Analysts' Earnings Forecast Revision Around Industry Member Firms' Earnings Announcement

Analysts' Earnings Forecast Revision Around Industry Member Firms' Earnings Announcement
Author: Steve C. Lim
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This study examines: (1) whether earnings announcements by industry member firms trigger analysts to revise their forecasts of other member firms' soon-to-be-released contemporaneous earnings and (2) how the revision is related to forecast bias and the announcing firms' earnings news. The forecast revision on a nonannouncing firm is measured as the change in analyst forecasts of its quarterly earnings immediately before and after an announcing firm's earnings release date. We find that analysts revise forecasts on the nonannouncing sample firms consistently in direction with the signs of the announcing firms' unexpected earnings. The evidence, however, is pronounced only for downward, not upward, revisions and for quarters in which the announcers fail to meet analysts' expectations. The findings suggest that a member firm's earnings announcement is a timely source of information for analysts to revise their preceding forecasts of other member firms' contemporaneous earnings. They also suggest that the forecast revision is not symmetric in direction and varies with announcing firms' actual earnings news.

The Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions

The Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions
Author: Kanyuan Huang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper examines the information contained in analyst forecast revisions following earnings announcements. I find that sorting firms on aggregated forecast revisions generates a much stronger post-earnings-announcement drift than sorting on measures of earnings surprises. The strong association between aggregated forecast revisions and post-earnings-announcement returns is driven by the subsample of firms with large-magnitude earnings surprises. This result is consistent with analysts' roles in interpreting corporate earnings. Further, the mispricing is the strongest when forecast revisions contradict earnings surprises, suggesting investors have difficulties in processing contradictory signals. Lastly, I document aggregated forecast revisions are more informative when the information environment around earnings announcements is more opaque, when firms have high accruals and when investors do not pay attention to the firm. They are less informative when analysts disagree with each other. Overall, these results point to the value of analyst forecast revisions following earnings announcements.

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 125
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981627

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

Earnings-Related Information Transfers and Revisions in Earnings Expectations

Earnings-Related Information Transfers and Revisions in Earnings Expectations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1997
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper examines the revisions in earnings expectations for non-announcing firms following the earnings announcements of related firms. Specifically, using quarterly earnings data I examine whether such revisions are predictable based on the information released by the announcing firm. Results of the study indicate that the correlation in forecast errors of announcing and non- announcing firms from previous quarters can be used to predict the revisions in earnings expectations of financial analysts and investors around the earnings announcement dates of related firms. Consistent with prior research documenting analyst under-reaction to publicly available information, I also find that analysts' forecast revisions that follow the early announcements do not seem to completely incorporate earnings-related information available from early-announcers in the group. An additional finding is that grouping firms based on patterns in analyst following yields more homogenous sets of firms than classifications based on four-digit SIC codes.

Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation

Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation
Author: William Forbes
Publisher:
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we investigate the usefulness of analysts' earnings forecast revisions in the allocation of funds to different industries and countries. In particular, we ask whether a post analyst revision announcement drift in prices can be exploited to guide an asset allocation strategy based on industry, or country, selection. Using monthly consensus I/B/E/S-First Call analysts' earnings forecasts for companies listed on the main European stock markets over the period January 1987 to December 2001, we find a significant post revision announcement effect for individual companies. However, the abnormal returns evaporate away as we move from an individual company level to an industry or country level. We provide two kinds of evidence which seem to cast doubt on the analysts' ability to fully incorporate industry and country specific information into their forecasts. First, we show that returns are driven more by common components than earnings forecast revisions. Second, we find that company specific news reflected by the revision signal dominates industry or country news.

Financial Analysts? Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Financial Analysts? Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements
Author: Samuel S. Tung
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

This study investigates the relationship between the dispersion of analysts? earnings forecasts and stock price variability around quarterly earnings announcements. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the empirical analysis shows that stock price variability at the time of earnings announcements is positively related to the degree of analysts? earnings forecast dispersion. The analysis also demonstrates that stock price variability is significantly greater from two days before to two days after the earnings announcement for firms ranked in the bottom third on the basis of analysts? forecast dispersion, whereas it is significantly greater from eight days prior to five days following the earnings announcement for firms in the top third. These results suggest that there is information about the earnings announcement that becomes available to at least a subset of investors prior to the earnings release. The increased level of price variability for five days following the earnings announcement suggests that market participants take different amounts of time to process the information conveyed by the earnings announcement.