Aviation Weather Forecasts Based On Advection
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Author | : H. Stuart Muench |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 1985 |
Genre | : Meteorology in aeronautics |
ISBN | : |
Previous experiments had shown that upper-level wind flows could be used to advect surface weather parameters to produce short-range (0-15 hours) forecasts. However, to achieve scores better than persistence, allowance had to be made for stationary weather patterns and also for diurnal changes in weather conditions. Two new forecast experiments were prepared and carried out, using data from 12 cases during March 1983. First, data were edited and adjusted to reduce effects of local conditions (altitude, surface roughness), and then were advected. Finally, the adjustment was removed. The forecasts using a 500 mb space-averaged flow with modified initial conditions produced improved advection forecasts, with some parameters better than persistence and MOS (Model Output Statistics) for 2-7 hours. In the second experiment, an improved objective-analysis procedure was introduced, one based on the 'Barnes' approach, which uses one-half degree (about 45 km) resolution and previous analysis as a first guess. (Prior analyses were 1 degree, single pass, 'Cressman'-type analyses.) These improved analyses resulted in a somewhat better score for 1-3 hours (using a 'change-advection' technique), but were slightly worse at longer periods. Apparently, the small-scale patterns recovered by the improved analyses were largely either short-lived or stationary. These conditions would not lead to better advection forecasts. Further examination revealed that those parameters most difficult to resolve in the objective analyses (visibility, ceiling, and wind speed) also had the lowest forecast skill scores for persistence. Keywords: Aviation forecasting; Meteorology; Mesoscale analysis and forecasting.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1050 |
Release | : |
Genre | : Aeronautics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : H. Stuart Muench |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 1988 |
Genre | : Artificial satellites |
ISBN | : |
A previously developed advection forecast technique was modified to include data extracted from satellite imagery. A forecast experiment was then conducted using a data base gathered at AFGL during March 1984. This experiment was designed to test the usefulness of : (a) 3-hour forecast updates, (b) a biquadratic interpolation, and (c) cloud and precipitation information from satellite imagery. The test results confirmed earlier tests in that advection using space-averaged 500-mb winds produced the best overall scores and that in general the scores for 1 - 15 hours were better than persistence. The age of the advection flow (3, 6 or 9 hours old) did not affect forecast score, making updates useful. The biquadratic interpolation procedure produced better fits to observation than bilinear and appears to have improved forecasts. There was but a small benefit from adding satellite information to surface observations when forecasting cloud cover and hourly precipitation. the difficulties of trying to forecast even 30 to 50 percent of the time-change variance suggest that alternative approaches such as mesoscale modeling will be needed for accurate, reliable short-range forecasts.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1036 |
Release | : 1986 |
Genre | : Aeronautics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : United States. National Weather Service |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 299 |
Release | : 1965 |
Genre | : Meteorology in aeronautics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Robert Sharman |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 529 |
Release | : 2016-06-27 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 331923630X |
Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.
Author | : Assessment and Information Services Center (U.S.). Library and Information Services Division |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 606 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : Earth sciences |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Environmental Science Information Center. Library and Information Services Division |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 600 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : Ecology |
ISBN | : |
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 56 |
Release | : |
Genre | : Environmental geology |
ISBN | : |
Author | : United States. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Library and Information Services Division |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 606 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |