Bayesian Networks And Probabilistic Inference In Forensic Science
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| Author | : Franco Taroni |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 472 |
| Release | : 2014-09-22 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0470979739 |
Bayesian Networks “This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation.” Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Second Edition Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates diffculties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 354 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| ISBN | : 9780470091746 |
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 2253 |
| Release | : 2012-12-28 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 0123821665 |
Forensic science includes all aspects of investigating a crime, including: chemistry, biology and physics, and also incorporates countless other specialties. Today, the service offered under the guise of "forensic science’ includes specialties from virtually all aspects of modern science, medicine, engineering, mathematics and technology. The Encyclopedia of Forensic Sciences, Second Edition, Four Volume Set is a reference source that will inform both the crime scene worker and the laboratory worker of each other’s protocols, procedures and limitations. Written by leading scientists in each area, every article is peer reviewed to establish clarity, accuracy, and comprehensiveness. As reflected in the specialties of its Editorial Board, the contents covers the core theories, methods and techniques employed by forensic scientists – and applications of these that are used in forensic analysis. This 4-volume set represents a 30% growth in articles from the first edition, with a particular increase in coverage of DNA and digital forensics Includes an international collection of contributors The second edition features a new 21-member editorial board, half of which are internationally based Includes over 300 articles, approximately 10pp on average Each article features a) suggested readings which point readers to additional sources for more information, b) a list of related Web sites, c) a 5-10 word glossary and definition paragraph, and d) cross-references to related articles in the encyclopedia Available online via SciVerse ScienceDirect. Please visit www.info.sciencedirect.com for more information This new edition continues the reputation of the first edition, which was awarded an Honorable Mention in the prestigious Dartmouth Medal competition for 2001. This award honors the creation of reference works of outstanding quality and significance, and is sponsored by the RUSA Committee of the American Library Association
| Author | : Duncan Taylor |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 565 |
| Release | : 2023-05-30 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1000801411 |
Forensic DNA Trace Evidence Interpretation: Activity Level Propositions and Likelihood Ratios provides all foundational information required for a reader to understand the practice of evaluating forensic biology evidence given activity level propositions and to implement the practice into active casework within a forensic institution. The book begins by explaining basic concepts and foundational theory, pulling together research and studies that have accumulated in forensic journal literature over the last 20 years. The book explains the laws of probability - showing how they can be used to derive, from first principles, the likelihood ratio - used throughout the book to express the strength of evidence for any evaluation. Concepts such as the hierarchy of propositions, the difference between experts working in an investigative or evaluative mode and the practice of case assessment and interpretation are explained to provide the reader with a broad grounding in the topics that are important to understanding evaluation of evidence. Activity level evaluations are discussed in relation to biological material transferred from one object to another, the ability for biological material to persist on an item for a period of time or through an event, the ability to recover the biological material from the object when sampled for forensic testing and the expectations of the prevalence of biological material on objects in our environment. These concepts of transfer, persistence, prevalence and recovery are discussed in detail in addition to the factors that affect each of them. The authors go on to explain the evaluation process: how to structure case information and formulate propositions. This includes how a likelihood ratio formula can be derived to evaluate the forensic findings, introducing Bayesian networks and explaining what they represent and how they can be used in evaluations and showing how evaluation can be tested for robustness. Using these tools, the authors also demonstrate the ways that the methods used in activity level evaluations are applied to questions about body fluids. There are also chapters dedicated to reporting of results and implementation of activity level evaluation in a working forensic laboratory. Throughout the book, four cases are used as examples to demonstrate how to relate the theory to practice and detail how laboratories can integrate and implement activity level evaluation into their active casework.
