Bread And Peace Voting In The Us Presedential Elections
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The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election
Author | : Douglas A. Hibbs |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
In this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush's narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by the model's objectively measured political-economic fundamentals - no appeal need be made to arbitrary count, trend, dummy and switching variables. The results imply that the 2004 election turned mainly on weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term. The war in Iraq, which has escalated dramatically in political relevance since the 2004 contest, had a relatively small impact on the election result, most likely depressing Bush's two-party vote share by less than a half percentage point.
The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior
Author | : Jan E. Leighley |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press (UK) |
Total Pages | : 796 |
Release | : 2012-02-16 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 0199604517 |
The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
A Time for Choosing
Author | : Ronald Reagan |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 376 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 9780895266224 |
Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy
Author | : Alberto Alesina |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 302 |
Release | : 1995-01-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521436205 |
This book develops an integrated approach to understanding the American economy and national elections. Economic policy is generally seen as the result of a compromise between the President and Congress. Because Democrats and Republicans usually maintain polarized preferences on policy, middle-of-the-road voters seek to balance the President by reinforcing in Congress the party not holding the White House. This balancing leads, always, to relatively moderate policies and, frequently, to divided government. The authors first outline the rational partisan business cycle, where Republican administrations begin with recession, and Democratic administrations with expansions, and next the midterm cycle, where the President's party loses votes in the mid-term congressional election. The book argues that both cycles are the result of uncertainty about the outcome of presidential elections. Other topics covered include retrospective voting on the economy, coat-tails, and incumbency advantage. A final chapter shows how the analysis sheds light on the economies and political processes of other industrial democracies.
The Message Matters
Author | : Lynn Vavreck |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 236 |
Release | : 2009-07-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780691139630 |
Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
The End of Race?
Author | : Donald R. Kinder |
Publisher | : Yale University Press |
Total Pages | : 303 |
Release | : 2012-01-01 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 0300183593 |
How did race affect the election that gave America its first African American president? This book offers some fascinating, and perhaps controversial, findings. Donald R. Kinder and Allison Dale-Riddle assert that racism was in fact an important factor in 2008, and that if not for racism, Barack Obama would have won in a landslide. On the way to this conclusion, they make several other important arguments. In an analysis of the nomination battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton, they show why racial identity matters more in electoral politics than gender identity. Comparing the 2008 election with that of 1960, they find that religion played much the same role in the earlier campaign that race played in '08. And they argue that racial resentment--a modern form of racism that has superseded the old-fashioned biological variety--is a potent political force.
The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour
Author | : Kai Arzheimer |
Publisher | : SAGE |
Total Pages | : 1382 |
Release | : 2017-02-27 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 147395925X |
The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world′s leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice
Author | : Roger D. Congleton |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1017 |
Release | : 2019 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0190469773 |
The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice provides a comprehensive overview of the research in economics, political science, law, and sociology that has generated considerable insight into the politics of democratic and authoritarian systems as well as the influence of different institutional frameworks on incentives and outcomes. The result is an improved understanding of public policy, public finance, industrial organization, and macroeconomics as the combination of political and economic analysis shed light on how various interests compete both within a given rules of the games and, at times, to change the rules. These volumes include analytical surveys, syntheses, and general overviews of the many subfields of public choice focusing on interesting, important, and at times contentious issues. Throughout the focus is on enhancing understanding how political and economic systems act and interact, and how they might be improved. Both volumes combine methodological analysis with substantive overviews of key topics. This second volume examines constitutional political economy and also various applications, including public policy, international relations, and the study of history, as well as methodological and measurement issues. Throughout both volumes important analytical concepts and tools are discussed, including their application to substantive topics. Readers will gain increased understanding of rational choice and its implications for collective action; various explanations of voting, including economic and expressive; the role of taxation and finance in government dynamics; how trust and persuasion influence political outcomes; and how revolution, coups, and authoritarianism can be explained by the same set of analytical tools as enhance understanding of the various forms of democracy.