Bias In Quantifying Judgements
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Author | : E. C. Poulton |
Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
Total Pages | : 336 |
Release | : 2023-06-14 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 1000930653 |
Originally published in 1989, this volume carefully catalogues and classifies the effect of bias on quantitative judgments. Each bias is described by model and examples of this bias are given. The examples include both theoretical investigations carried out in the laboratory to study bias and practical illustrations. They are accompanied by a discussion of methods of avoiding bias, where this is possible. An early look into this now widely recognised subject, this book was an invaluable resource for investigators and practitioners in applied science at the time.
Author | : E. C. Poulton |
Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
Total Pages | : 330 |
Release | : 1989 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 9780863771057 |
Author | : E. C. Poulton |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 333 |
Release | : 1994-09-30 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0521443687 |
The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it.
Author | : Julian P. T. Higgins |
Publisher | : Wiley |
Total Pages | : 672 |
Release | : 2008-11-24 |
Genre | : Medical |
ISBN | : 9780470699515 |
Healthcare providers, consumers, researchers and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information, including evidence from healthcare research. It has become impossible for all to have the time and resources to find, appraise and interpret this evidence and incorporate it into healthcare decisions. Cochrane Reviews respond to this challenge by identifying, appraising and synthesizing research-based evidence and presenting it in a standardized format, published in The Cochrane Library (www.thecochranelibrary.com). The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions contains methodological guidance for the preparation and maintenance of Cochrane intervention reviews. Written in a clear and accessible format, it is the essential manual for all those preparing, maintaining and reading Cochrane reviews. Many of the principles and methods described here are appropriate for systematic reviews applied to other types of research and to systematic reviews of interventions undertaken by others. It is hoped therefore that this book will be invaluable to all those who want to understand the role of systematic reviews, critically appraise published reviews or perform reviews themselves.
Author | : Geoffrey Ellis |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 185 |
Release | : 2018-09-27 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 3319958313 |
This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Author | : Rüdiger F Pohl |
Publisher | : Psychology Press |
Total Pages | : 452 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 113584495X |
Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations.
Author | : Baruch Fischhoff |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 268 |
Release | : 2013-03-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9401714061 |
Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.
Author | : Keith J. Holyoak |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 880 |
Release | : 2005-04-18 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 9780521824170 |
The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is the first comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. The volume also includes work related to developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, linguistics, education, law, and medicine. Scholars and students in all these fields and others will find this to be a valuable collection.
Author | : Luis C. Dias |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 542 |
Release | : 2017-11-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319650521 |
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Author | : Søren Bech |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 462 |
Release | : 2007-01-11 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 0470869240 |
As audio and telecommunication technologies develop, there is an increasing need to evaluate the technical and perceptual performance of these innovations. A growing number of new technologies (e.g. low bit-rate coding) are based on specific properties of the auditory system, which are often highly non-linear. This means that the auditory quality of such systems cannot be measured by traditional physical measures (such as distortion, frequency response etc.), but only by perceptual evaluations in the form of listening tests. Perceptual Audio Evaluation provides a comprehensive guide to the many variables that need to be considered before, during and after experiments. Including the selection of the content of the programme material to be reproduced, technical aspects of the production of the programme material, the experimental set-up including calibration, and the statistical planning of the experiment and subsequent analysis of the data. Perceptual Audio Evaluation: Provides a complete and accessible guide to the motives, theory and practical application of perceptual evaluation of reproduced sound. Discusses all the variables of perceptual evaluation, their control and their possible influence on the results. Covers in detail all international standards on the topic. Is illustrated throughout with tables, figures and worked solutions. Perceptual Audio Evaluation will appeal to audio and speech engineers as well as researchers in audio and speech laboratories. Postgraduate students in engineering or acoustics and undergraduate students studying psychoacoustics, speech audio processing and signal processing will also find this an essential reference.