Behavioral Decision Analysis
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Author | : D. von Winterfeldt |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 624 |
Release | : 1986-09-26 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 9780521273046 |
Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences and decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, and other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research is relevant to decision analysis; behavioural scientists have both suggested easy and natural ways to describe and quantify problems and shown the kind of errors to which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation of the principles of decision analysis in a behavioural context. The authors break new ground on a variety of technical topics (sensitivity analysis, the value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), and attempt to make intuitive sense out of what have been treated in the literature as endemic biases and other errors of human judgement. Those interested in artificial intelligence will find it the easiest presentation of hierarchical Bayesian inference available.
Author | : Kazuhisa Takemura |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 389 |
Release | : 2021-09-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9811654530 |
This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.
Author | : E. C. Poulton |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 333 |
Release | : 1994-09-30 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0521443687 |
The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it.
Author | : George Wright |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 570 |
Release | : 2013-03-11 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 1461323916 |
Author | : Gregory S. Parnell |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 441 |
Release | : 2013-01-24 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1118515846 |
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author | : James Shanteau |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 425 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1461550890 |
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
Author | : Kesra Nermend |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 409 |
Release | : 2017-10-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319629387 |
This proceedings volume presents the latest scientific research and trends in experimental economics, with particular focus on neuroeconomics. Derived from the 2016 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics (CMEE) conference held in Szczecin, Poland, this book features research and analysis of novel computational methods in neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics is an interdisciplinary field that combines neuroscience, psychology and economics to build a comprehensive theory of decision making. At its core, neuroeconomics analyzes the decision-making process not only in terms of external conditions or psychological aspects, but also from the neuronal point of view by examining the cerebral conditions of decision making. The application of IT enhances the possibilities of conducting such analyses. Such studies are now performed by software that provides interaction among all the participants and possibilities to register their reactions more accurately. This book examines some of these applications and methods. Featuring contributions on both theory and application, this book is of interest to researchers, students, academics and professionals interested in experimental economics, neuroeconomics and behavioral economics.
Author | : Ward Edwards |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 640 |
Release | : 2007-07-23 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 9780521863681 |
By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers
Author | : Simon French |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 503 |
Release | : 2009-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0521883342 |
A multi-disciplinary exploration of how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions.
Author | : Martin Kunc |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 412 |
Release | : 2016-06-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1137535512 |
Behavioral research is making a significant impact on many academic disciplines. Its status as the source of some of the most profound research in the social sciences is unparalleled. Therefore, it is not surprising that interest in Behavior and Operational Research (OR) is burgeoning, even though understanding the relationship between knowledge, behavior and action has been an academic preoccupation in OR since the beginning of the discipline. This book introduces the idea of Behavioral OR, where the theoretical and empirical developments in the behavioral field are making an impression on OR academics and practitioners alike. The book provides a much needed overview that connects together theory, methodology and practice and offers the “state of the art” on Behavioral Operational Research theory and practice. The book not only includes chapters by leading academics, but also includes rich and insightful real-life case studies by practitioners.