal resource agencies in the development of Regional Transportation Plans, establish statewide GHG thresholds for projects within a regional context, and prioritize network management over capacity enhancing transportation project. Further, it proposes to "decouple" VMT growth from transportation revenue sources by incentivizing local government to reduce VMT and improve network management under a "Low Carbon Transportation Fund" funded by cap-and-trade auction revenues. The State of California is seeing unprecedented challenges and opportunities to create a more flexible and durable funding framework that directly ties new performance metrics to projects and plans. These changes will better reflect the array of values and concerns from Californians as the State struggles to fund an antiquated system that largely does not reflect the 3-E sustainability metrics of the economy, equity, and the environment.

Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change
Author: California Energy Commission. Technology Evaluation Office
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1991
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Aligning California's Transportation Funding with Its Climate Policies

Aligning California's Transportation Funding with Its Climate Policies
Author: Gian-Claudia Sciara
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2018
Genre: Greenhouse gas mitigation
ISBN:

California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allocating state transportation funding. This white paper reviews the complex systems through which California generates and allocates state revenue for transportation investment. It finds that the state's framework for funding transportation is disconnected from its climate goals. The paper also suggests preliminary steps for revising this framework to reinforce GHG reduction goals. Such recommendations are particularly salient given the state's recently completed study of road user charges as an alternative transportation revenue source. Implementation of road charges - or any other new or revised transportation revenue source - would need to address the disposition of revenues generated. The paper argues that California should use any such opportunity to align the distribution of state transportation dollars with its climate objectives, not fall back on status quo allocation practices.

Has California's Cap-and-Trade Caused a Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Firm-Level Analysis

Has California's Cap-and-Trade Caused a Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Firm-Level Analysis
Author: Brendan Gerard Timmons
Publisher:
Total Pages: 222
Release: 2019
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

As part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, policymakers around the world have implemented or are considering market-based emissions reductions policies like cap-and-trade. In the U.S., the only state with a cap-and-trade program that covers every sector in the economy is California, which has become a global leader in climate policy. Though California's emissions have decreased since the policy was implemented, this decline coincides with other factors, such as the natural gas boom and subsequent drop in natural gas prices, increases in vehicle gas mileage, and the ramping up of renewable portfolio standards. This study seeks to determine if, accounting for these other factors, the decrease in emissions can be attributed to the cap-and-trade program, and if so, how much reduction has come as a result of compliance with the program. I also study whether and how individual facilities comply with the cap. Using panel data for firm-level emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board and accounting for other factors using data from a variety of U.S. government sources, I find that California's cap-and-trade program is associated with a reduction in firms' emissions. However, my results show that this decline may be at least partially attributed to leakage of emissions from California's climate policy regime to other states. Further study and more detailed data is needed to better understand the relationship between firms' emissions, the cap, and leakage.

Reducing Greenhouse Gases with Emerging Public Policies

Reducing Greenhouse Gases with Emerging Public Policies
Author: Monique Brackett
Publisher:
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Global warming is an overarching issue worldwide that has caused an increase in extreme weather events and coastal flooding, impacted food security, and created a loss of both biodiversity and unique ecosystems. Certain regions around the world appear to be more proactive in the fight to reverse, or at least contain, the effects of global warming. One such area is California that is currently implementing the Global Warming Solutions Act to minimize the main source of global warming: greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of this research paper is to assess the effectiveness of programs and resources implemented under the Global Warming Solutions Act to predict its success in reducing emissions to specific levels by 2020, as promised in the Act's framework. The research method will include interviews to collect qualitative data from government agencies implementing programs and/or providing resources related to the Act. Quantitative data will also be collected through surveys administered to students and faculty on the implementation team for the California State University, Northridge Climate Action Plan and also those teaching and studying under its Institute of Stability. Data collected will be used to determine relationships between the policy's programs and resources to assess their effectiveness or ineffectiveness. The results will help predict the overall probability of the Global Warming Solution Act's ability to fulfill its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas levels in California to what they were in 1990, by next year (California Air Resources Board, 2018).