| Author | : Zuzana Obertová |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 434 |
| Release | : 2020-07-28 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 0128157658 |
Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology provides a practical guide for forensic scientists, primarily anthropologists and pathologists, on how to design studies, how to choose and apply statistical approaches, and how to interpret statistical outcomes in the forensic practice. As with other forensic, medical and biological disciplines, statistics have become increasingly important in forensic anthropology and legal medicine, but there is not a single book, which specifically addresses the needs of forensic anthropologists in relation to the research undertaken in the field and the interpretation of research outcomes and case findings within the setting of legal proceedings. The book includes the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for the research and the interpretation of findings in forensic anthropology, as well as general chapters on study design and statistical approaches addressing measurement errors and reliability. Scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, pathology and related disciplines is used throughout. Additionally, Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology facilitates sufficient understanding of the statistical procedures and data interpretation based on statistical outcomes and models, which helps the reader confidently present their work within the forensic context, either in the form of case reports for legal purposes or as research publications for the scientific community. - Contains the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for forensic anthropology research and the interpretation of findings - Provides examples of study designs and their statistical solutions, partly following the layout of scientific manuscripts on common topics in the field - Includes scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, legal medicine and related disciplines
| Author | : Max M. Houck |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 408 |
| Release | : 2015-01-08 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 0128007117 |
Forensic Biology provides coordinated expert content from world-renowned leading authorities in forensic biology. Covering the range of forensic biology, this volume in the Advanced Forensic Science Series provides up-to-date scientific learning on DNA analysis. Technical information, written with the degreed professional in mind, brings established methods together with newer approaches to build a comprehensive knowledge base for the student and practitioner alike. LIke each volume in the Advanced Forensic Science Series, review and discussion questions allow the text to be used in classrooms, training programs, and numerous other applications. Sections on fundamentals of forensic science, history, safety, and professional issues provide context and consistency in support of the forensic enterprise. Forensic Biology sets a new standard for reference and learning texts in mondern forensic science. - Advanced articles written by international forensic biology experts - Covers the range of forensic biology, including methods and interpretation - Includes entries on history, safety, and professional issues - Useful as a professional reference, advanced textbook, or training review
| Author | : John S. Buckleton |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 477 |
| Release | : 2018-09-03 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 1315360128 |
Now in its second edition, Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation is the most comprehensive resource for DNA casework available today. Written by leaders in the fields of biology and statistics, including a contribution from Peter Gill, the father of DNA analysis, the book emphasizes the interpretation of test results and provides the necessary formulae in an easily accessible manner. This latest edition is fully updated and includes current and emerging techniques in this fast-moving field. The book begins by reviewing all pertinent biology, and then provides information on every aspect of DNA analysis. This includes modern interpretation methods and contemporary population genetic models available for estimating DNA frequencies or likelihood ratios. Following a chapter on procedures for validating databases, the text presents overviews and performance assessments of both modern sampling uncertainty methods and current paternity testing techniques, including new guidelines on paternity testing in alignment with the International Society for Forensic Genetics. Later chapters discuss the latest methods for mixture analysis, LCN (ultra trace) analysis and non-autosomal (mito, X, and Y) DNA analysis. The text concludes with an overview of procedures for disaster victim identification and information on DNA intelligence databases. Highlights of the second edition include: New information about PCR processes, heterozygote balance and back and forward stuttering New information on the interpretation of low template DNA, drop models and continuous models Additional coverage of lineage marker subpopulation effects, mixtures and combinations with autosomal markers This authoritative book provides a link among the biological, forensic, and interpretative domains of the DNA profiling field. It continues to serve as an invaluable resource that allows forensic scientists, technicians, molecular biologists and attorneys to use forensic DNA evidence to its greatest potential.
| Author | : Olivier Pourret |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 446 |
| Release | : 2008-04-30 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780470994542 |
Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.
| Author | : Norman Fenton |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 783 |
| Release | : 2018-09-03 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1351978969 |
Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
| Author | : Anthony O' Hagan |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 928 |
| Release | : 2010-03-18 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0191582824 |
Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry. This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical & Health Sciences; Industry, Economics & Finance; Environment & Ecology; Policy, Political & Social Sciences; and Natural & Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.
