Anticipating Balance Of Payments Crises The Role Of Early Warning Systems
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| Author | : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2000-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781557758286 |
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
| Author | : Paolo Manasse |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2003-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451875258 |
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
| Author | : Morris Goldstein |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute |
| Total Pages | : 166 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780881322378 |
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Barry J. Eichengreen |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 396 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262550598 |
An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 475 |
| Release | : 2021-03-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815283 |
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
| Author | : Peter Isard |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 388 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780521605076 |
Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Other countries are also unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and discusses the remedies that economists have proposed for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most non-economists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Dr Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, and a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.
| Author | : Jochen Andritzky |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 261 |
| Release | : 2006-11-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3540374493 |
Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.
| Author | : Silvia Pepino |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 176 |
| Release | : 2015-08-11 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1137511648 |
This book provides an original and timely insight into the role that the domestic and international political economy played in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, combining an innovative theoretical framework with in-depth bond market analysis.
| Author | : Mario I. Bléjer |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 282 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262025256 |
An overview of the financial vulnerability of emerging market economies and how the impact of exchange rate regimes affects this vulnerability.
