Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2017-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1351917080

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Commodities

Commodities
Author: Harold Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 681
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190656018

Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive look at commodity markets along many dimensions. Its coverage includes physical commodity fundamentals, financial products and strategies for commodity exposure, and current issues relating to commodities. Readers interested in commodity market basics or more nuanced details related to commodity investment can benefit.

Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk

Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk
Author: John Williams
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2013-12-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134058381

This book discusses the issues of integration within food and fibre supply chains and the challenges in managing price risk. The problems of integration and price risk are interwoven in agricultural supply chains with production and supply risk as well as hoarding. However, without supply chain integration through commercial trade markets there can be no forward market upon which forward transactions and the management of price risk can be based. Without a forward market that can reduce opportunistic behaviour, there is likely to be little security of supply, particularly under high production risk and price uncertainty. Whilst price risk management is possible under certain circumstances, there are many factors that can prevent the development of forward markets or cause them to collapse, thus undermining the ability to manage price risk within acceptable risk and return parameters. Market positions therefore need to be valued and often settled daily due to the risk of contract default. In addition, the issue of currency risk and its management applies to international market positions and transactional exposures. The book analyses a range of price risk management strategies from forward contracting through to futures and options hedging, and finally to over-the-counter products. Evaluation techniques are developed to aid decision-making. The author concludes that forward market development may be the exception rather than the norm, and that whilst favourable price risk management outcomes may be possible, they can sometimes be caused more by luck than through good management. It is shown how tactics are an important consideration in decision-making to minimize costs and losses.

The Handbook of Global Agricultural Markets

The Handbook of Global Agricultural Markets
Author: L. Nijs
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 603
Release: 2014-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137302348

This book is a one-stop reference for practitioners and academics in finance, business and economics, providing a holistic reference to the international agriculture business. It takes a multidisciplinary approach, looking at the issues, opportunities and investable themes in the global agricultural space, combining research and practical tools.

Commodity Option Pricing

Commodity Option Pricing
Author: Iain J. Clark
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 356
Release: 2014-03-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1444362410

Commodity Option Pricing: A Practitioner’s Guide covers commodity option pricing for quantitative analysts, traders or structurers in banks, hedge funds and commodity trading companies. Based on the author’s industry experience with commodity derivatives, this book provides a thorough and mathematical introduction to the various market conventions and models used in commodity option pricing. It introduces the various derivative products typically traded for commodities and describes how these models can be calibrated and used for pricing and risk management. This book has been developed with input from traders and features examples using real-world data, together with relevant up-to-date academic research. This book includes practical descriptions of market conventions and quote codes used in commodity markets alongside typical products seen in broker quotes and used in calibration. Also discussed are commodity models and their mathematical derivation and volatility surface modelling for traded commodity derivatives. Gold, silver and other precious metals are addressed, including gold forward and gold lease rates, as well as copper, aluminium and other base metals, crude oil and natural gas, refined energy and electricity. There are also sections on the products encountered in commodities such as crack spread and spark spread options and alternative commodities such as carbon emissions, weather derivatives, bandwidth and telecommunications trading, plastics and freight. Commodity Option Pricing is ideal for anyone working in commodities or aiming to make the transition into the area, as well as academics needing to familiarize themselves with the industry conventions of the commodity markets.