Boosting Fiscal Space

Boosting Fiscal Space
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-03-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484330935

Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.

Boosting Fiscal Space

Boosting Fiscal Space
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2018-03-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484347153

Can debt management policy provide a way to increase fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances? This note explores the role of two such policies: issuance of state-contingent debt; and issuance of longer maturity debt. New analytical models determine the debt limit and the default risk under uncertainty, and undertake numerical simulations to gauge the practical significance of the effect of debt management policies on fiscal space. The results suggest that, by managing debt along these two dimensions, economically salient gains in fiscal space are plausible for advanced and emerging markets.

Fiscal Space and Increasing Fiscal Resilience

Fiscal Space and Increasing Fiscal Resilience
Author: Joshua Aizenman
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper compares fiscal cyclicality across regions and countries from 1960 to 2016. It finds that more than half of 170 countries analyzed in seven regions had, in more recent years, limited fiscal space, and that their fiscal policy was either cyclical or procyclical. This was particularly apparent since the 2008−2009 global financial crisis, which was marked by increased procyclical government spending when accounting for net acquisition of nonfinancial assets and capital expenditure. We construct a limited-fiscal-capacity statistic, measured by public debt−average tax revenue ratio and its volatility, which is found to be positively associated with fiscal procyclicality. The cyclicality is asymmetric: on average, a more indebted government (relative to the tax base) spends more in good times and cuts back spending indifferently compared with low-debt countries in bad times. Having sovereign wealth funds is also associated with larger countercyclicality. An enduring interest rate rise entails diminished fiscal space−a 10% increase in the public debt−tax base ratio is associated with an upper bound of a 5.6% increase in government-spending procyclicality.

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2015-06-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513529102

Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2015-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344658

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Analyzing Fiscal Space Using the MAMS Model - An Application to Burkina Faso

Analyzing Fiscal Space Using the MAMS Model - An Application to Burkina Faso
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2009-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451873743

This paper analyses economic implications and the transmission mechanisms of different options for creating and using fiscal space. For creating fiscal space, we consider prioritizing expenditures, raising revenue, and scaled-up aid. Fiscal space is used for increasing health and education spending, infrastructure spending, or both. The analysis takes place within the World Bank's MAMS model, which is a multisectoral real computable general equilibrium model that incorporates the Millennium Development Goals. The model has been calibrated for Burkina Faso, which serves as an illustrative country example. Some of the key results are that absorbing a more educated labor force requires fundamental structural change in the economy; increasing health and education spending can face sizeable capacity constraints; and infrastructure spending has a positive effect on growth as well as education and health outcomes.

Tobacco Taxes

Tobacco Taxes
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2012-11-01
Genre: Self-Help
ISBN: 9290928913

This study analyzes the potential fiscal, health, and poverty impacts of increasing cigarette taxes in five countries---the People's Republic of China, India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For each of these countries, increasing taxes on cigarettes would result in substantially fewer long-term smokers and a reduction in premature deaths from tobacco-related diseases, while increasing tax revenues. The poorest groups in each country only bear a small part of the extra tax burdens, but do reap a substantial proportion of the health benefits of reduced smoking.

Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815453

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5

Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2010-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145520952X

This paper focuses on post-crisis fiscal priorities in the ASEAN-5 economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Sound economic fundamentals and timely and forceful policy responses to the crisis, including fiscal stimulus, contributed to rapid economic recovery in the ASEAN-5. As growth rebounds, these economies are beginning to identify, communicate and implement their strategies for unwinding the fiscal stimulus while addressing long-term growth challenges. In this context, the paper highlights the need for fiscal policies to address infrastructure gaps, stimulate private consumption and expand social safety nets. Creating fiscal space to address these challenges will require raising revenues and reorienting public spending rather than increasing borrowing. Supporting structural reforms, aiming to stimulate private infrastructure investment, could help address long-term growth challenges, while easing the burden on fiscal policy.