Business Cycle Synchronization Of Ceecs With The Euro Area
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| Author | : Carlo Di Giorgio |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This article investigates the possible business cycle linkages between CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) that were candidates to enter the EMU and the euro area for the period 1993 to 2014. We analyse business cycle (a)symmetries for these countries by using Markov switching autoregressive models and synchronization tests. By analysing the correlations between the cyclical fluctuations for these countries, we examine the existence of common features between the individual cycles. By distinguishing between different regimes, we show that the indications of business cycle synchronization are quite high in the recession regime, but lower in the normal and high growth regimes, with the exceptions of Hungary and Poland.
| Author | : Nektarios Aslanidis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper re-examines the issue of business cycle synchronization between the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the Euro-area using threshold seemingly unrelated regressions. This new technique is useful in two ways. First, it takes into account contemporaneous linkages among the CEECs as well as between the CEECs and the Euro-area. Second, it captures business cycle regimes for the CEECs, which are driven by the Euro-area cycle. The methodology is applied to the three largest CEECs: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that while Hungary has very similar business cycle regimes to the Euro-area, the Czech Republic and particularly Poland are less synchronized.
| Author | : Jarko Fidrmuc |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Christian Gayer |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Business |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Marcus Kappler |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 197 |
| Release | : 2012-07-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3790828556 |
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
| Author | : Zsolt M. Darvas |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Silvia Palasca |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 15 |
| Release | : 2013-06-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3656443033 |
Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.
| Author | : Christos S. Savva |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : António Afonso |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some ofthe new Member States have well synchronized business cycles, for some of the other countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area's business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms may not provide enough insurance against shocks.
| Author | : Jarko Fidrmuc |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.
